Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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TIME SERIES

Party: IS      Submission year: 2022

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2020
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2020
PMs: 2000 - 2020

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
NOx	1A2e	850	450	955	1070	974	1006	1331	1380	1044	1057	754	967	1100	641	93	111	265	451	544	484	370	381	446	337	135	297	297	139	177	105	107
NOx	1A3di(i)	687	344	497	725	814	83	471	924	1260	960	1319	1452	2095	470	513	39	398	277	1075	181	6	1153	530	1825	1683	3549	4371	4955	5669	4883	1906
NMVOC	1A3ai(i)	140	141	129	124	136	150	172	186	215	231	259	222	197	212	241	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	25	33	28	24	13
NMVOC	1A3ai(ii)	1183	1195	1096	1054	1150	1272	1462	1573	1821	1957	2195	1880	1668	1793	2046	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	2	3	83	99	62	49	23
NMVOC	1A3di(i)	24	12	17	25	27	3	17	31	43	34	45	51	74	16	18	1	12	8	29	4	0	34	13	55	54	116	137	150	175	159	68
NMVOC	NTCOMPL(NECD)	10026	10013	10057	9916	9810	9626	9563	9447	9439	9118	8846	8264	8024	7759	7853	5485	7232	7089	6691	6217	5726	5554	5412	5350	5405	5665	5905	5659	5756	5524	3511
SOx	1A2e	1477	781	1658	1858	1692	1747	2268	2397	1814	1836	1309	1680	1911	1114	162	193	461	458	458	532	368	595	586	362	14	319	193	77	132	39	48
NH3	3Da1	154	151	135	141	146	139	150	144	145	157	157	153	137	128	123	121	153	172	190	151	135	130	150	144	177	144	134	162	145	128	141
CO	1A3ai(i)	8813	8907	8170	7850	8571	9475	10893	11720	13566	14579	16359	14007	12431	13360	15246	115	91	98	88	68	74	86	89	99	120	140	201	251	255	217	100
CO	1A3aii(i)	5467	5240	4429	4300	4001	4919	5579	5226	5495	5260	4629	4070	3560	3606	3823	24	18	23	23	18	17	15	18	16	15	15	16	16	16	14	13
CO	1A3aii(ii)	7253	6952	5875	5704	5308	6525	7401	6933	7290	6978	6141	5399	4723	4783	5071	4138	10	11	11	9	9	8	9	8	8	8	13	15	14	13	13
CO	1A3bii	1924	1898	1944	1936	1983	2020	1916	1907	1926	1890	1810	1739	1671	1595	1592	1531	1864	1745	1619	1390	1200	1053	912	840	709	744	551	1496	1376	1094	862
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	71725	70684	69010	65917	65089	64603	63633	64465	71451	75947	75086	71681	70250	69658	71650	51422	56784	71009	108374	111019	109455	106951	107639	109430	108366	110904	109025	113286	112402	106179	104708
CO	NTCOMPL(NECD)	71725	70684	69010	65917	65089	64603	63633	64465	71451	75947	75086	71681	70250	69658	71650	51422	56784	71009	108374	111019	109455	106951	107639	109430	108366	110904	109025	113286	112402	106179	104708
CO	NTCOMPLIANCE	71725	70684	69010	65917	65089	64603	63633	64465	71451	75947	75086	71681	70250	69658	71650	51422	56784	71009	108374	111019	109455	106951	107639	109430	108366	110904	109025	113286	112402	106179	104708

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
PM2.5	1A1a	56	56	56	56	57	55	99	110	95	74	75	59	52	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
PM2.5	1A2f	42	52	40	33	55	58	67	69	60	29	10	22	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
PM2.5	1A3di(i)	31	31	43	12	11	2	20	14	68	13	0	57	37	85	61	116	174	222	236	164	34
PM2.5	1A3dii	8	20	17	17	30	13	46	82	40	28	25	9	7	12	17	13	13	14	39	42	11
PM2.5	2G	32	37	32	38	41	44	64	68	37	32	35	38	42	33	34	39	38	38	46	30	32
PM2.5	5C2	67	60	56	49	28	10	9	9	8	8	8	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
PM10	1A1a	83	83	83	83	85	82	148	164	141	110	111	87	77	13	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
PM10	1A3di(i)	33	33	45	12	11	2	20	14	68	13	0	58	37	86	62	119	177	225	240	168	36
PM10	2G	50	60	48	63	68	74	113	120	60	52	58	64	72	52	59	68	67	67	82	53	56
TSP	1A3di(i)	33	33	45	12	11	2	20	14	68	13	0	58	37	86	62	119	177	225	240	168	36
BC	1A2e	16	21	24	14	2	2	6	10	12	11	8	8	10	7	3	6	6	3	4	2	2
BC	1A2gviii	4	4	4	14	18	13	10	5	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	1
BC	1A3ai(ii)						3	4	4	3	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	7	9	11	8	3
BC	1A3di(i)	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	1	2	1	3	4	5	5	4	1
BC	2C2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	3
BC	5C2	28	25	24	21	12	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Pb	1A1a	778	871	814	380345	380337	484358	629741	629440	629421	629387	629409	629387	629432	629332	643683	618840	1119290	1245972	1072205	835475	843191	663120	586103	96183	284	233	131	132	132	276	98
Pb	1A2f	64292	58418	40657	46641	45305	29907	22515	36907	47167	44270	45859	60242	45161	40963	66607	69688	83002	85477	74465	35202	12605	27126	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Pb	1A4ai	620	585	585	47351	47351	47351	47351	47351	47351	60871	60871	60802	60802	88813	78379	60664	60423	72903	42015	30952	36360	19343	19031	103	103	103	52	52	52	224	182
Pb	2G	89653	71363	121465	112037	105156	111035	139853	165790	213576	428899	296472	377740	261030	409473	443039	500393	805456	852783	387287	330612	384690	432125	492593	311878	400935	471914	472071	476177	595539	368027	387370
Pb	5E	55681	55685	55691	56138	55935	56177	56528	57009	58881	59127	50755	50891	51593	50013	35256	62192	49395	61269	87872	56459	40550	42788	51565	39081	45908	46595	77709	63061	46903	45250	35523
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	394071	367091	398253	827918	819674	937087	1098909	1161207	1220406	1457408	1322905	1428662	1292311	1458676	1524407	1568654	2373131	2582334	1914991	1500021	1503861	1358764	1322019	618169	658773	717706	772196	754301	844352	601241	575218
Pb	NTCOMPL(NECD)	394071	367091	398253	827918	819674	937087	1098909	1161207	1220406	1457408	1322905	1428662	1292311	1458676	1524407	1568654	2373131	2582334	1914991	1500021	1503861	1358764	1322019	618169	658773	717706	772196	754301	844352	601241	575218
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	394071	367091	398253	827918	819674	937087	1098909	1161207	1220406	1457408	1322905	1428662	1292311	1458676	1524407	1568654	2373131	2582334	1914991	1500021	1503861	1358764	1322019	618169	658773	717706	772196	754301	844352	601241	575218
Cd	1A1a	221	247	230	12618	12616	16023	20728	20641	20635	20629	20638	20630	20645	20618	21055	20248	36668	40797	35131	27357	27619	21715	19211	3202	92	76	43	44	44	92	33
Cd	1A2f	864	785	546	627	609	403	304	497	635	596	617	810	607	550	895	937	1115	1148	1000	473	169	364	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cd	1A3di(i)	90	44	70	103	131	11	61	145	184	129	190	199	282	69	70	10	87	61	275	51	2	249	146	380	301	601	828	1008	1103	839	243
Cd	1A4ai	12	11	11	1540	1540	1540	1540	1540	1540	1982	1982	1981	1981	2898	2557	1978	1974	2382	1372	1010	1187	631	621	2	2	2	1	1	1	4	3
Cd	2C2	46	37	40	49	48	52	53	52	46	53	77	82	51	70	80	69	164	71	120	72	58	43	135	134	122	125	68	56	860	2091	1209
Cd	5E	125	125	125	126	125	126	127	128	132	132	115	115	116	115	88	144	117	140	197	130	96	98	120	90	110	104	171	142	108	107	86
Hg	1A1a	117	129	120	10321	10320	13126	17037	16987	16982	16991	17004	16995	17008	16979	17336	16664	30208	33606	28945	22535	22756	17890	15831	2648	86	71	43	42	44	92	33
Hg	1A2f	3793	3447	2403	2754	2679	1787	1354	2198	2806	2640	2732	3572	2681	2418	3932	4118	4894	5040	4391	2076	744	1600	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1
Hg	1A3di(i)	261	131	186	271	295	32	179	337	468	363	491	547	792	174	193	12	131	91	332	53	2	382	157	613	594	1272	1515	1678	1948	1742	728
Hg	1A4ai	11	12	11	1272	1272	1271	1269	1269	1269	1633	1633	1632	1632	2387	2107	1631	1628	1964	1130	832	978	521	513	4	3	3	3	3	3	6	4
Hg	5C2	125875	124866	121500	103455	95356	84105	75355	72628	61542	50329	47309	43192	40073	34072	16005	196	198	205	166	164	166	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	138721	136835	133358	127792	119424	110666	105860	103824	93189	82368	79117	75217	72320	66748	53020	35191	49803	54305	45606	36515	35234	30685	25992	12472	13188	13335	13976	13630	13846	15001	14765
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	138721	136835	133358	127792	119424	110666	105860	103824	93189	82368	79117	75217	72320	66748	53020	35191	49803	54305	45606	36515	35234	30685	25992	12472	13188	13335	13976	13630	13846	15001	14765
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	138721	136835	133358	127792	119424	110666	105860	103824	93189	82368	79117	75217	72320	66748	53020	35191	49803	54305	45606	36515	35234	30685	25992	12472	13188	13335	13976	13630	13846	15001	14765

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
DIOX	1A1a	0	0	0	365	365	375	389	389	389	389	389	389	389	389	359	379	482	518	407	270	294	340	288	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
DIOX	5E	85	85	85	85	85	85	85	85	85	85	85	85	85	102	180	139	126	112	133	118	108	81	117	85	138	69	86	97	96	114	104
HCB	1A3di(i)	718	350	551	804	999	84	485	1114	1429	1021	1483	1567	2231	536	552	71	634	442	1951	361	11	1812	1029	2775	2256	4539	6139	7393	8147	6322	1942
HCB	2C3															11786	11256	11537	11392	12361	15242	10182	4866	6233	14605	12100	11000	10500	14585	15620	10815	10980
PCB	1A2f	81562	74110	51575	59167	57470	37921	28540	46803	59816	56136	58154	76409	57277	51965	84497	88402	105300	108440	94470	44658	15991	34413
PCB	1A3di(i)	468	166	578	848	1698	40	265	1776	1730	797	1709	1369	1748	670	475	254	1953	1367	7117	1447	46	5466	4025	7936	4986	8827	15104	20466	21012	12735	922