Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: IT Submission year: 2022

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2020
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2020
PMs: 2000 - 2020

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
NOx	1A4bi	51954	56779	52993	52511	46742	50256	50083	48008	49822	51477	42925	42325	36119	40085	37895	43200	41796	43628	46601	46536	47528	39548	43980	43614	36692	41318	40563	41696	40382	39660	38709
NMVOC	11B	24963	7608	10718	25863	10080	5065	4493	15453	16551	9739	12998	8686	4825	10633	4747	5235	3717	24490	9177	10125	4645	9449	25740	3630	4639	6864	7928	47684	5144	4694	6091
NMVOC	11C	1122363	1121645	1132693	1156303	1161342	1157833	1171109	1188768	1207997	1205884	1224051	1229823	1235899	1255053	1262482	1271255	1281762	1320624	1310520	1325200	1331564	1347377	1369196	1358986	1374449	1383313	1395537	1417894	1415265	1428972	1441595
NMVOC	1A4bi	99256	114274	104093	104451	103952	108323	105464	111709	112259	117444	106522	100044	61346	97460	62523	106789	125841	174192	206239	198441	192767	124333	176783	176636	151126	161113	155623	170228	143956	141145	133727
NMVOC	1A4cii	68862	61021	57824	53539	53281	49901	50591	42627	38409	35603	31822	28330	24688	17527	19014	18011	16392	14412	13180	12852	12106	11209	10475	9799	9410	8830	7371	6968	6862	6082	5739
NMVOC	2D3d	270665	266038	262226	253509	253073	252492	243832	242888	228545	227902	226001	229563	226355	221648	218648	214130	215903	211963	200851	191476	156837	175985	164794	173002	150063	129835	130709	153302	151956	154398	134873
SOx	11B	1902	580	817	1970	768	386	342	1177	1261	742	990	662	368	810	362	399	283	1866	699	771	354	720	1961	277	353	523	604	3633	392	358	464
SOx	1A2c	129091	100888	91560	81175	69583	72553	66154	74024	29714	41962	31820	23759	19741	17467	13173	11770	10697	8167	4099	4879	5815	3645	5322	3928	4410	1784	1364	1231	344	721	516
SOx	1B2aiv	67398	66262	60296	71728	58723	45820	45500	44100	49025	32090	25140	35955	36245	31097	28715	32179	26548	31743	25851	24252	24847	24958	19115	17995	18934	17957	16556	18835	15642	13321	11208
SOx	1B2c	12322	12391	12845	12396	11202	11084	10572	10884	11249	10260	9737	9426	8560	8637	9331	10335	8915	8915	8153	6190	6728	4417	4601	1706	2711	4273	4168	4542	4118	3615	3836
CO	11B	637945	194432	273916	660931	257600	129450	114819	394916	422966	248889	332160	221964	123309	271723	121304	133787	94993	625855	234532	258758	118712	241485	657813	92759	118558	175416	202611	1218587	131455	119953	155657
CO	1A4bi	787230	911283	837480	843838	844726	884842	865512	927609	928603	975963	899413	848651	523829	828459	537516	912566	1075205	1483103	1753997	1688221	1640654	1061301	1487521	1485880	1271076	1360411	1314269	1436759	1251483	1229074	1166679
CO	1A4cii	278754	240238	217385	188374	187008	171255	174376	137145	117756	110976	98991	88705	77126	45861	59494	58104	56334	52152	49749	49372	46272	44520	43175	41772	41892	41010	36950	37122	39139	37008	37037

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
PM2.5	11B	11141	7445	4136	9114	4069	4487	3186	20991	7866	8679	3982	8099	22063	3111	3976	5884	6796	40872	4409	4023	5221
PM2.5	5E	3078	3087	3097	3107	3117	3126	2688	2710	2730	2743	2756	3216	3214	3229	3289	3289	3689	4003	3887	483	4067
PM10	11B	13617	9099	5055	11139	4973	5484	3894	25656	9614	10607	4866	9899	26966	3803	4860	7191	8306	49954	5389	4917	6381
TSP	11B	15129	10110	5617	12377	5525	6094	4327	28507	10683	11786	5407	10999	29962	4225	5400	7990	9229	55505	5988	5464	7090
BC	11B	4679	3127	1737	3828	1709	1885	1338	8816	3304	3645	1672	3402	9267	1307	1670	2471	2854	17166	1852	1690	2193
BC	5C2	869	836	897	861	1055	950	924	921	957	920	909	904	903	867	837	911	958	887	873	867	888
BC	5E	569	571	573	575	577	578	497	501	505	507	510	595	595	597	608	609	682	741	719	89	89

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Pb	1A3bi	3330398347	2486867338	1816351588	1658791051	1504638725	1404279765	1317586531	1206158892	1100293189	953880385	607500328	397501303	1946	1927	1949	1898	1924	1921	1926	1874	1904	1850	1658	1766	1893	1924	1941	1964	1945	1952	1551
Pb	1A3bii	153509775	106397340	72730551	77874695	67592280	63900428	60736349	59714936	50612824	44123193	21402859	11438373	245	262	281	308	326	331	296	285	261	276	278	225	212	184	178	147	197	199	180
Pb	1A3biv	222846626	167539665	126352736	118673649	104107173	105352540	100859516	94256911	89657231	80712315	48525749	33061943	939	926	890	786	729	640	635	589	553	551	562	519	467	397	364	326	294	251	209
Pb	1A4ai	7300630	7619219	7691424	8638165	9110998	9762686	10520054	10733882	11257378	12338041	15361615	19374668	18442931	23495989	37312478	39260058	32425776	25570197	18745747	11850210	5014161	5363005	4943695	5053130	5513196	5341025	5142486	5007054	5264778	5045207	4975118
Pb	1A4bi	6991044	7679045	6951298	6726169	6405552	6750557	6585882	6963996	7180319	7681029	7050581	6822733	4610262	6530781	4509593	7060155	8024269	10608139	12419629	11925433	11424638	7455414	10479251	10442395	8909248	9758923	9408155	10230345	9165932	9041013	8639253
Pb	2G	2447413	2447413	2447413	2447413	2447413	2447413	4035718	3251562	3094213	5781059	8377589	8339878	8545286	8155325	8580096	10276907	9525051	11488736	9774050	6924915	8426589	8607379	7555800	4927518	5070363	4296477	2776771	3362811	3401462	3362811	2144705
Cd	1A2a	2109558	2118689	1964283	2025657	2020615	2196083	1953429	2068109	1985437	1915263	1815180	1746689	1679578	1188817	1013894	1195476	1031039	1454891	927447	859734	781844	731845	543672	467023	457985	445651	479386	493871	492364	481978	421308
Cd	1A2b	2877558	3687266	3467790	3309839	3041226	2758708	2937039	2940158	2352796	2166995	2495045	2120248	624105	529928	540283	520465	537464	353303	378416	158563	148526	179529	161290	157154	177579	165591	161374	179522	181053	184077	184798
Cd	1A2f	574193	589092	590505	536127	549530	561995	557798	562593	601553	600508	636560	650795	665143	697805	715004	712813	718800	718879	685476	601467	603343	596682	528166	508077	498809	520923	520170	530434	544258	557592	543100
Cd	1A4ai	381465	417243	407514	493763	523140	575256	633646	654476	713436	796362	967793	1174885	1178363	1387207	1878749	1971255	1597373	1219626	847521	458853	82792	79682	77080	79843	85915	85408	85516	83133	85741	82958	82662
Cd	1A4bi	1008653	948707	846126	710783	587705	594214	564232	587423	696093	848768	766742	794848	668739	707895	545032	637877	578250	602097	673952	652312	572293	406659	502405	487354	408019	446196	427089	450108	401507	385875	365785
Cd	2C1	1319814	1289281	1273341	1327104	1335657	1422607	1244060	1021298	1029372	978926	1065890	1077665	1083591	1105536	1165321	1178670	1287304	1290172	1258565	847935	1074186	1191207	1132042	1035323	1024551	983347	900270	979387	1011162	960243	859250
Cd	5C2	301592	386645	345916	340411	353089	332728	363837	313725	372359	358352	338405	302929	341225	306478	414388	356133	336792	330626	386117	319594	331831	328130	332314	328927	333704	352898	390632	336570	337583	326246	334700
Hg	1A1a	993702	957507	966556	914871	940004	1022802	973470	934670	927716	871064	922024	894140	970059	995388	946996	868739	884295	831409	808334	703005	675441	666266	667015	581742	535015	575601	527647	530554	472653	426214	371804
Hg	1A2a	972161	964173	915643	936493	950875	1013950	903554	974710	938804	924629	931358	880604	864249	905559	950145	1031001	1075791	1093194	1048649	630008	849262	948602	924354	765682	753021	651750	471555	474556	481092	472078	397643
Hg	1A2b	1629605	1820713	1754305	1730225	1598921	1572617	1628637	1651209	1335216	860263	954062	961728	898172	688119	642695	683451	585442	593790	599650	506606	462032	493862	428942	576608	759709	630372	625368	564084	517855	553318	574122
Hg	1A2f	1274289	1271220	1295653	1071866	1037528	1065698	1049605	1058992	1111350	1152563	1236392	1261273	1308506	1364906	1417075	1422095	1443158	1420448	1279398	1087541	1031333	987014	790213	695270	648985	627308	582268	581863	581697	579828	544198
Hg	1A4ai	337761	367631	364053	425229	444205	486307	530856	544927	588862	651289	784485	967703	950195	1144232	1609639	1699062	1405090	1104815	822388	526755	231520	229092	216643	219241	222635	227490	221830	218169	232066	222799	217360
Hg	1B2d	3395144	3352995	3644880	3864058	3600939	3620223	3964584	4115058	4440136	4639293	4958049	4748776	4912843	5627488	2704443	2148181	2518767	1604244	1590187	1154349	1251594	1175381	2408842	1342819	2054978	980580	404905	851475	715687	425850	340851
Hg	2B10a	2815887	2421451	2123100	1728466	1692096	1651873	1405997	1329203	1067639	990586	943264	821240	652600	429300	562200	483400	455200	337540	221600	137960	123493	159350	53380	40237	25830	37490	10691	32501
Hg	2C1	2299934	2229701	2202193	2295104	2304515	2454581	2146490	2277805	2324261	2172100	2417373	2501491	2569850	2589382	2717729	2687601	2998658	3026460	2980119	2119422	2595688	2852056	2717601	2610031	2600126	2604096	2667208	2910101	3006681	2855696	2557886

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
DIOX	11B	23774	7246	10208	24631	9600	4824	4279	14717	15763	9275	12379	8272	4595	10126	4521	4986	3540	23324	8740	9643	4424	8999	24515	3457	4418	6537	7551	45413	4899	4470	6381
DIOX	1A4bi	69913	79800	73079	72950	71647	75549	73985	78781	79292	83435	76868	73192	46531	70686	47134	77816	90878	122832	143875	137385	132039	85137	120322	120117	102704	109105	105340	114898	100305	98163	92966
DIOX	2C1	67203	65120	64319	67030	67293	71677	62680	66510	67921	63407	70659	73221	75318	75837	79577	78590	87799	88651	87342	62305	76161	83639	79707	76761	76499	76786	78783	86046	88924	84462	75681
HCB	1A4bi	747673	873717	804449	817347	827579	871825	858421	928433	827579	1003293	928767	875941	542650	877017	563866	981151	1170509	1622615	1918841	1840936	1782397	1142370	1643709	1642501	1405471	1581998	1527528	1672036	1546919	1545666	1489962
HCB	3Df	118821983	112104898	105387812	98670727	91953641	84086496	64664650	87904600	115419200	27957500	7105750	5616590	1948840	2214270	3587310	1758620	1544040	1578940	1447800	2580730	2411090	2525900	2261890	2489120	3312560	3393120	2853520	2982708	2257120	2403120	2403120
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	142409958	136223606	129276432	123167018	116662085	110197283	90499784	114568848	143462727	53246356	33004006	41041273	37887649	38690674	30449892	27179140	29583692	27336913	23378691	16775025	15668180	15762453	15623622	15651526	16963688	15842828	15430971	15775736	14569366	14201297	12981872
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	142409958	136223606	129276432	123167018	116662085	110197283	90499784	114568848	143462727	53246356	33004006	41041273	37887649	38690674	30449892	27179140	29583692	27336913	23378691	16775025	15668180	15762453	15623622	15651526	16963688	15842828	15430971	15775736	14569366	14201297	12981872
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	142409958	136223606	129276432	123167018	116662085	110197283	90499784	114568848	143462727	53246356	33004006	41041273	37887649	38690674	30449892	27179140	29583692	27336913	23378691	16775025	15668180	15762453	15623622	15651526	16963688	15842828	15430971	15775736	14569366	14201297	12981872
PCB	1A4bi	9256070	10193987	9408236	9183957	9114502	9458264	9235225	10032847	9114502	11357980	10486715	10030464	6636174	9954642	6503557	10658335	12253111	16574763	19537102	18747369	17988956	11570644	16505090	16439414	14058306	15823583	15278882	16723956	15469190	15456658	14899621