Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: IT Submission year: 2015

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2013
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2013
PMs: 2000 - 2013

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
NOx	1A3bi	537917	573359	622566	628673	599219	590669	564011	522903	475302	436159	363368	336393	310013	288471	267334	240583	251021	228200	211945	195206	187225	178363	155612	158384
NOx	1A3bii	67117	61562	63974	71942	71693	70617	71835	74405	78680	78849	85746	78707	78194	82440	85577	91309	75422	78751	76385	73077	77715	78861	66417	55745
NOx	1A4bi	45825	50852	47554	47308	41960	45282	45207	43095	43590	45234	40469	40101	39327	40318	41874	41958	38314	35495	37087	37897	38600	35906	36174	43661
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	2047255	2109822	2142860	2047819	1948966	1920049	1844711	1770302	1645710	1556401	1455824	1423160	1370620	1347535	1305366	1244272	1179225	1128744	1055909	982328	968796	949784	863347	820574
NOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	2047255	2109822	2142860	2047819	1948966	1920049	1844711	1770302	1645710	1556401	1455824	1423160	1370620	1347535	1305366	1244272	1179225	1128744	1055909	982328	968796	949784	863347	820574
NMVOC	11C	1122064	1121554	1132558	1155950	1161199	1157769	1171048	1188578	1207776	1205765	1223875	1229708	1235837	1254919	1262419	1271190	1281712	1320270	1310422	1324961	1331409	1347207	1368677	1358933
NMVOC	1A3bi	485623	520538	546218	551982	511607	504075	480077	429353	377893	328638	273638	240607	210688	176827	143314	117839	96084	73641	60643	50970	45100	37393	31050	29272
NMVOC	1A4bi	45241	65018	60128	59645	60968	62703	56890	64120	61096	70430	63286	66365	59204	61660	74457	68292	69384	77690	81070	86183	87606	88256	99000	179408
NMVOC	2D3a	116553	115202	120318	124186	120639	119263	113513	116535	105742	107592	102093	101443	108133	117553	118551	127742	130852	125507	119500	105117	110250	101664	97339	80779
NMVOC	2D3d	270665	266038	262226	253509	253073	252492	243832	242888	228545	227902	226001	229563	226355	221648	218648	214130	215903	211963	200851	189777	156373	174425	163113	172268
NMVOC	2D3g	77251	86680	98275	97150	99977	85984	85078	80562	79543	77734	82675	74444	70298	65483	64329	59724	62285	62008	58105	55246	54988	54508	52347	52434
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	1935963	2011752	2063906	2063521	2017255	1974396	1913398	1859464	1750585	1682053	1523544	1461629	1394016	1348684	1280252	1242110	1192684	1127217	1069069	1003208	942238	919328	862229	905539
NMVOC	NTCOMPLIANCE	1935963	2011752	2063906	2063521	2017255	1974396	1913398	1859464	1750585	1682053	1523544	1461629	1394016	1348684	1280252	1242110	1192684	1127217	1069069	1003208	942238	919328	862229	905539
SOx	1A1b	192212	187100	193000	167079	159046	144212	143535	142700	113751	116129	86941	74668	82996	73652	72161	63036	53518	48259	45443	37959	40893	32271	27045	17811
SOx	1B2aiv	67398	66262	60296	71728	58723	45820	45500	44100	49025	32090	25140	35955	36245	31097	28715	32179	26548	31743	25850	24252	24847	24958	19115	17995
SOx	1B2c	12322	12391	12845	12323	11444	11019	11072	11775	11446	10210	9540	9276	8510	8587	9276	10274	8863	8862	8105	6154	6688	4391	4574	1696
NH3	3B1a	98287	86793	79399	78159	73996	76270	76069	75775	76927	77042	74627	74861	68652	68537	65847	65978	65239	65863	65574	67283	62545	62861	66516	66699
NH3	3B1b	84813	94695	91020	88782	87453	84714	82839	82619	80055	80909	80628	75988	74429	74348	71670	70368	66897	71007	69393	67944	65246	65655	64114	65451
NH3	3B4gii	12365	12180	12242	12353	12883	12957	13007	13044	12964	12873	12174	13784	13496	13143	12506	12331	11270	12601	13404	13707	13795	14076	15033	15178
NH3	3Da2c	2952	3002	3057	3118	3186	3262	3347	3440	3364	3554	4385	6073	5974	6414	6229	4761	6851	6305	6560	7532	8421	20089	9896	11635
CO	1A2f	305847	297684	295724	379254	376322	411021	370281	380929	364615	344895	312557	309315	285082	294601	287016	326246	322882	267277	282714	155008	233078	265253	191090	114866
CO	1A3bi	4624963	4880647	4970420	4940101	4502460	4413333	4159178	3668492	3195476	2740059	2314355	2054299	1832497	1589557	1313976	1080130	880654	706163	593331	512935	463900	392474	329998	305381
CO	1A4bi	360437	519891	486219	484280	497916	514595	469032	535751	505487	584967	527335	555869	486606	507265	613958	562668	575080	646605	674289	716961	728215	734960	816311	1488698

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
PM2.5	1A4bi	39521	41551	36030	37335	45115	41030	41936	47347	49363	52498	53243	53874	61279	112552
PM2.5	NATIONALTOTAL	163142	161153	148441	145928	151076	140074	135556	136091	132853	127435	126024	123181	121080	168438
PM2.5	NTCOMPLIANCE	163142	161153	148441	145928	151076	140074	135556	136091	132853	127435	126024	123181	121080	168438
PM10	1A4bi	39916	41973	36398	37720	45583	41462	42383	47854	49896	53071	53830	54474	61967	113820
PM10	NATIONALTOTAL	196299	195344	182587	178970	183896	171147	166015	166010	162074	154279	153051	150177	147121	193718
PM10	NTCOMPLIANCE	196299	195344	182587	178970	183896	171147	166015	166010	162074	154279	153051	150177	147121	193718
TSP	1A4bi	46959	49380	42821	44377	53627	48779	49862	56299	58701	62436	63329	64087	72903	133906
TSP	NATIONALTOTAL	238091	238326	224024	220704	226397	212149	206953	207602	203119	193106	192125	189397	185575	240175
TSP	NTCOMPLIANCE	238091	238326	224024	220704	226397	212149	206953	207602	203119	193106	192125	189397	185575	240175
BC	1A4bi	3203	3386	2968	3094	3767	3447	3547	4005	4174	4438	4500	4552	5177	9512
BC	5C2	869	836	897	861	1055	951	924	921	957	920	909	904	903	864

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Pb	1A4bi	3877373	4785518	4359429	4118539	3938036	4127525	3795397	4181239	4011079	4564721	4103293	4316046	3863248	3983476	4691172	4309801	4381957	4781723	4956276	5197550	5178517	5204991	5824171	10452609
Pb	2C1	61089583	59545580	58809083	61292460	61646570	65659435	57418860	60934503	61760887	58269905	64081469	65485837	66508176	67460288	70966305	71035898	78351328	78781937	77189155	53359137	66514232	73439926	69879934	65421306
Cd	1A4ai	774710	741704	715785	727965	709158	746467	787860	829385	924822	1130667	1264567	1496171	1487425	1686954	2110338	2205848	2140610	2872475	2845718	2821190	2027861	1562651	1791746	1915058
Cd	1A4bi	745910	687759	614296	500488	407785	423441	393901	398551	373059	412279	366258	379690	340958	337067	350783	320830	307704	297944	303622	306334	288030	285672	299503	481411
Cd	1B1b	317800	302857	270647	246450	264647	259250	248100	260950	259600	249500	225200	241450	203250	191350	203100	228700	234400	236350	224250	137750	205500	239400	209200	132550
Cd	2C1	1319814	1289281	1273341	1327104	1335657	1422607	1244060	1021298	1029372	978926	1065890	1077665	1083591	1105536	1165321	1178670	1287304	1290172	1258565	847935	1074186	1191207	1132042	1035323
Hg	1A1a	981103	953730	960852	911118	936701	1017354	973351	932865	1010046	955969	976123	977281	1029957	1017845	970862	915710	917305	880177	815286	699360	656668	654888	667294	581998
Hg	1A4ai	413742	430399	429340	473270	483244	520651	560738	580361	626805	714395	845523	1032263	1017175	1212243	1667991	1750199	1757630	2519938	2515375	2447610	2164021	1699036	1952278	2083110
Hg	1A4bi	197162	204258	195497	185234	171748	183371	183358	186487	169235	185719	172134	178754	166401	183678	198239	205746	188916	176906	185401	194305	204628	191502	198072	248510
Hg	2B10a	2815887	2421451	2123100	1728466	1692096	1651873	1405997	1329203	1067639	990586	943264	821240	652600	429300	562200	483400	455200	337540	221600	137960	123493	159350	53380	41170
Hg	2C1	2299934	2229701	2202193	2295104	2304515	2454581	2146490	2277805	2324261	2172100	2417373	2501491	2569850	2589382	2717729	2687601	2998658	3026460	2980119	2119422	2595688	2852056	2717601	2610031

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
DIOX	1A4bi	35113	47721	44283	43539	43389	45250	41525	46637	44361	50954	45974	48402	42647	44243	52822	48488	49597	54811	56679	59463	59487	59519	66618	120489
DIOX	2C1	67203	65120	64319	67030	67293	71677	62680	66510	67921	63407	70659	73221	75318	75837	79577	78590	87799	88651	87342	62305	76161	83639	79707	76761
DIOX	5C2	6762	8293	7642	7674	7714	7506	7680	7435	7892	8068	7313	7040	7553	7249	8879	8001	7780	7756	8054	7740	7652	7611	7605	7269
HCB	1A2f	4852512	4788480	4371957	4547593	4390491	4829126	4309307	4473198	4282962	4053658	3636070	3607234	3304913	3415108	3296106	3903789	3848550	4187626	4068451	2295345	3340234	3752622	3812654	3127782
HCB	1A4bi	324673	483323	451702	453285	473646	491076	447105	518906	473646	588392	531955	563077	503097	526731	648356	594485	614594	695371	723519	768427	777948	785538	893062	1647010
HCB	5C1biv	10361500	10605000	10853000	11099000	11345000	11590500	11836500	11512000	13607000	10575000	9053000	10790000	11307000	11262000	10791000	7799500	12988000	13028500	12002000	2947500	2991000	8178500	13366000	13384099
PCB	1A1b	7682516	5961704	5626536	6394300	5773047	8905369	8311934	8321260	8600709	6352677	7610767	6983311	6945335	6738556	6647698	6680094	6168112	6426342	7878706	8537971	7191875	7780507	7591330	3878129
PCB	1A4bi	4650984	5888924	5529681	5261286	5355545	5506709	5005336	5744271	5355545	6134338	5541128	5851463	5218082	5432858	6669314	6094322	6263084	7035326	7295417	7739183	7825029	7900929	8953004	16488794
PCB	2C1	91680941	90362239	89250718	93012379	93861306	99975982	87425946	92769214	92816179	89209285	95841220	95494302	94685137	97408800	102970800	105656400	113846400	113587200	110124000	71452800	92700000	103446000	98125200	86688000