Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: IT Submission year: 2023

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2021
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2021
PMs: 2000 - 2021

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
NOx	1A3ai(ii)	18851	19866	22017	23027	23925	26827	28942	30450	33175	37518	38986	38095	34924	36942	36597	36555	38263	41587	41704	38746	41018	42019	41508	41408	43991	47048	50249	52043	55712	59646	18557	19046
NOx	1A4bi	51527	56309	52636	52230	46500	49995	49837	47797	49626	51326	42856	42248	36044	40022	37851	43172	41769	43612	46586	46523	47515	39535	43980	43603	36687	41316	40560	41693	40379	39657	38716	41275
NMVOC	11B	24963	7608	10718	25863	10080	5065	4493	15453	16551	9739	12998	8686	4825	10633	4747	5235	3717	24490	9177	10125	4645	9449	25740	3630	4639	6864	7928	47684	5144	4694	9823	23608
NMVOC	11C	1122363	1121645	1132693	1156303	1161342	1157833	1171109	1188768	1207997	1205884	1224051	1229823	1235899	1255053	1262482	1271255	1281762	1320624	1310520	1325200	1331564	1347377	1369196	1358986	1374449	1383313	1395537	1417894	1414901	1428057	1440754	1461252
NMVOC	1A4bi	99231	114245	104071	104434	103938	108307	105449	111697	112247	117435	106522	100044	61346	97460	62523	106789	125840	174192	206239	198441	192767	124333	176783	176636	151126	161113	155623	170228	143956	141145	133727	145613
NMVOC	1A4cii	68862	61021	57824	53539	53281	49901	50591	42627	38409	35603	31822	28330	24688	17527	19014	18011	16392	14412	13180	12852	12106	11209	10475	9799	9410	8830	7371	6968	6862	6082	5739	5308
NMVOC	2H2	31673	31956	35491	34840	33631	29246	29057	28925	27398	27211	26789	29572	29278	25273	24858	27481	29805	28573	26230	26458	25890	22911	22930	21674	21492	24282	23634	23616	22233	24453	28556	25897
SOx	11B	1902	580	817	1970	768	386	342	1177	1261	742	990	662	368	810	362	399	283	1866	699	771	354	720	1961	277	353	523	604	3633	392	358	748	1799
SOx	1A2c	129091	100888	91560	81175	69583	72553	66154	74024	29714	41962	31820	23759	19741	17467	13173	11770	10697	8167	4099	4879	5815	3645	5322	3928	4410	1784	1364	1231	344	721	509	301
SOx	1A2gviii	65748	65269	77532	72869	68075	55008	53721	46434	22261	9978	7505	9378	8730	7096	6269	3832	2929	2456	2373	1370	377	461	879	1088	792	1073	697	618	431	635	5501	358
SOx	1A3ai(ii)	1253	1321	1464	1531	1591	1784	1924	2025	2206	2495	2595	2539	2331	2469	2450	2452	2557	2766	2730	2501	2648	2700	2656	2636	2790	2947	3114	3243	3483	3694	1157	1361
SOx	1B2aiv	67398	66262	60296	71728	58723	45820	45500	44100	49025	32090	25140	35955	36245	31097	28715	32179	26548	31743	25851	24252	24847	24958	19115	17995	18934	17957	16556	18835	15642	13321	11208	12990
SOx	1B2c	12322	12391	12845	12396	11202	11084	10572	10884	11249	10260	9737	9426	8560	8637	9331	10335	8915	8915	8153	6190	6728	4417	4601	1706	2711	4273	4168	4542	4118	3615	3836	3932
CO	11B	637945	194432	273916	660931	257600	129450	114819	394916	422966	248889	332160	221964	123309	271723	121304	133787	94993	625855	234532	258758	118712	241485	657813	92759	118558	175416	202611	1218587	131455	119953	251043	603306
CO	1A4bi	786717	910719	837050	843502	844437	884529	865217	927356	928367	975782	899291	848517	523697	828348	537439	912517	1075158	1483074	1753971	1688198	1640630	1061277	1487521	1485862	1271066	1360409	1314264	1436753	1251478	1229069	1166674	1270089
CO	1A4cii	278754	240238	217385	188374	187008	171255	174376	137145	117756	110976	98991	88705	77126	45861	59494	58104	56334	52152	49749	49372	46272	44520	43175	41772	41892	41010	36950	37122	39139	37008	37037	35811

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
PM2.5	1A3bi	12310	10813	10997	10019	10394	9810	8988	9095	9369	8496	8269	6916	5569	5952	5969	5604	5130	4743	3741	3645	2451	2879
PM2.5	1A3bvi	5959	6140	6299	6312	6376	6397	6532	6585	6314	6174	6066	6073	5717	5541	6222	5987	5570	5259	5424	5449	4448	5419
PM10	1A3bi	12310	10813	10997	10019	10394	9810	8988	9095	9369	8496	8269	6916	5569	5952	5969	5604	5130	4743	3741	3645	2451	2879
PM10	1A3bvi	11487	11867	12165	12183	12291	12344	12605	12726	12204	11954	11733	11737	11046	10706	12164	11666	10733	10092	10375	10419	8487	10336
TSP	1A3bvi	14691	15141	15532	15564	15719	15772	16105	16240	15571	15228	14960	14977	14097	13665	15367	14780	13730	12957	13357	13419	10951	13341
TSP	1A3bvii	9981	10324	10588	10612	10677	10582	10673	10617	10071	9754	9630	9686	9136	8830	9140	8958	8955	8721	9038	9107	7476	9115
BC	1A3bvi	1355	1388	1426	1431	1450	1451	1482	1489	1427	1389	1368	1373	1293	1253	1368	1327	1268	1208	1255	1263	1035	1263
BC	5C2	869	836	897	861	1055	950	924	921	957	920	909	904	903	867	837	911	958	887	873	867	888	863

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Pb	1A3ai(ii)	2007540	2115565	2344647	2452205	2547839	2856837	3082075	3242719	3532896	3995362	4361921	4489686	4347934	4873708	5134871	5476776	5788539	6329470	6041714	5619081	5847214	5992306	5894826	5759030	5902254	6111854	6419408	6650414	6964591	7223197	2483116	2483116
Pb	1A3bi	3330398347	2486867338	1816351588	1658791051	1504638725	1404279765	1317586531	1206158892	1100293189	953880385	607500328	397501303	1946	1927	1949	1898	1924	1921	1926	1874	1904	1850	1658	1766	1893	1924	1941	1964	1945	1951	1488	1851
Pb	1A3bii	153509775	106397340	72730551	77874695	67592280	63900428	60736349	59714936	50612824	44123193	21402859	11438373	245	262	281	308	326	331	296	285	261	276	278	225	212	184	178	147	197	199	195	232
Pb	1A3biv	222846626	167539665	126352736	118673649	104107173	105352540	100859516	94256911	89657231	80712315	48525749	33061943	939	926	890	786	729	640	635	589	553	551	562	519	467	397	364	326	294	250	226	232
Pb	1A3bvi	35735068	36375209	38510408	39545154	39656154	40655404	41065819	42522770	43704286	44363273	44057972	45828665	46894806	46875884	47137449	47469636	48480262	49132117	47131988	46381635	45416261	45316759	42633116	41308976	48384841	46017285	41124500	38252950	38979339	39090796	31668397	38521732
Pb	1A4ai	7300630	7619219	7691424	8638165	9110998	9762686	10520054	10733882	11257378	12338041	15361615	19374668	18442931	23495989	37312478	39260058	32425776	25570197	18745747	11850210	5014161	5363005	4943695	5053130	5513196	5341025	5142486	5007054	5264778	5060830	4921957	4993029
Pb	1A4bi	6991044	7679045	6951298	6726169	6405552	6750557	6585882	6963996	7180319	7681029	7050581	6822733	4610262	6530781	4509593	7060155	8024269	10608139	12419629	11925433	11424638	7455414	10479251	10442395	8909248	9758923	9408155	10230345	9165932	9041013	8639253	9387048
Pb	2G	2447413	2447413	2447413	2447413	2447413	2447413	4035718	3251562	3094213	5781059	8377589	8339878	8545286	8155325	8580096	10276907	9525051	11488736	9774050	6924915	8426589	8607379	7555800	4927518	5070363	4296477	2776771	3362811	3401462	3362811	2144705	1181299
Cd	1A2a	2109558	2118689	1964283	2025657	2020615	2196083	1953429	2068109	1985437	1915263	1815180	1746689	1679578	1188817	1013894	1195476	1031039	1454891	927447	859734	781844	731845	543672	467023	457985	445651	479386	493871	492364	481978	421308	501145
Cd	1A2b	2877558	3687266	3467790	3309839	3041226	2758708	2937039	2940158	2352796	2166995	2495045	2120248	624105	529928	540283	520465	537464	353303	378416	158563	148526	179529	161290	157154	176368	165037	160687	179070	179271	182094	181228	202112
Cd	1A2f	574193	589092	590505	536127	549530	561995	557798	562593	601553	600508	636560	650795	665143	697805	715004	712813	718800	718879	685476	601467	603343	596682	528166	508077	498809	520923	520170	530434	544258	557592	543100	588237
Cd	1A3bi	212425	215977	228509	235899	239287	244701	246422	248043	263319	265727	267047	262581	270470	267745	270722	263591	267047	266555	267046	259875	263880	256283	229682	244507	261999	266249	268567	271709	269083	269910	205842	256090
Cd	1A3bvi	156686	159477	168793	173400	174125	178374	180051	186177	191718	194520	193549	200743	205573	205651	207083	208300	212724	215243	206449	202767	198749	198522	186795	181016	209358	199804	180735	168887	172738	173331	140753	171298
Cd	1A4ai	381465	417243	407514	493763	523140	575256	633646	654476	713436	796362	967793	1174885	1178363	1387207	1878749	1971255	1597373	1219626	847521	458853	82792	79682	77080	79843	85915	85408	85516	83133	85741	84143	82243	81900
Cd	1A4bi	1008653	948707	846126	710783	587705	594214	564232	587423	696093	848768	766742	794848	668739	707895	545032	637877	578250	602097	673952	652312	572293	406659	502405	487354	408019	446196	427089	450108	401507	385875	365785	392578
Cd	2C1	1319814	1289281	1273341	1327104	1335657	1422607	1244060	1021298	1029372	978926	1065890	1077665	1083591	1105536	1165321	1178670	1287304	1290172	1258565	847935	1074186	1191207	1132042	1035323	1024551	983347	900270	979387	1011162	960243	859250	1031351
Cd	5C2	301592	386645	345916	340411	353089	332728	363837	313725	372359	358352	338405	302929	341225	306478	414388	356133	336792	330626	386117	319594	331831	328130	332314	328927	333704	352898	390632	336570	337583	326246	334700	326361
Hg	1A1a	993702	957507	966556	914871	940004	1022802	973470	934670	927716	871064	922024	894140	970059	995388	946996	868739	884295	831409	808334	703005	675441	666266	667015	581742	535015	575601	527647	530554	472653	426214	371804	401437
Hg	1A2a	972161	964173	915643	936493	950875	1013950	903554	974710	938804	924629	931358	880604	864249	905559	950145	1031001	1075791	1093194	1048649	630008	849262	948602	924354	765682	753021	651750	471555	474556	481092	472078	397643	463692
Hg	1A2b	1629605	1820713	1754305	1730225	1598921	1572617	1628637	1651209	1335216	860263	954062	961728	898172	688119	642695	683451	585442	593790	599650	506606	462032	493862	428942	576608	759709	630372	625368	564084	517855	553318	574122	491074
Hg	1A2f	1274289	1271220	1295653	1071866	1037528	1065698	1049605	1058992	1111350	1152563	1236392	1261273	1308506	1364906	1417075	1422095	1443158	1420448	1279398	1087541	1031333	987014	790213	695270	648985	627308	582268	581863	581697	579828	544198	621350
Hg	1A4ai	337761	367631	364053	425229	444205	486307	530856	544927	588862	651289	784485	967703	950195	1144232	1609639	1699062	1405090	1104815	822388	526755	231520	229092	216643	219241	222635	227490	221830	218169	232066	224280	216625	221747
Hg	1B2d	3395144	3352995	3644880	3864058	3600939	3620223	3964584	4115058	4440136	4639293	4958049	4748776	4912843	5627488	2704443	2148181	2518767	1604244	1590187	1154349	1251594	1175381	2408842	1342819	2054978	980580	404905	851475	715687	425850	344920	193478
Hg	2B10a	2815887	2421451	2123100	1728466	1692096	1651873	1405997	1329203	1067639	990586	943264	821240	652600	429300	562200	483400	455200	337540	221600	137960	123493	159350	53380	40237	25830	37490	10691	32501
Hg	2C1	2299934	2229701	2202193	2295104	2304515	2454581	2146490	2277805	2324261	2172100	2417373	2501491	2569850	2589382	2717729	2687601	2998658	3026460	2980119	2119422	2595688	2852056	2717601	2610031	2600126	2604096	2667208	2910101	3006681	2855696	2557886	3070457

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
DIOX	11B	23774	7246	10208	24631	9600	4824	4279	14717	15763	9275	12379	8272	4595	10126	4521	4986	3540	23324	8740	9643	4424	8999	24515	3457	4418	6537	7551	45413	4899	4470	9356	22483
DIOX	1A4bi	69715	79582	72913	72820	71535	75428	73871	78683	79201	83365	76821	73140	46480	70643	47104	77797	90860	122821	143865	137376	132030	85128	120322	120110	102700	109104	105338	114896	100303	98161	92964	101103
DIOX	2C1	67203	65120	64319	67030	67293	71677	62680	66510	67921	63407	70659	73221	75318	75837	79577	78590	87799	88651	87342	62305	76161	83639	79707	76761	76499	76786	78783	86046	88924	84462	75681	90849
HCB	1A4bi	747673	873717	804449	817347	827579	871825	858421	928433	827579	1003293	928767	875941	542650	877017	563866	981151	1170509	1622615	1918841	1840936	1782397	1142370	1643709	1642501	1405471	1581998	1527528	1672036	1546919	1545666	1489962	1622873
HCB	3Df	118821983	112104898	105387812	98670727	91953641	84086496	64664650	87904600	115419200	27957500	7105750	5616590	1948840	2214270	3587310	1758620	1544040	1578940	1447800	2580730	2411090	2525900	2261890	2489120	3312560	3393120	2853520	2982708	2257120	2403120	2840	2840
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	142410056	136223645	129276467	123167102	116662166	110197294	90499797	114568850	143462737	53246252	33004002	41041202	37887574	38690551	30449737	27180972	29583480	27336631	23380837	16779465	15675772	15772389	15634325	15663599	16977700	15858187	15449587	15795534	14593036	14777016	11150150	12903937
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	142410056	136223645	129276467	123167102	116662166	110197294	90499797	114568850	143462737	53246252	33004002	41041202	37887574	38690551	30449737	27180972	29583480	27336631	23380837	16779465	15675772	15772389	15634325	15663599	16977700	15858187	15449587	15795534	14593036	14777016	11150150	12903937
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	142410056	136223645	129276467	123167102	116662166	110197294	90499797	114568850	143462737	53246252	33004002	41041202	37887574	38690551	30449737	27180972	29583480	27336631	23380837	16779465	15675772	15772389	15634325	15663599	16977700	15858187	15449587	15795534	14593036	14777016	11150150	12903937
PCB	1A4bi	9256070	10193987	9408236	9183957	9114502	9458264	9235225	10032847	9114502	11357980	10486715	10030464	6636174	9954642	6503557	10658335	12253111	16574763	19537102	18747369	17988956	11570644	16505090	16439414	14058306	15823583	15278882	16723956	15469190	15456658	14899621	16228726