Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: IT Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NOx	1A4bi	51954	56779	52993	52511	46742	50256	50083	48008	49822	51477	42928	42329	36122	40087	37898	43202	41798	43629	46601	46537	47529	39549	43980	43602	36683	41308	40553	41688	40373	39662
NMVOC	11C	1122363	1121645	1132693	1156303	1161342	1157833	1171109	1188768	1207997	1205884	1224051	1229823	1235899	1255053	1262482	1271255	1281762	1320624	1310520	1325200	1331564	1347377	1369196	1358986	1374449	1383313	1395537	1417894	1417894	1417894
NMVOC	1A4bi	99256	114274	104093	104451	103952	108323	105464	111709	112259	117444	106522	100044	61346	97460	62523	106789	125840	174192	206238	198441	192767	124333	176783	176636	151126	161113	155623	170228	143956	141145
NMVOC	1A4cii	68862	61021	57824	53539	53281	49901	50591	42627	38409	35603	31822	28330	24688	17527	19014	18011	16392	14412	13180	12852	12106	11209	10475	9799	9410	8830	7371	6968	6862	6439
NMVOC	2D3d	270665	266038	262226	253509	253073	252492	243832	242888	228545	227902	226001	229563	226355	221648	218648	214130	215903	211963	200851	191476	156837	175985	164794	173002	150063	129835	130709	153302	151956	154398
SOx	1A2c	129091	100888	91560	81175	69583	72553	66154	74024	29714	41962	31820	23759	19741	17467	13173	11770	10697	8167	4099	4879	5815	3645	5322	3928	4410	1784	1364	1231	344	721
SOx	1A2gviii	65748	65269	77532	72869	68075	55008	53721	46434	22261	9978	7505	9378	8730	7096	6269	3832	2929	2456	2373	1370	377	436	814	1023	769	1066	695	616	427	614
SOx	1B2aiv	67398	66262	60296	71728	58723	45820	45500	44100	49025	32090	25140	35955	36245	31097	28715	32179	26548	31743	25851	24252	24847	24958	19115	17995	18934	17957	16556	18835	15642	13321
SOx	1B2c	12322	12391	12845	12396	11202	11084	10572	10884	11249	10260	9737	9426	8560	8637	9331	10335	8915	8915	8153	6190	6728	4417	4601	1706	2711	4273	4168	4542	4118	3615
CO	1A4bi	787230	911283	837480	843838	844726	884842	865512	927609	928603	975963	899416	848655	523832	828461	537519	912569	1075207	1483104	1753998	1688223	1640655	1061302	1487521	1485874	1271072	1360406	1314264	1436755	1251478	1229070
CO	1A4cii	278754	240238	217385	188374	187008	171255	174376	137145	117756	110976	98991	88705	77126	45861	59494	58104	56334	52152	49749	49372	46272	44520	43175	41772	41892	41010	36950	37122	39139	39396

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
BC	5C2	869	836	897	861	1055	950	924	921	957	920	909	904	903	867	837	911	958	887	873	867

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A3bi	3330398309	2486867316	1816351598	1658791060	1504525040	1404206591	1317513989	1206158918	1100237186	953801799	607500010	397500793	1946	1927	1949	1898	1924	1921	1926	1874	1904	1849	1644	1767	1893	1925	1942	1958	1934	1939
Pb	1A3bii	153509755	106397328	72730558	77874702	67503075	63839856	60670860	59714962	50571226	44071171	21402664	11438060	245	262	281	308	326	331	296	285	261	276	277	225	212	184	178	148	197	197
Pb	1A3biv	222846626	167539665	126352736	118673649	104107173	105352540	100859516	94256911	89657231	80712315	48525749	33061943	939	926	890	786	729	640	635	589	553	551	551	515	464	394	361	323	292	247
Pb	1A4ai	7300630	7619219	7691424	8638165	9110998	9762686	10520054	10733882	11257378	12338041	15361689	19374730	18443011	23496084	37312576	39260157	32425887	25570302	18745872	11850272	5014223	5363057	4943740	5053009	5513080	5340904	5142386	5006973	5265915	5106641
Pb	1A4bi	6991044	7679045	6951298	6726169	6405552	6750557	6585882	6963996	7180319	7681029	7051635	6823900	4611284	6531628	4510511	7061061	8025071	10608771	12420240	11926025	11425126	7455872	10479657	10441202	8908330	9757902	9407229	10229603	9165074	9040335
Pb	2C1	61089583	59545580	58809083	61292460	61646570	65659435	57418860	60934503	61760887	58269905	64081469	65485837	66508176	67460288	70966305	71035898	78351328	78781937	77189155	53359137	66514232	73439926	69879934	65421306	64949603	63654809	65988449	70807742	72855645	69130412
Pb	2G	2447413	2447413	2447413	2447413	2447413	2447413	4035718	3251562	3094213	5781059	8377589	8339878	8545286	8155325	8580096	10276907	9525051	11488736	9774050	6924915	8426589	8607379	7555800	4927518	5070363	4296477	2776771	3362811	3401462	3362811
Cd	1A2a	2109558	2118689	1964283	2025657	2020615	2196083	1953429	2068109	1985437	1915263	1815180	1746689	1679578	1188817	1013894	1195476	1031039	1454891	927447	859734	781844	731845	543672	467023	457985	445651	479386	493871	492364	481554
Cd	1A2b	2877558	3687266	3467790	3309839	3041226	2758708	2937039	2940158	2352796	2166995	2495045	2120248	624105	529928	540283	520465	537464	353303	378416	158563	148526	179529	161290	157154	177579	165591	161374	179522	181053	186752
Cd	1A2f	574193	589092	590505	536127	549530	561995	557798	562593	601553	600508	636560	650795	665143	697805	715004	712813	718800	718879	685476	601467	603343	596682	528166	508077	498809	520923	520170	530434	544258	557592
Cd	1A3bi	212425	215977	228509	235899	239284	244699	246420	248043	263317	265725	267043	262575	270459	267727	270700	263576	267029	266543	266952	259730	263689	256104	227623	244495	262021	266272	268602	270832	267532	268184
Cd	1A4ai	381465	417243	407514	493763	523140	575256	633646	654476	713436	796362	967812	1174901	1178383	1387231	1878774	1971280	1597401	1219653	847552	458869	82808	79695	77091	79812	85886	85377	85490	83112	85793	85103
Cd	1A4bi	1008653	948707	846126	710783	587705	594214	564232	587423	696093	848768	767011	795146	669000	708111	545266	638109	578455	602258	674108	652463	572418	406776	502509	487049	407784	445936	426852	449918	401288	385701
Cd	2C1	1319814	1289281	1273341	1327104	1335657	1422607	1244060	1021298	1029372	978926	1065890	1077665	1083591	1105536	1165321	1178670	1287304	1290172	1258565	847935	1074186	1191207	1132042	1035323	1024551	983347	1028743	1086624	1113600	1055668
Cd	5C2	438036	636789	552925	560686	556847	552420	553169	537010	568784	604648	546534	527658	554132	521770	684407	597463	567118	549490	612954	532733	543527	542150	528621	529862	491760	549664	562728	522481	509504	500467
Hg	1A1a	993702	957507	966556	914871	940004	1022802	973470	934670	927716	871064	922024	894140	970059	995388	946996	868739	884295	831409	808334	703005	675441	666266	667015	581742	535015	575601	527647	530554	472653	426214
Hg	1A2a	972161	964173	915643	936493	950875	1013950	903554	974710	938804	924629	931358	880604	864249	905559	950145	1031001	1075791	1093194	1048649	630008	849262	948602	924354	765682	753021	651750	717633	680366	670752	654561
Hg	1A2b	1629605	1820713	1754305	1730225	1598921	1572617	1628637	1651209	1335216	860263	954062	961728	898172	688119	642695	683451	585442	593790	599650	506606	462032	493862	428942	576608	759709	630372	625368	564084	517855	553318
Hg	1A2f	1274289	1271220	1295653	1071866	1037528	1065698	1049605	1058992	1111350	1152563	1236392	1261273	1308506	1364906	1417075	1422095	1443158	1420448	1279398	1087541	1031333	987014	790213	695270	648985	627308	582268	581863	581697	579796
Hg	1A4ai	337761	367631	364053	425229	444205	486307	530856	544927	588862	651289	784485	967703	950195	1144232	1609639	1699062	1405090	1104815	822388	526755	231520	229092	216643	219241	222635	227490	221830	218169	233070	227025
Hg	1B2d	3395144	3352995	3644880	3864058	3600939	3620223	3964584	4115058	4440136	4639293	4958049	4748776	4912843	5627488	2704443	2148181	2518767	1604244	1590187	1154349	1251594	1175381	2408842	1342819	2054978	980580	404905	851475	715687	425850
Hg	2B10a	2815887	2421451	2123100	1728466	1692096	1651873	1405997	1329203	1067639	990586	943264	821240	652600	429300	562200	483400	455200	337540	221600	137960	123493	159350	53380	40237	25830	37490	10691	32501
Hg	2C1	2299934	2229701	2202193	2295104	2304515	2454581	2146490	2277805	2324261	2172100	2417373	2501491	2569850	2589382	2717729	2687601	2998658	3026460	2980119	2119422	2595688	2852056	2717601	2610031	2600126	2604096	2674434	2916133	3012442	2861063

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
DIOX	1A2b	26955	26320	26992	26855	30016	31554	30319	34563	38179	37887	45977	44021	44830	43997	45724	48134	48784	51075	46300	33255	43599	50764	44706	48007	53418	53189	53846	54775	51136	51899
DIOX	1A4bi	69913	79800	73079	72950	71647	75549	73985	78781	79292	83435	76870	73195	46534	70687	47136	77818	90879	122832	143875	137385	132039	85137	120322	120109	102698	109098	105333	114892	100299	98158
DIOX	2C1	67203	65120	64319	67030	67293	71677	62680	66510	67921	63407	70659	73221	75318	75837	79577	78590	87799	88651	87342	62305	76161	83639	79707	76761	76499	76786	78783	86046	88924	84462
DIOX	5C2	6762	8293	7642	7674	7714	7506	7680	7435	7891	8070	7315	7038	7555	7249	8878	8000	7780	7756	8054	7740	7653	7610	7604	7300	7042	7671	8066	7466	7345	7298
HCB	1A4bi	747673	873717	804449	817347	827579	871825	858421	928433	827579	1003293	928767	875941	542650	877017	563866	981151	1170509	1622615	1918841	1840936	1782397	1142370	1643709	1642501	1405471	1581998	1527528	1672036	1546919	1545666
HCB	3Df	118821983	112104898	105387812	98670727	91953641	84086496	64664650	87904600	115419200	27957500	7105750	5616590	1948840	2214270	3587310	1758620	1544040	1578940	1447800	2580730	2411090	2525900	2261890	2489120	3312560	3393120	2853520	2982708	2257120	2257120
HCB	5C1biv	10361500	10605000	10853000	11099000	11345000	11590500	11836500	11512000	13607000	10575000	9053000	10790000	11307000	11262000	10791000	7799500	10414817	7866087	4868491	611665	28115	76878	125640	122224	117867	117951	23378	86438	96312	122458
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	139437337	133306860	126273689	120223533	113468295	106823606	87295649	110800706	139186707	48976310	27925564	36119838	32855105	33634339	25180637	21610579	23913225	21348157	17982122	12939412	12006822	11427160	12062128	11329552	12068922	11654404	11333527	11175791	10292787	10435029
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	139437337	133306860	126273689	120223533	113468295	106823606	87295649	110800706	139186707	48976310	27925564	36119838	32855105	33634339	25180637	21610579	23913225	21348157	17982122	12939412	12006822	11427160	12062128	11329552	12068922	11654404	11333527	11175791	10292787	10435029
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	139437337	133306860	126273689	120223533	113468295	106823606	87295649	110800706	139186707	48976310	27925564	36119838	32855105	33634339	25180637	21610579	23913225	21348157	17982122	12939412	12006822	11427160	12062128	11329552	12068922	11654404	11333527	11175791	10292787	10435029
PCB	1A2a	39524708	38952539	35125771	37440796	36131497	39994896	35359507	36802911	34908290	32679838	28654805	28308351	25364444	26172181	24910947	30355452	29783742	32902450	32310543	8109701	12652428	14325981	14665112	11386431	11640761	8805261	9795585	8241031	7419413	7425940
PCB	1A4bi	9256070	10193987	9408236	9183957	9114502	9458264	9235225	10032847	9114502	11357980	10486715	10030464	6636174	9954642	6503557	10658335	12253111	16574763	19537102	18747369	17988956	11570644	16505090	16439414	14058306	15823583	15278882	16723956	15469190	15456658