Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

RecalculationsKCA for CLRTAPKCA for NECDInv. comparisonTime seriesTrend graphsAdd Comments

TIME SERIES

Party: IT      Submission year: 2013

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2011
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2011
PMs: 2000 - 2011

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key

 

Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011
NOx1A3bi538175573598622787628900602140590929564244523128477076438478367395338518310889288942268200254043245133220952203530183935190002192599
NOxGRIDTOTAL2021975208531021174132020899192630118963081821869174487816237341534211142443414006281346417132221212801721213101115822411171621051292981640949620929851
NOxNATIONALTOTAL2021975208531021174132020899192630118963081821869174487816237341534211142443414006281346417132221212801721213101115822411171621051292981640949620929851
NOxNECDTOTAL2021975208531021174132020899192630118963081821869174487816237341534211142443414006281346417132221212801721213101115822411171621051292981640949620929851
NOxSNAPTOTAL2021975208531021174132020899192630118963081821869174487816237341534211142443414006281346417132221212801721213101115822411171621051292981640949620929851
NOxUNFCCCTOTAL2052231210814021380532048575195409319078841836557176288316513221549080144592614165121357931134091512960651225594117016011530431066641999583962795943408
NMVOC3A1153577154979154164150015149489147473144769145205136394137620136555145194144896144821147295145636148768148806144764137427108606125799
NMVOC3C77251866809827597150999778598485078805627954377734826757444470298654836432960453638566434761062592475994459909
NMVOCGRIDTOTAL192536019941102047962204785520052451958341189841618435251738986166862715143471453862137984713334301263152125278912250731173875111494410574721002835989174
NMVOCNATIONALTOTAL192536019941102047962204785520052451958341189841618435251738986166862715143471453862137984713334301263152125278912250731173875111494410574721002835989174
NMVOCNECDTOTAL192536019941102047962204785520052451958341189841618435251738986166862715143471453862137984713334301263152125278912250731173875111494410574721002835989174
NMVOCSNAPTOTAL192536019941102047962204785520052451958341189841618435251738986166862715143471453862137984713334301263152125278912250731173875111494410574721002835989174
NMVOCUNFCCCTOTAL195501520115852064921207676620283861965918190795018592931762883167861715310321464716138540313467421272850125952112307541209106112471410701541010159997791
SOx1B2aiv67398662626029671728587234582045500441004902532090251403595536245310972871532179265483174325850242522484724958
SOx1B2c123221239112845123231144411019110721177511446102109540927685108587927610274886388628105615466884391
NH34B1a13875212215611140910933010318210601610539910465110589410570010204110201493230927498910989287882878913188740910538464185069
NH34B1b1194361329441273901238701216311174451144761138001099071107101099551032751008101003519673694979902939584193662917068806588617
NH34B9b15371151131516315272159001596215994160101588315743148611679416413159541518114945136591527316245166131671917060
CO1A2fi305844297680295719379214376281410981370227380875364559344834312490309247285002294515286926326151322755267143282582154944233026265130
CO1A3dii178194180888179537180842185103203171209094204976208814209094209626209839205086206461197448197996198438198888190193181009173046153739
COGRIDTOTAL6970537735730973903997480563709166169699836650613620136957292155280362465667143984414005310377874635893403270119303889328383922721187247676125164222464365
CONATIONALTOTAL6970537735730973903997480563709166169699836650613620136957292155280362465667143984414005310377874635893403270119303889328383922721187247676125164222464365
CONECDTOTAL6970537735730973903997480563709166169699836650613620136957292155280362465667143984414005310377874635893403270119303889328383922721187247676125164222464365
COSNAPTOTAL6970537735730973903997480563709166169699836650613620136957292155280362465667143984414005310377874635893403270119303889328383922721187247676125164222464365

HM (Unit = g)
1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011
Pb2C161089583595455805880908361292460616465706565943557418860609345036176088758269905640814696548583766508176674602887096630571035898783513287878193777189155533591376651423273439926
Cd1A4ai7746217415437156547278277090337463347877488292549247051130527126446214960571487315168684221102582205775214053928724032845640282110719908762103368
Cd1B1b317800302857270647246450264647259250248100260950259600249500225200241450203250191350203100228700234400236350224250137750205500239400
Cd2C113198141289281127334113271041335657142260712440601021298102937297892610658901077665108359111055361165321117867012873041290172125856584793510741861191207
Hg1A1a9811039537309608529111189367011017354973351932865101004695596997612397728110299571017845970862915710917305880177815286699360656668654888
Hg1A4ai41372143036142930847323748321352061756070958032762677371435884549510322331017146121221416679701750181175761225199212515358244759321263422237093
Hg2B5a281588724214512123100172846616920961651873140599713292031067639990586943264821240652600429300562200483400455200337540221600137960123493159350
Hg2C12299934222970122021932295104230451524545812146490227780523242612172100241737325014912569850258938227177292687601299865830264602980119211942225956882852056

POP (Unit = mg)
1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011
DIOX2C167203651206431967030672937167762680665106792163407706597322175318758377957778590877998865187342623057616183639
HCB1A2fi4852512478848043719574547593439049148291264309307447319842829624053658363607036072343304913341510832961063903789384855041876264068451229534533402343784690