Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: IT Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
NMVOC	11C	1122359	1121644	1132691	1156298	1161340	1157832	1171108	1188766	1207994	1205882	1224049	1229822	1235898	1255051	1262481	1271254	1281761	1320619	1310520	1325200	1331564	1347360	1369196	1359021	1374449	1383321	1395542
NMVOC	1A4bi	99275	114295	104117	104477	103983	108350	105491	111740	112285	117475	107975	101450	63753	100045	65510	109873	128617	176718	208746	201057	195568	127023	179450	179280	153335	172686	166884
NMVOC	1A4cii	68862	61021	57824	53539	53281	49901	50591	42627	38409	35603	31822	28330	24688	17527	19014	18011	16392	14412	13180	12852	12106	11209	10475	9799	9410	8830	7371
SOx	1A2gviii	105462	78620	90504	87602	87061	68004	65671	65863	24707	29910	20172	22590	20129	15550	11372	7870	7091	5500	3516	2978	3551	1716	651	1878	924	1151	754
SOx	1B2aiv	67398	66262	60296	71728	58723	45820	45500	44100	49025	32090	25140	35955	36245	31097	28715	32179	26548	31743	25850	24252	24847	24958	19115	17995	18934	17957	16555
SOx	1B2c	12322	12391	12845	12323	11444	11019	11072	11775	11446	10210	9540	9276	8510	8587	9276	10274	8863	8862	8105	6154	6688	4391	4574	1696	2695	4248	4143
NH3	3B4gii	12365	12180	12242	12353	12883	12957	13007	13044	12964	12873	12174	13784	13496	13143	12506	12331	11270	12601	13404	13707	13795	14076	15033	15178	15178	15467	16190
CO	1A4bi	787378	911451	837668	844046	844975	885061	865733	927863	928820	976217	899715	848902	524041	828656	537706	912742	1075454	1483346	1754092	1688417	1640875	1061522	1487709	1486052	1271262	1431525	1382951
CO	1A4cii	278754	240238	217385	188374	187008	171255	174376	137145	117756	110976	98991	88705	77126	45861	59494	58104	56334	52152	49749	49372	46272	44520	43175	41772	41892	41010	36950

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
BC	1A3dii	1404	1381	1317	1306	1295	1308	1254	1191	1163	1128	1225	1151	1034	990	980	935	913
BC	5C2	869	836	897	861	1055	950	924	921	957	920	909	904	903	867	837	911	956

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A3bi	3321717755	2488307749	1828069293	1677333265	1517092847	1418984763	1330410439	1217316932	1111274354	964763766	611134947	400177486	1882994	1844499	1863525	1805296	1963505	1925524	1793424	1722585	1646586	1613745	1541619	1572455	1707690	1719392	1701086
Pb	1A3bii	163846387	106810194	71849312	73415825	64467093	61831815	59695402	59764616	52466705	46637194	21097647	11405385	285739	305651	317148	349734	312488	330185	325177	318834	347266	361295	316836	279511	290072	235037	235133
Pb	1A3biv	225615412	167189186	118241502	107312758	97878279	100467185	97523500	92499128	88145417	79433075	47891804	33156685	748763	730796	710081	802278	714845	615646	599840	547373	496672	486074	410085	405250	419932	414073	396780
Pb	1A4bi	6992030	7680167	6952554	6727558	6407212	6752019	6587356	6965688	7181772	7682719	7053636	6825560	4612694	6532946	4511782	7062239	8035144	10618997	12420880	11927348	11426622	7457365	10480949	10442428	8909644	10010768	9651498
Pb	2C1	61089583	59545580	58809083	61292460	61646570	65659435	57418860	60934503	61760887	58269905	64081469	65485837	66508176	67460288	70966305	71035898	78351328	78781937	77189155	53359137	66514232	73439926	69879934	65421306	64949603	63654809	65988449
Cd	1A2a	2109558	2118689	1964283	2025657	2020615	2196083	1953429	2068109	1985437	1915263	1815180	1746689	1679578	1753499	1782044	2012711	2071730	2185709	2121422	1238731	1720949	1921636	1911945	1577983	1586571	1330609	1452614
Cd	1A2b	2877558	3687266	3467790	3309839	3041226	2758708	2937039	2940158	2352796	2166995	2495045	2120248	624105	529928	540283	520465	537464	353303	378416	158563	148526	179529	161290	157154	177988	157274	170300
Cd	1A2f	574193	589092	590505	536127	549530	561995	557798	562593	601553	600508	636560	650795	665143	697805	715004	712813	718800	718879	685476	601467	603343	596682	528166	508077	498809	520923	520170
Cd	1A4ai	381465	417243	407514	493763	523140	575256	633646	654476	713436	796362	967812	1174901	1178383	1387231	1878774	1971280	2001822	2767331	2779057	2744843	1978323	1540376	1809202	2000487	2102453	2198672	2417264
Cd	1A4bi	1008695	948754	846178	710840	587773	594274	564292	587491	696151	848835	767090	795211	669056	708163	545316	638154	580715	604567	674133	652515	572477	406836	502561	487098	407837	458201	438699
Cd	2C1	1319814	1289281	1273341	1327104	1335657	1422607	1244060	1021298	1029372	978926	1065890	1077665	1083591	1105536	1165321	1178670	1287304	1290172	1258565	847935	1074186	1191207	1132042	1035323	1024551	983347	1028743
Hg	1A1a	977264	951674	959757	909830	935528	1019906	974319	935079	1012583	964266	977461	978816	1030162	1018073	982050	918740	920428	882334	816555	699812	658174	661263	667015	581742	535015	575601	527723
Hg	1A2a	972161	964173	915643	936493	950875	1013950	903554	974710	938804	924629	931358	880604	864249	905559	950145	1031001	1075791	1093194	1048649	630008	849262	948602	924354	765682	753021	651750	717633
Hg	1A2b	1629605	1820713	1754305	1730225	1598921	1572617	1628637	1651209	1335216	860263	954062	961728	898172	688119	642695	683451	585442	593790	599650	506606	462032	493862	428942	576608	759709	630372	625368
Hg	1A2f	1274289	1271220	1295653	1071866	1037528	1065698	1049605	1058992	1111350	1152563	1236392	1261273	1308506	1364906	1417075	1422095	1443158	1420448	1279398	1087541	1031333	987014	790213	695270	648985	627308	582268
Hg	1A4ai	339148	370633	371432	429365	446992	488613	532561	547564	590445	652805	786611	968986	951342	1147302	1613452	1702476	1723622	2485104	2496075	2425325	2141216	1701020	1962068	2152539	2252619	2354586	2569887
Hg	1B2d	3395144	3352995	3644880	3864058	3600939	3620223	3964584	4115058	4440136	4639293	4958049	4748776	4912843	5627488	2704443	2148181	2518767	1604244	1590187	1154349	1251594	1175381	2408842	1342819	2054978	980580	397440
Hg	2B10a	2815887	2421451	2123100	1728466	1692096	1651873	1405997	1329203	1067639	990586	943264	821240	652600	429300	562200	483400	455200	337540	221600	137960	123493	159350	53380	40237	25830	37490	10691
Hg	2C1	2299934	2229701	2202193	2295104	2304515	2454581	2146490	2277805	2324261	2172100	2417373	2501491	2569850	2589382	2717729	2687601	2998658	3026460	2980119	2119422	2595688	2852056	2717601	2610031	2600126	2604096	2674434

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
DIOX	1A2b	26955	26320	26992	26855	30016	31554	30319	34563	38179	37887	45977	44021	44830	43997	45724	48134	48784	51075	46300	33255	43599	50764	44706	48007	53418	53189	53834
DIOX	1A4bi	69925	79813	73094	72967	71667	75567	74003	78802	79309	83455	76895	73216	46551	70703	47152	77832	90940	122893	143883	137401	132056	85155	120337	120123	102713	115563	111577
DIOX	2C1	67203	65120	64319	67030	67293	71677	62680	66510	67921	63407	70659	73221	75318	75837	79577	78590	87799	88651	87342	62305	76161	83639	79707	76761	76499	76786	78783
DIOX	5C2	6762	8293	7642	7674	7714	7506	7680	7435	7891	8070	7315	7038	7555	7249	8878	8000	7780	7756	8054	7740	7653	7610	7604	7300	7042	7671	8044
HCB	1A2a	4384163	4320697	3896224	4153011	4007781	4436317	3922150	4082255	3872100	3624915	3178451	3140021	2813477	2903073	2763174	3367090	3303675	3649608	3583953	1880180	2933381	3321384	3400009	2639868	2698833	2041441	2271041
HCB	1A4bi	747821	873887	804640	817560	827835	872052	858652	928700	827835	1003563	929087	876208	542877	877230	564072	981343	1170743	1622841	1918945	1841151	1782640	1142612	1643918	1642700	1405684	1583461	1528958
HCB	5C1biv	10361500	10605000	10853000	11099000	11345000	11590500	11836500	11512000	13607000	10575000	9053000	10790000	11307000	11262000	10791000	7799500	12988000	13028500	12002000	2947500	2991000	8178500	13366000	13002500	12539000	12548000	12706872
PCB	1A2a	39524708	38952539	35125771	37440796	36131497	39994896	35359507	36802911	34908290	32679838	28654805	28308351	25364444	26172181	24910947	30355452	29783742	32902450	32310543	8109701	12652428	14325981	14665112	11386431	11640761	8805261	9795585
PCB	1A2gviii	8055746	6316052	6870281	7747511	8784802	6440488	6331873	6085903	4580326	5730329	4321418	5451583	5340556	5310782	4337883	3734839	3932305	3542064	3515584	1705187	1655455	979200	52746	472773	72086	698486	3268
PCB	1A4bi	9257549	10195682	9410147	9186084	9117062	9460535	9237533	10035516	9117062	11360685	10489925	10033132	6638446	9956770	6505613	10660246	12255455	16577029	19538142	18749517	17991385	11573067	16507187	16441404	14060439	15838211	15293182
PCB	2C1	91680941	90362239	89250718	93012379	93861306	99975982	87425946	92769214	92816179	89209285	95841220	95494302	94685137	97408800	102970800	105656400	113846400	113587200	110124000	71452800	92700000	103446000	98125200	86688000	85370400	79264800	84142800