Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: IT Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NOx	1A3bii	66756	61562	63974	71942	71693	70617	71835	74405	78680	78849	85746	76320	75685	79814	83357	87815	72786	75918	73737	70993	75732	78433	68034	59240	62118	51242
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	2031745	2100599	2134704	2034319	1934584	1906991	1833992	1758974	1646698	1551615	1450525	1413270	1353694	1338978	1293156	1233337	1168590	1125732	1043427	964754	948461	915168	851932	798547	786637	763009
NOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	2031745	2100599	2134704	2034319	1934584	1906991	1833992	1758974	1646698	1551615	1450525	1413270	1353694	1338978	1293156	1233337	1168590	1125732	1043427	964754	948461	915168	851932	798547	786637	763009
NMVOC	11C	1122248	1121610	1132641	1156168	1161287	1157809	1171086	1188695	1207912	1205838	1223984	1229779	1235875	1255002	1262458	1271230	1281743	1320488	1310483	1325110	1331506	1347303	1369002	1359004	1374411	1383310
NMVOC	1A3bi	477180	510200	544794	551995	511578	504818	481201	429796	378902	329464	273658	233119	207115	172439	140147	116152	93846	71618	59264	49833	43557	35511	30808	28437	25918	24533
NMVOC	1A4bi	99212	114217	104048	104418	103921	108293	105451	111687	112233	117420	107926	101374	63734	100003	65516	109850	128713	176778	208615	200981	195504	126939	179326	179176	153297	172635
NMVOC	1A4cii	68853	61013	57816	53527	53269	49889	50579	42615	38397	35592	31811	28320	24678	17518	19005	18002	16384	14405	13174	12846	12100	11203	10470	9794	9406	8825
NMVOC	2D3d	270665	266038	262226	253509	253073	252492	243832	242888	228545	227902	226001	229563	226355	221648	218648	214130	215903	211963	200851	189777	156373	174425	163102	173208	155384	166696
NMVOC	2D3g	77251	86680	98275	97150	99977	85984	85078	80562	79543	77734	82675	74444	70298	65483	64329	59724	62285	62008	58105	55246	54988	54508	52347	53287	51692	51883
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	1935533	2001784	2075710	2060711	2010968	1967024	1908210	1853770	1751402	1679486	1515935	1429139	1340775	1325529	1219080	1232407	1196659	1169678	1140239	1061858	1001243	910650	907086	876937	821320	842074
NMVOC	NTCOMPLIANCE	1935533	2001784	2075710	2060711	2010968	1967024	1908210	1853770	1751402	1679486	1515935	1429139	1340775	1325529	1219080	1232407	1196659	1169678	1140239	1061858	1001243	910650	907086	876937	821320	842074
SOx	1A1b	192212	187100	193000	167079	159046	144212	143535	142700	113751	116129	86941	74668	82996	73652	72161	63036	53518	48259	45443	37959	40893	32271	27045	17811	9526	10233
SOx	1B2aiv	67398	66262	60296	71728	58723	45820	45500	44100	49025	32090	25140	35955	36245	31097	28715	32179	26548	31743	25850	24252	24847	24958	19115	17995	18934	17957
SOx	1B2c	12322	12391	12845	12323	11444	11019	11072	11775	11446	10210	9540	9276	8510	8587	9276	10274	8863	8862	8105	6154	6688	4391	4574	1696	2695	4248
NH3	3B1a	98287	86793	79399	78159	73996	76270	76069	75775	76927	77042	74627	74861	68652	68537	65847	65978	65239	65863	65574	67283	62545	62861	66516	66699	65584	65423
NH3	3B1b	84813	94695	91020	88782	87453	84714	82839	82619	80055	80909	80628	75988	74429	74348	71670	70368	66897	71007	69393	67944	65246	65655	64114	65451	63984	64463
NH3	3B4gii	12365	12180	12242	12353	12883	12957	13007	13044	12964	12873	12174	13784	13496	13143	12506	12331	11270	12601	13404	13707	13795	14076	15033	15178	15178	15467
NH3	3Da2c	2952	3002	3057	3118	3186	3262	3347	3440	3364	3554	4385	6073	5974	6414	6229	4761	6851	6305	6560	7532	8421	20089	9896	11635	14808	11805
CO	1A3bi	4541476	4764526	4952636	4940121	4502411	4420029	4167889	3673450	3206955	2749419	2317320	1984378	1784043	1541469	1280098	1063252	863199	691795	583543	508814	456877	383345	334983	306238	282880	273105
CO	1A4bi	786879	910845	837128	843549	844457	884559	865317	927365	928322	975692	899237	848300	523812	828230	537598	912383	1075598	1483194	1752960	1687578	1640109	1060818	1486693	1485135	1271069	1431266
CO	1A4cii	278720	240206	217350	188348	186981	171228	174348	137118	117729	110950	98966	88679	77099	45834	59467	58078	56308	52127	49724	49348	46249	44498	43153	41750	41870	40988

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
BC	5C2	869	836	897	861	1055	950	924	921	957	920	909	904	903	867	837	914

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pb	1A4bi	6987341	7675016	6947894	6723049	6402919	6747496	6582943	6961021	7176948	7677558	7048898	6820977	4609600	6528543	4508741	7057501	8029760	10611876	12412512	11919340	11418950	7452373	10473904	10435408	8909443	10010553
Pb	2C1	61089583	59545580	58809083	61292460	61646570	65659435	57418860	60934503	61760887	58269905	64081469	65485837	66508176	67460288	70966305	71035898	78351328	78781937	77189155	53359137	66514232	73439926	69879934	65421306	64953053	63654877
Cd	1A2f	5610351	6439154	6065305	5916225	5656560	5560450	5490589	5613784	4976925	4719613	4980059	4551318	3001755	3014276	3068879	3275521	3356701	3284033	3209620	2015561	2488808	2712413	2612138	2254752	2274934	2027545
Cd	1A4ai	381454	417233	407506	493755	523131	575248	633638	654468	713431	796357	967802	1174893	1178373	1387218	1878760	1971267	2001807	2767317	2778767	2744834	1978314	1540368	1809195	2000481	2100867	2148081
Cd	1A4bi	1008016	948116	845609	710362	587378	593874	563912	587096	695682	848264	766574	794676	668605	707685	544948	637725	580324	604161	673678	652076	572092	406563	502223	486770	407795	458155
Cd	2C1	1319814	1289281	1273341	1327104	1335657	1422607	1244060	1021298	1029372	978926	1065890	1077665	1083591	1105536	1165321	1178670	1287304	1290172	1258565	847935	1074186	1191207	1132042	1035323	1024601	983348
Hg	1A1a	981103	953730	960852	911118	936701	1017354	973351	932865	1010046	955969	976123	977281	1029957	1017845	970862	915710	917305	880177	815286	699360	656668	654888	667294	581998	535259	576265
Hg	1A4ai	339134	370525	371360	429464	447043	488770	532937	547825	590717	653088	786887	968778	951602	1147646	1614134	1703272	1725085	2485642	2496168	2426622	2142271	1700889	1962110	2152898	2251163	2305619
Hg	2B10a	2815887	2421451	2123100	1728466	1692096	1651873	1405997	1329203	1067639	990586	943264	821240	652600	429300	562200	483400	455200	337540	221600	137960	123493	159350	53380	40237	25830	37490
Hg	2C1	2299934	2229701	2202193	2295104	2304515	2454581	2146490	2277805	2324261	2172100	2417373	2501491	2569850	2589382	2717729	2687601	2998658	3026460	2980119	2119422	2595688	2852056	2717601	2610031	2600276	2604100
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	11633401	11278905	10809233	10243490	10097022	10412984	9817820	9988347	9534799	8824065	9236213	9393592	9209376	9118905	9817633	9938018	10197696	10813593	10429094	8445895	8726828	8628528	8377992	8176185	8175264	8209326
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	11633401	11278905	10809233	10243490	10097022	10412984	9817820	9988347	9534799	8824065	9236213	9393592	9209376	9118905	9817633	9938018	10197696	10813593	10429094	8445895	8726828	8628528	8377992	8176185	8175264	8209326

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
DIOX	1A4bi	69886	79767	73053	72924	71624	75523	73959	78755	79261	83405	76848	73172	46524	70659	47123	77783	90882	122813	143789	137311	131970	85100	120258	120044	102712	115563
DIOX	2C1	67203	65120	64319	67030	67293	71677	62680	66510	67921	63407	70659	73221	75318	75837	79577	78590	87799	88651	87342	62305	76161	83639	79707	76761	76504	76786
DIOX	5C2	6762	8293	7642	7674	7714	7506	7680	7435	7891	8070	7315	7038	7555	7249	8878	8000	7780	7756	8054	7740	7653	7610	7604	7300	7042	7696
HCB	1A1a	223600	208159	174532	154277	162456	174886	175283	170139	152134	173107	185964	222726	246861	312433	387074	391692	396639	398267	414541	468491	501224	594093	629789	692191	723398	702611
HCB	1A2f	4852512	4788480	4371957	4547593	4390491	4829126	4309307	4473198	4282962	4053658	3636070	3607594	3304913	3414028	3293406	3898929	3842970	4182226	4072051	2295345	3339154	3751902	3812654	3128142	3189833	2555809
HCB	1A4bi	747318	873299	804099	817010	827279	871466	858075	928076	827279	1002888	928462	875618	542511	876636	563689	980682	1169957	1621751	1917650	1839913	1781441	1141845	1642811	1641594	1405676	1583454
HCB	5C1biv	10361500	10605000	10853000	11099000	11345000	11590500	11836500	11512000	13607000	10575000	9053000	10790000	11307000	11262000	10791000	7799500	12988000	13028500	12002000	2947500	2991000	8178500	13366000	13002500	12539000	12462011
PCB	1A1b	7705354	5961704	5626536	6414854	5791829	8916230	8311934	8323087	8602953	6402006	7663569	7013329	7015658	6784823	6686666	6689244	6179531	6435164	7887502	8613134	7213408	7782841	7591697	3699240	2763999	1061295
PCB	1A4bi	9252666	10189964	9404909	9180762	9111677	9454885	9231960	10029482	9111677	11353934	10483675	10027238	6634791	9950838	6501818	10653672	12247621	16566149	19525209	18737150	17979410	11565414	16496125	16430340	14060364	15838139
PCB	2C1	91680941	90362239	89250718	93012379	93861306	99975982	87425946	92769214	92816179	89209285	95841220	95494302	94685137	97408800	102970800	105656400	113846400	113587200	110124000	71452800	92700000	103446000	98125200	86688000	85374000	79264800