Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: IT Submission year: 2016

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2014
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2014
PMs: 2000 - 2014

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
NOx	1A3bi	537917	573359	622566	628673	599219	590669	564011	522903	475302	436162	362812	336135	309809	288382	267345	240585	251020	228156	211862	194523	185344	174420	150617	151942	151154
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	2050783	2113138	2145912	2051014	1952132	1923519	1848520	1774140	1649956	1560017	1458776	1426009	1370987	1351167	1304777	1248580	1185088	1138163	1067837	993228	977987	949866	867139	815554	790352
NOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	2050783	2113138	2145912	2051014	1952132	1923519	1848520	1774140	1649956	1560017	1458776	1426009	1370987	1351167	1304777	1248580	1185088	1138163	1067837	993228	977987	949866	867139	815554	790352
NMVOC	11C	1122132	1121574	1132589	1156030	1161231	1157784	1171062	1188621	1207826	1205792	1223915	1229734	1235851	1254950	1262433	1271204	1281724	1320350	1310444	1325016	1331445	1347242	1368795	1358944	1373849
NMVOC	1A3bi	485623	520538	546218	551982	511607	504075	480077	429353	377896	328641	272950	240357	210479	176686	143322	118107	96094	73806	60791	51035	44874	37043	30511	28403	25373
NMVOC	1A4bi	99341	114520	104350	104551	104196	108683	105783	112028	112516	117406	107701	101500	64315	100675	66619	111166	129976	178151	211066	203276	195253	126710	179220	179473	155692
NMVOC	2D3d	270665	266038	262226	253509	253073	252492	243832	242888	228545	227902	226001	229563	226355	221648	218648	214130	215903	211963	200851	189777	156373	174425	163113	173068	155223
NMVOC	2D3g	77251	86680	98275	97150	99977	85984	85078	80562	79543	77734	82675	74444	70298	65483	64329	59724	62285	62008	58105	55246	54988	54508	52347	53278	53076
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	1989789	2060846	2107753	2108061	2060105	2019991	1961966	1906984	1801648	1728584	1563237	1492434	1395190	1383598	1267834	1281255	1248967	1221971	1193285	1114029	1046315	953998	941906	908781	849346
NMVOC	NTCOMPLIANCE	1989789	2060846	2107753	2108061	2060105	2019991	1961966	1906984	1801648	1728584	1563237	1492434	1395190	1383598	1267834	1281255	1248967	1221971	1193285	1114029	1046315	953998	941906	908781	849346
SOx	1A1b	192212	187100	193000	167079	159046	144212	143535	142700	113751	116129	86941	74668	82996	73652	72161	63036	53518	48259	45443	37959	40893	32271	27045	17811	9526
SOx	1B2aiv	67398	66262	60296	71728	58723	45820	45500	44100	49025	32090	25140	35955	36245	31097	28715	32179	26548	31743	25850	24252	24847	24958	19115	17995	18934
SOx	1B2c	12322	12391	12845	12323	11444	11019	11072	11775	11446	10210	9540	9276	8510	8587	9276	10274	8863	8862	8105	6154	6688	4391	4574	1696	2695
NH3	3B1a	98287	86793	79399	78159	73996	76270	76069	75775	76927	77042	74627	74861	68652	68537	65847	65978	65239	65863	65574	67283	62545	62861	66516	66699	65584
NH3	3B1b	84813	94695	91020	88782	87453	84714	82839	82619	80055	80909	80628	75988	74429	74348	71670	70368	66897	71007	69393	67944	65246	65655	64114	65451	63984
NH3	3B4gii	12365	12180	12242	12353	12883	12957	13007	13044	12964	12873	12174	13784	13496	13143	12506	12331	11270	12601	13404	13707	13795	14076	15033	15178	15178
NH3	3Da2c	2952	3002	3057	3118	3186	3262	3347	3440	3364	3554	4385	6073	5974	6414	6229	4761	6851	6305	6560	7532	8421	20089	9896	11635	14808
CO	1A3bi	4624963	4880647	4970420	4940101	4502460	4413333	4159178	3668492	3195574	2740162	2307037	2051484	1830355	1588251	1314275	1087904	881064	711212	598059	517041	463638	395174	330449	304406	278885
CO	1A4bi	786394	911831	838258	843803	845995	887051	867514	928593	929756	975168	896957	848934	528823	834126	547308	924249	1087437	1495774	1774058	1707345	1638179	1059060	1485926	1488026	1291498

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Pb	1A4bi	6716761	7398700	6706112	6515236	6258206	6610434	6452214	6800181	6839252	7166811	6574734	6281955	4142225	6189718	4231539	6773459	7885680	10572877	12449601	11928739	11344453	7386948	10437420	10435459	9053496
Pb	2C1	61089583	59545580	58809083	61292460	61646570	65659435	57418860	60934503	61760887	58269905	64081469	65485837	66508176	67460288	70966305	71035898	78351328	78781937	77189155	53359137	66514232	73439926	69879934	65421306	64438040
Cd	1A4ai	773995	740647	714816	727006	708176	745462	786961	828353	923838	1129521	1262363	1493797	1485316	1685276	2109107	2205142	2139655	2870728	2843829	2819749	2026707	1561504	1791119	1948000	2031809
Cd	1A4bi	866584	798055	712649	600215	503621	525231	501986	504261	486301	515614	464077	457240	351925	423506	332837	416689	443554	523867	597744	572162	533026	372899	485050	480722	414357
Cd	2C1	1319814	1289281	1273341	1327104	1335657	1422607	1244060	1021298	1029372	978926	1065890	1077665	1083591	1105536	1165321	1178670	1287304	1290172	1258565	847935	1074186	1191207	1132042	1035323	1019639
Hg	1A1a	981103	953730	960852	911118	936701	1017354	973351	932865	1010046	955969	976123	977281	1029957	1017845	970862	915710	917305	880177	815286	699360	656668	654888	667294	581998	535259
Hg	1A4ai	413183	430449	428815	472883	482578	520241	560835	580092	626199	713186	841560	1027524	1008703	1204537	1658680	1747781	1753316	2508967	2512576	2442660	2153208	1683134	1936893	2100025	2185830
Hg	2B10a	2815887	2421451	2123100	1728466	1692096	1651873	1405997	1329203	1067639	990586	943264	821240	652600	429300	562200	483400	455200	337540	221600	137960	123493	159350	53380	40237	25830
Hg	2C1	2299934	2229701	2202193	2295104	2304515	2454581	2146490	2277805	2324261	2172100	2417373	2501491	2569850	2589382	2717729	2687601	2998658	3026460	2980119	2119422	2595688	2852056	2717601	2610031	2571193

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
DIOX	1A4bi	69045	79000	72417	72320	71299	75168	73593	78303	78617	82528	75907	72169	46014	70816	47296	78050	91558	123822	145526	138869	131852	84994	120200	120290	104381
DIOX	2C1	67203	65120	64319	67030	67293	71677	62680	66510	67921	63407	70659	73221	75318	75837	79577	78590	87799	88651	87342	62305	76161	83639	79707	76761	75624
DIOX	5C2	6762	8293	7642	7674	7714	7506	7680	7435	7892	8068	7313	7040	7553	7249	8879	8001	7780	7756	8054	7740	7652	7611	7605	7300	6983
HCB	1A2f	4852512	4788480	4371957	4547593	4390491	4829126	4309307	4473198	4282962	4053658	3636070	3607234	3304913	3415108	3296106	3903789	3848550	4187626	4068451	2295345	3340234	3752622	3812654	3127782	3189653
HCB	1A4bi	750581	878052	808680	820467	831653	876961	863022	931898	831653	1004830	928345	879075	548038	882915	573987	993981	1183996	1636322	1940791	1861668	1779178	1139773	1641855	1644226	1427912
HCB	5C1biv	10361500	10605000	10853000	11099000	11345000	11590500	11836500	11512000	13607000	10575000	9053000	10790000	11307000	11262000	10791000	7799500	12988000	13028500	12002000	2947500	2991000	8178500	13366000	13002500	13609108
PCB	1A1b	7682516	5961704	5626536	6394300	5773047	8905369	8311934	8321260	8600709	6352677	7610767	6983311	6945335	6738556	6647698	6680094	6168112	6426342	7878706	8537971	7191875	7780507	7591330	3673099	2761979
PCB	1A4bi	8910066	9836210	9099469	8933113	8935616	9365559	9164506	9874190	8935616	10298714	9505034	9011442	5667488	8994704	5925631	10089277	11957109	16444827	19468136	18671593	17837330	11443278	16440937	16460956	14296819
PCB	2C1	91680941	90362239	89250718	93012379	93861306	99975982	87425946	92769214	92816179	89209285	95841220	95494302	94685137	97408800	102970800	105656400	113846400	113587200	110124000	71452800	92700000	103446000	98125200	86688000	85374000