Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: IT Submission year: 2014

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2012
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2012
PMs: 2000 - 2012

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
NOx	1A3bi	537904	573307	622492	628630	599230	590676	563983	522871	476886	438268	367174	338304	310683	288799	268076	255751	253711	229418	213049	196950	191046	190969	168440
NOx	1A3bii	67125	61562	63974	71942	71693	70617	71835	74405	78680	78849	80235	78692	78194	82440	85577	81131	75422	78871	76562	73075	77715	69056	61149
NOx	GRIDTOTAL	2024633	2085019	2117118	2020629	1923391	1896055	1821608	1744621	1623544	1534001	1424214	1400413	1346212	1322069	1280048	1213985	1156958	1106535	1036305	964977	945936	922116	843904
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	2024633	2085019	2117118	2020629	1923391	1896055	1821608	1744621	1623544	1534001	1424214	1400413	1346212	1322069	1280048	1213985	1156958	1106535	1036305	964977	945936	922116	843904
NOx	NECDTOTAL	2024633	2085019	2117118	2020629	1923391	1896055	1821608	1744621	1623544	1534001	1424214	1400413	1346212	1322069	1280048	1213985	1156958	1106535	1036305	964977	945936	922116	843904
NOx	SNAPTOTAL	2024633	2085019	2117118	2020629	1923391	1896055	1821608	1744621	1623544	1534001	1424214	1400413	1346212	1322069	1280048	1213985	1156958	1106535	1036305	964977	945936	922116	843904
NOx	UNFCCCTOTAL	2067548	2111727	2143475	2063217	1957216	1910327	1838902	1770692	1660507	1553933	1453176	1421194	1360325	1346428	1298612	1229229	1170996	1157313	1057952	990323	964851	946805	881522
NMVOC	1A3dii	95877	97168	96521	97366	99798	109847	112807	110424	109370	106092	104013	102325	98326	96936	90921	89023	85730	82105	74917	68719	62943	53822	36004
NMVOC	1B2b	24562	27420	28412	25887	22118	26191	27921	27712	29291	29383	29579	25792	29162	29932	29506	30161	28058	25296	27007	27898	29459	24492	27105
NMVOC	3A1	153577	154979	154164	150015	149489	147473	144769	145205	136394	137620	136555	145194	144896	144821	147295	145636	148768	148806	144764	137427	108606	125799	114106
NMVOC	3C	77251	86680	98275	97150	99977	85984	85078	80562	79543	77734	82675	74444	70298	65483	64329	60453	63856	64347	61062	59247	60170	60030	58558
NMVOC	GRIDTOTAL	1923694	1994789	2048623	2048374	2002475	1958672	1898714	1843611	1738816	1668057	1513545	1453217	1379889	1333298	1263906	1204359	1164158	1111036	1053445	980580	935967	916339	855185
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	1923694	1994789	2048623	2048374	2002475	1958672	1898714	1843611	1738816	1668057	1513545	1453217	1379889	1333298	1263906	1204359	1164158	1111036	1053445	980580	935967	916339	855185
NMVOC	NECDTOTAL	1923694	1994789	2048623	2048374	2002475	1958672	1898714	1843611	1738816	1668057	1513545	1453217	1379889	1333298	1263906	1204359	1164158	1111036	1053445	980580	935967	916339	855185
NMVOC	SNAPTOTAL	1923694	1994789	2048623	2048374	2002475	1958672	1898714	1843611	1738816	1668057	1513545	1453217	1379889	1333298	1263906	1204359	1164158	1111036	1053445	980580	935967	916339	855185
NMVOC	UNFCCCTOTAL	1997848	2025724	2084997	2125236	2044813	1975478	1916723	1887057	1794378	1695851	1554947	1480087	1394474	1365551	1281998	1219980	1176479	1190784	1073817	1005646	950828	939806	906674
SOx	1B2aiv	67398	66262	60296	71728	58723	45820	45500	44100	49025	32090	25140	35955	36245	31097	28715	32179	26548	31743	25850	24252	24847	24958	19115
NH3	4B1a	138752	122156	111409	109330	103182	106016	105399	104651	105894	105700	102041	102014	93230	92749	89109	89287	88287	89131	88740	91053	84641	85069	90014
NH3	4B1b	119436	132944	127390	123870	121631	117445	114476	113800	109907	110710	109955	103275	100810	100351	96736	94979	90293	95841	93662	91706	88065	88617	86538
NH3	4B9b	15371	15113	15163	15272	15900	15962	15994	16010	15883	15743	14861	16794	16413	15954	15181	14945	13659	15273	16245	16613	16719	17060	18220
CO	1A2fi	305844	297680	295719	379214	376281	410981	370227	380875	364559	344834	312490	309247	285002	294515	286926	326151	322755	267143	282582	154944	233026	265130	190977
CO	1A3bi	4624939	4880258	4970255	4940004	4502528	4413358	4158902	3668350	3229285	2753204	2301317	2073672	1843729	1589913	1315204	1095824	898765	706915	594999	522523	465387	394718	351144
CO	1A3dii	178194	180888	179537	180842	185103	203171	209094	204976	208814	209094	209626	209839	205086	206461	197448	197996	198438	198888	190193	181009	173048	153677	105995
CO	GRIDTOTAL	6969928	7357117	7390221	7480553	7072482	6970171	6650911	6201502	5730022	5280989	4657168	4398954	4005772	3777680	3588822	3156328	2891530	2672625	2553225	2262094	2326389	2267064	2112611
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	6969928	7357117	7390221	7480553	7072482	6970171	6650911	6201502	5730022	5280989	4657168	4398954	4005772	3777680	3588822	3156328	2891530	2672625	2553225	2262094	2326389	2267064	2112611
CO	NECDTOTAL	6969928	7357117	7390221	7480553	7072482	6970171	6650911	6201502	5730022	5280989	4657168	4398954	4005772	3777680	3588822	3156328	2891530	2672625	2553225	2262094	2326389	2267064	2112611
CO	SNAPTOTAL	6969928	7357117	7390221	7480553	7072482	6970171	6650911	6201502	5730022	5280989	4657168	4398954	4005772	3777680	3588822	3156328	2891530	2672625	2553225	2262094	2326389	2267064	2112611

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
PM2.5	2C1	4757	4630	4572	4785	5095	5293	5693	5667	5442	3465	4548	5092	4870
PM10	2C1	5946	5788	5715	5981	6368	6616	7116	7084	6802	4332	5685	6365	6088
TSP	2C1	7432	7234	7143	7476	7961	8271	8895	8855	8502	5415	7106	7956	7609

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Pb	1A3bvi	10553245	10802162	11421323	11728805	11629343	11892155	11963784	12130613	12271484	12451737	12123700	12404912	12756670	12662569	12631512	12469954	12608539	12635444	12343163	12047854	12006276	12051453	10894881
Pb	2C1	61089583	59545580	58809083	61292460	61646570	65659435	57418860	60934503	61760887	58269905	64081469	65485837	66508176	67460288	70966305	71035898	78351328	78781937	77189155	53359137	66514232	73439926	69879934
Cd	1A3bi	182362	188952	199772	206922	209667	214638	216106	216203	226649	227594	225597	226561	231551	230560	231056	231801	238341	230777	220256	214537	211270	211425	187067
Cd	1A4ai	774621	741543	715654	727827	709033	746334	787748	829254	924705	1130527	1264464	1496060	1487320	1686849	2110264	2205782	2140547	2872413	2845650	2821118	2024250	1847983	1725352
Cd	1B1b	317800	302857	270647	246450	264647	259250	248100	260950	259600	249500	225200	241450	203250	191350	203100	228700	234400	236350	224250	137750	205500	239400	209200
Cd	2C1	1319814	1289281	1273341	1327104	1335657	1422607	1244060	1021298	1029372	978926	1065890	1077665	1083591	1105536	1165321	1178670	1287304	1290172	1258565	847935	1074186	1191207	1132042
Hg	1A1a	981103	953730	960852	911118	936701	1017354	973351	932865	1010046	955969	976123	977281	1029957	1017845	970862	915710	917305	880177	815286	699360	656668	654888	667294
Hg	1A4ai	413721	430361	429308	473237	483213	520617	560709	580327	626773	714358	845495	1032233	1017146	1212214	1667970	1750181	1757612	2519921	2515358	2447593	2160424	1985464	1892905
Hg	2B5a	2815887	2421451	2123100	1728466	1692096	1651873	1405997	1329203	1067639	990586	943264	821240	652600	429300	562200	483400	455200	337540	221600	137960	123493	159350	53380
Hg	2C1	2299934	2229701	2202193	2295104	2304515	2454581	2146490	2277805	2324261	2172100	2417373	2501491	2569850	2589382	2717729	2687601	2998658	3026460	2980119	2119422	2595688	2852056	2717601

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
DIOX	2C1	67203	65120	64319	67030	67293	71677	62680	66510	67921	63407	70659	73221	75318	75837	79577	78590	87799	88651	87342	62305	76161	83639	79707
DIOX	6Ce	7086	8603	7962	8001	8056	7837	8022	7797	8290	8426	7626	7360	7900	7613	9262	8364	8145	8144	8382	8098	8026	7993	7991
HCB	1A2fi	4852512	4788480	4371957	4547593	4390491	4829126	4309307	4473198	4282962	4053658	3636070	3607234	3304913	3415108	3296106	3903789	3848550	4187626	4068451	2295345	3340234	3752621	3812654