Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: IT Submission year: 2019

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2017
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2017
PMs: 2000 - 2017

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
NMVOC	11C	1122359	1121644	1132691	1156298	1161340	1157832	1171108	1188766	1207994	1205882	1224049	1229822	1235898	1255051	1262481	1271254	1281761	1320619	1310520	1325200	1331564	1347360	1369196	1359021	1374449	1383321	1395542	1413778
NMVOC	1A4bi	99256	114274	104093	104451	103952	108323	105464	111709	112259	117444	107939	101421	63728	100021	65487	109853	128592	176694	208735	201034	195542	126997	179427	179259	153312	165447	159893	174665
NMVOC	1A4cii	68862	61021	57824	53539	53281	49901	50591	42627	38409	35603	31822	28330	24688	17527	19014	18011	16392	14412	13180	12852	12106	11209	10475	9799	9410	8830	7371	6968
SOx	1A2gviii	105462	78620	90504	87602	87061	68004	65671	65863	24707	29910	20172	22590	20129	15550	11372	8798	7602	6246	4455	3476	3599	405	648	1879	920	1151	983	650
SOx	1B2aiv	67398	66262	60296	71728	58723	45820	45500	44100	49025	32090	25140	35955	36245	31097	28715	32179	26548	31743	25850	24252	24847	24958	19115	17995	18934	17957	16555	18835
SOx	1B2c	12322	12391	12845	12323	11444	11019	11072	11775	11446	10210	9540	9276	8510	8587	9276	10274	8863	8862	8105	6154	6688	4391	4574	1696	2695	4248	4143	4301
NH3	3B4gii	12365	12180	12242	12353	12883	12957	13007	13044	12964	12873	12174	13784	13496	13143	12506	12331	11270	12601	13404	13707	13795	14076	14959	15103	15103	15360	16046	15728
CO	1A4bi	787230	911283	837480	843838	844726	884842	865512	927609	928603	975963	899416	848655	523832	828461	537519	912569	1075244	1483142	1753998	1688223	1640655	1061302	1487521	1485874	1271072	1380482	1333649	1457973
CO	1A4cii	278754	240238	217385	188374	187008	171255	174376	137145	117756	110976	98991	88705	77126	45861	59494	58104	56334	52152	49749	49372	46272	44520	43175	41772	41892	41010	36950	37122

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
BC	1A3dii	1404	1381	1317	1306	1295	1308	1254	1191	1163	1128	1225	1151	1034	990	980	935	928	937
BC	5C2	869	836	897	861	1055	950	924	921	957	920	909	904	903	867	837	911	957	885

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Pb	1A3bi	3319597580	2487599791	1826995152	1676129448	1515846292	1413764213	1324764664	1211289244	1104358904	957310207	609515789	398472587	1865	1826	1846	1787	1959	1921	1792	1728	1657	1630	1549	1580	1723	1744	1778	1740
Pb	1A3bii	162708957	106688471	71696414	73248896	64289123	60959519	58738992	58743587	51321283	45425499	20808887	11131206	286	306	317	350	312	328	322	316	344	358	313	276	287	234	205	187
Pb	1A3biv	225134328	166654077	117651285	106662878	97170623	99505137	96479707	91375573	86933410	78171379	47134177	32410475	749	731	710	803	727	631	618	566	519	512	430	427	444	440	422	366
Pb	1A4bi	6991044	7679045	6951298	6726169	6405552	6750557	6585882	6963996	7180319	7681029	7051635	6823900	4611284	6531628	4510511	7061061	8033702	10617602	12420240	11926025	11425126	7455872	10479657	10441202	8908330	9838207	9484769	10314478
Pb	2C1	61089583	59545580	58809083	61292460	61646570	65659435	57418860	60934503	61760887	58269905	64081469	65485837	66508176	67460288	70966305	71035898	78351328	78781937	77189155	53359137	66514232	73439926	69879934	65421306	64949603	63654809	65988449	70807742
Cd	1A2a	2109558	2118689	1964283	2025657	2020615	2196083	1953429	2068109	1985437	1915263	1815180	1746689	1679578	1753499	1782044	2012711	2071730	2185709	2121422	1238731	1720949	1921636	1911945	1577983	1586571	1330609	1452614	1335686
Cd	1A2b	2877558	3687266	3467790	3309839	3041226	2758708	2937039	2940158	2352796	2166995	2495045	2120248	624105	529928	540283	520465	537464	353303	378416	158563	148526	179529	161290	157154	177988	157274	164474	181874
Cd	1A2f	574193	589092	590505	536127	549530	561995	557798	562593	601553	600508	636560	650795	665143	697805	715004	712813	718800	718879	685476	601467	603343	596682	528166	508077	498809	520923	520170	530434
Cd	1A4ai	381465	417243	407514	493763	523140	575256	633646	654476	713436	796362	967812	1174901	1178383	1387231	1878774	1971280	2001822	2767331	2779057	2744843	1978323	1540376	1807495	1999622	2074013	2199534	2448313	2507091
Cd	1A4bi	1008653	948707	846126	710783	587705	594214	564232	587423	696093	848768	767011	795146	669000	708111	545266	638109	580659	604513	674108	652463	572418	406776	502509	487049	407784	449951	430729	454162
Cd	2C1	1319814	1289281	1273341	1327104	1335657	1422607	1244060	1021298	1029372	978926	1065890	1077665	1083591	1105536	1165321	1178670	1287304	1290172	1258565	847935	1074186	1191207	1132042	1035323	1024551	983347	1028743	1086624
Cd	5C2	438036	636789	552925	560686	556847	552420	553169	537010	568784	604648	546534	527658	554132	521770	684407	597463	567118	549490	612954	532733	543527	542150	528621	529862	491760	549664	562545	522220
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	10583945	11543097	10861778	10527462	10158338	10161415	9922602	9913483	9534203	9441639	9641633	9455565	7788643	8000383	8649970	8990621	9137525	9788469	9771905	7858363	7732259	7515826	7662866	7268147	7166917	7095235	7497015	7460771
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	10583945	11543097	10861778	10527462	10158338	10161415	9922602	9913483	9534203	9441639	9641633	9455565	7788643	8000383	8649970	8990621	9137525	9788469	9771905	7858363	7732259	7515826	7662866	7268147	7166917	7095235	7497015	7460771
Hg	1A1a	977264	951674	959757	909830	935528	1019906	974319	935079	1012583	964266	977461	978816	1030162	1018073	982050	891765	907115	857116	805163	696615	674143	666266	667015	581742	535015	575601	527716	530608
Hg	1A2a	972161	964173	915643	936493	950875	1013950	903554	974710	938804	924629	931358	880604	864249	905559	950145	1031001	1075791	1093194	1048649	630008	849262	948602	924354	765682	753021	651750	717633	671423
Hg	1A2b	1629605	1820713	1754305	1730225	1598921	1572617	1628637	1651209	1335216	860263	954062	961728	898172	688119	642695	683451	585442	593790	599650	506606	462032	493862	428942	576608	759709	630372	625368	564084
Hg	1A2f	1274289	1271220	1295653	1071866	1037528	1065698	1049605	1058992	1111350	1152563	1236392	1261273	1308506	1364906	1417075	1422095	1443158	1420448	1279398	1087541	1031333	987014	790213	695270	648985	627308	582268	581863
Hg	1A4ai	337761	367631	364053	425229	444205	486307	530856	544927	588862	651289	784485	967703	950195	1144232	1609639	1699062	1720844	2479754	2492573	2422922	2137591	1697906	1956683	2149740	2221833	2353386	2597757	2656174
Hg	1B2d	3395144	3352995	3644880	3864058	3600939	3620223	3964584	4115058	4440136	4639293	4958049	4748776	4912843	5627488	2704443	2148181	2518767	1604244	1590187	1154349	1251594	1175381	2408842	1342819	2054978	980580	404905	399438
Hg	2B10a	2815887	2421451	2123100	1728466	1692096	1651873	1405997	1329203	1067639	990586	943264	821240	652600	429300	562200	483400	455200	337540	221600	137960	123493	159350	53380	40237	25830	37490	10691	32501
Hg	2C1	2299934	2229701	2202193	2295104	2304515	2454581	2146490	2277805	2324261	2172100	2417373	2501491	2569850	2589382	2717729	2687601	2998658	3026460	2980119	2119422	2595688	2852056	2717601	2610031	2600126	2604096	2674434	2916133

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
DIOX	1A2b	26955	26320	26992	26855	30016	31554	30319	34563	38179	37887	45977	44021	44830	43997	45724	48134	48784	51075	46300	33255	43599	50764	44706	48007	53418	53189	53846	54775
DIOX	1A4bi	69913	79800	73079	72950	71647	75549	73985	78781	79292	83435	76870	73195	46534	70687	47136	77818	90922	122876	143875	137385	132039	85137	120322	120109	102698	109098	105333	114892
DIOX	2C1	67203	65120	64319	67030	67293	71677	62680	66510	67921	63407	70659	73221	75318	75837	79577	78590	87799	88651	87342	62305	76161	83639	79707	76761	76499	76786	78783	86046
DIOX	5C2	6762	8293	7642	7674	7714	7506	7680	7435	7891	8070	7315	7038	7555	7249	8878	8000	7780	7756	8054	7740	7653	7610	7604	7300	7042	7671	8056	7453
HCB	1A2a	4384163	4320697	3896224	4153011	4007781	4436317	3922150	4082255	3872100	3624915	3178451	3140021	2813477	2903073	2763174	3367090	3303675	3649608	3583953	1880180	2933381	3321384	3400009	2639868	2698833	2041441	2271041	1910628
HCB	1A4bi	747673	873717	804449	817347	827579	871825	858421	928433	827579	1003293	928767	875941	542650	877017	563866	981151	1170509	1622615	1918841	1840936	1782397	1142370	1643709	1642501	1405471	1581998	1527528	1672036
PCB	1A2a	39524708	38952539	35125771	37440796	36131497	39994896	35359507	36802911	34908290	32679838	28654805	28308351	25364444	26172181	24910947	30355452	29783742	32902450	32310543	8109701	12652428	14325981	14665112	11386431	11640761	8805261	9795585	8241031
PCB	1A2gviii	8055746	6316052	6870281	7747511	8784802	6440488	6331873	6085903	4580326	5730329	4321418	5451583	5340556	5310782	4337883	3734839	3932305	3542064	3515584	1705187	1655455	57937	52746	472773	72086	698486	842400	563454
PCB	1A4bi	9256070	10193987	9408236	9183957	9114502	9458264	9235225	10032847	9114502	11357980	10486715	10030464	6636174	9954642	6503557	10658335	12253111	16574763	19537102	18747369	17988956	11570644	16505090	16439414	14058306	15823583	15278882	16723956
PCB	2C1	91680941	90362239	89250718	93012379	93861306	99975982	87425946	92769214	92816179	89209285	95841220	95494302	94685137	97408800	102970800	105656400	113846400	113587200	110124000	71452800	92700000	103446000	98125200	86688000	85370400	79264800	84142800	86644800