Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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TIME SERIES

Party: IS      Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NOx	1A2e	850	450	955	1070	974	1006	1331	1380	1044	1057	754	967	1100	641	93	111	265	451	544	484	370	381	446	337	135	297	297	139	177	105
NOx	1A3di(i)	465	177	281	457	438	83	472	949	1281	966	1339	1465	2109	478	517	44	431	300	1201	207	6	1247	602	1959	1763	3685	4618	5298	6017	5080
NMVOC	1A3ai(i)	140	141	129	124	136	150	172	186	215	231	259	222	197	212	241	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	25	33	28	24
NMVOC	1A3ai(ii)	1183	1195	1096	1054	1150	1272	1462	1573	1821	1957	2195	1880	1668	1793	2046	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	2	3	83	99	62	49
NMVOC	1A3di(i)	17	6	10	16	16	3	17	34	45	34	48	52	75	17	18	2	15	10	41	7	0	43	21	68	62	130	162	185	210	179
NMVOC	2H2	325	312	309	310	317	307	323	330	326	318	331	340	347	353	370	370	374	373	381	363	375	382	405	429	400	378	386	402	400	409
NMVOC	NTCOMPL(NECD)	10066	10059	10108	9962	9860	9659	9602	9479	9463	9106	8848	8272	8022	7759	7876	5531	7284	7261	6763	6263	5794	5617	5475	5356	5433	5582	5754	5535	5509	5267
SOx	1A2e	1477	781	1658	1858	1692	1747	2268	2397	1814	1836	1309	1680	1911	1114	162	193	461	458	458	532	368	595	586	362	14	319	193	77	132	46
NH3	3Da1	154	151	135	141	146	139	150	144	145	157	157	153	137	128	123	121	153	172	190	151	135	130	150	144	177	144	134	162	145	128
CO	1A3ai(i)	8813	8907	8170	7850	8571	9475	10893	11720	13566	14579	16359	14007	12431	13360	15246	115	91	98	88	68	74	86	89	99	120	140	201	251	255	217
CO	1A3aii(i)	5467	5240	4429	4300	4001	4919	5579	5226	5495	5260	4629	4070	3560	3606	3823	24	18	23	23	18	17	15	18	16	15	15	16	16	16	14
CO	1A3aii(ii)	7253	6952	5875	5704	5308	6525	7401	6933	7290	6978	6141	5399	4723	4783	5071	4138	10	11	11	9	9	8	9	8	8	8	13	15	14	13
CO	1A3bii	1924	1898	1944	1936	1983	2020	1916	1907	1926	1890	1810	1739	1671	1595	1592	1531	1864	1745	1619	1390	1200	1053	912	840	703	744	551	1496	1376	1097
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	71894	70912	69253	66156	65328	64834	63828	64621	71602	75998	75171	71777	70313	69715	71723	51555	56965	71335	108622	111296	109734	107191	107862	109669	108687	111126	109150	113439	112574	106386
CO	NTCOMPL(NECD)	71894	70912	69253	66156	65328	64834	63828	64621	71602	75998	75171	71777	70313	69715	71723	51555	56965	71335	108622	111296	109734	107191	107862	109669	108687	111126	109150	113439	112574	106386
CO	NTCOMPLIANCE	71894	70912	69253	66156	65328	64834	63828	64621	71602	75998	75171	71777	70313	69715	71723	51555	56965	71335	108622	111296	109734	107191	107862	109669	108687	111126	109150	113439	112574	106386

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
PM2.5	1A1a	56	56	56	56	57	55	99	110	95	74	75	59	52	9	0	0	0	0	0	0
PM2.5	1A2f	42	52	40	33	55	58	67	69	60	29	10	22	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
PM2.5	1A3di(i)	32	31	43	12	11	3	21	15	73	14	0	61	40	90	64	121	184	235	250	172
PM2.5	1A3dii	8	21	18	17	31	14	49	88	42	30	26	10	7	12	18	14	13	14	41	44
PM2.5	2G	32	37	32	38	41	44	64	68	37	32	35	38	42	33	34	39	38	38	46	30
PM2.5	5C2	67	60	56	49	28	10	9	9	8	8	8	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
PM10	1A1a	83	83	83	83	85	82	148	164	141	110	111	87	77	13	0	0	0	0	0	0
PM10	1A3di(i)	35	34	47	13	12	3	24	17	81	16	0	67	44	99	70	132	202	259	274	188
TSP	1A1a	111	111	111	116	117	115	199	220	189	147	149	117	103	17	1	1	0	0	0	0
TSP	1A3ai(i)	259	222	197	212	241	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	25	33	28	24
TSP	1A3di(i)	35	34	47	13	12	3	24	17	81	16	0	67	44	99	70	132	202	259	274	188
BC	1A2e	16	21	24	14	2	2	6	10	12	11	8	8	10	7	3	6	6	3	4	2
BC	1A2gviii	4	4	4	14	18	13	10	5	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
BC	1A3ai(ii)						3	4	4	3	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	7	9	11	8
BC	1A3bvii	0	0	5	5	6	6	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	8	8	8
BC	1A3di(i)	8	9	13	3	3	0	3	2	10	2	0	10	5	15	13	25	34	41	45	35
BC	1A3dii	2	4	3	5	8	4	9	13	9	6	6	3	2	3	4	4	4	5	8	9
BC	5C2	28	25	24	21	12	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A1a	778	871	814	380345	380337	484358	629741	629440	629420	629387	629409	629387	629432	629332	643683	618840	1119290	1245971	1072205	835475	843191	663120	586103	96183	284	233	131	134	133	276
Pb	1A2f	64292	58418	40657	46641	45305	29907	22515	36907	47167	44270	45859	60242	45161	40963	66607	69688	83002	85477	74465	35202	12605	27126	0	99	110	122	147	155	161	172
Pb	1A4ai	620	585	585	47351	47351	47351	47351	47351	47351	60871	60871	60802	60802	88813	78379	60664	60423	72903	42015	30952	36360	19343	19031	103	103	103	52	52	52	100
Pb	2G	89653	71363	121465	112037	105156	111035	139853	165790	213576	428899	296472	377740	261030	409473	443039	500393	805456	852783	387287	330612	384690	432125	492593	311878	400935	471914	472071	476177	595539	368027
Pb	5E	56168	55684	55690	56084	57203	57463	56528	48392	48807	50498	50814	50951	50539	49479	34716	52653	48841	60777	86158	55306	40626	42281	50311	38493	44149	44924	76039	61227	46420	23885
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	394941	367367	398646	828361	821703	938373	1098909	1152591	1210332	1448779	1322964	1429064	1291600	1458484	1523867	1559114	2372576	2581841	1913278	1498868	1503937	1358256	1320764	617675	670561	715980	770294	751582	842928	555766
Pb	NTCOMPL(NECD)	394941	367367	398646	828361	821703	938373	1098909	1152591	1210332	1448779	1322964	1429064	1291600	1458484	1523867	1559114	2372576	2581841	1913278	1498868	1503937	1358256	1320764	617675	670561	715980	770294	751582	842928	555766
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	394941	367367	398646	828361	821703	938373	1098909	1152591	1210332	1448779	1322964	1429064	1291600	1458484	1523867	1559114	2372576	2581841	1913278	1498868	1503937	1358256	1320764	617675	670561	715980	770294	751582	842928	555766
Cd	1A1a	221	247	230	12618	12616	16023	20728	20641	20635	20629	20638	20630	20645	20618	21055	20248	36668	40797	35131	27357	27619	21715	19211	3202	92	76	43	44	45	92
Cd	1A2f	864	785	546	627	609	403	304	497	635	596	617	810	607	550	895	937	1115	1148	1000	473	169	364	0	1	1	2	2	2	2	2
Cd	1A3di(i)	60	23	37	60	60	11	61	145	184	129	190	199	282	69	70	10	87	61	275	51	2	249	146	380	301	601	828	1008	1103	839
Cd	1A4ai	12	11	11	1540	1540	1540	1540	1540	1540	1982	1982	1981	1981	2898	2557	1978	1974	2382	1372	1010	1187	631	621	2	2	2	1	1	1	2
Cd	5E	126	125	125	126	128	129	127	110	111	114	115	115	114	114	87	125	116	139	194	128	96	96	118	89	107	102	167	138	108	74
Hg	1A1a	117	129	120	10321	10320	13126	17037	16987	16982	16991	17004	16995	17008	16979	17336	16664	30208	33606	28945	22535	22756	17890	15831	2648	86	71	43	43	45	92
Hg	1A2f	3793	3447	2403	2754	2679	1787	1354	2198	2806	2640	2732	3572	2681	2418	3932	4118	4894	5040	4391	2076	744	1600	0	6	7	8	9	10	10	11
Hg	1A3di(i)	177	68	106	173	163	32	179	337	468	363	491	547	792	174	193	12	131	91	332	53	2	382	157	613	594	1272	1515	1678	1948	1742
Hg	1A4ai	11	12	11	1272	1272	1271	1269	1269	1269	1633	1633	1632	1632	2387	2107	1631	1628	1964	1130	832	978	521	513	4	3	3	3	1	1	2
Hg	5C2	125875	124866	121500	103455	95356	84105	75355	72628	61542	50329	47309	43192	40073	34072	16005	196	198	205	166	164	166	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	138805	136899	133438	127890	119556	110666	105860	103824	93189	82368	79117	75227	72329	66757	53020	35191	49803	54305	45606	36515	35234	30685	25992	12453	13095	13160	13760	13375	13732	14950
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	138805	136899	133438	127890	119556	110666	105860	103824	93189	82368	79117	75227	72329	66757	53020	35191	49803	54305	45606	36515	35234	30685	25992	12453	13095	13160	13760	13375	13732	14950
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	138805	136899	133438	127890	119556	110666	105860	103824	93189	82368	79117	75227	72329	66757	53020	35191	49803	54305	45606	36515	35234	30685	25992	12453	13095	13160	13760	13375	13732	14950

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
DIOX	1A1a	0	0	0	365	365	375	389	389	389	389	389	389	389	389	359	379	482	518	407	270	294	340	288	9	0	0	0	0	0	0
DIOX	1A3di(i)	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	2	3	2	3	3	4	1	1	0	2	1	6	1	0	5	3	8	6	11	16	20	21	15
DIOX	5E	85	85	85	85	85	85	85	85	85	85	85	85	85	102	180	138	126	112	133	117	108	81	117	84	137	77	86	97	104	210
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	10716	10638	10375	9254	8551	7445	6521	6065	4965	3874	3446	2938	2552	1969	1364	861	958	1002	895	733	732	718	695	382	452	373	383	360	371	460
DIOX	NTCOMPL(NECD)	10716	10638	10375	9254	8551	7445	6521	6065	4965	3874	3446	2938	2552	1969	1364	861	958	1002	895	733	732	718	695	382	452	373	383	360	371	460
DIOX	NTCOMPLIANCE	10716	10638	10375	9254	8551	7445	6521	6065	4965	3874	3446	2938	2552	1969	1364	861	958	1002	895	733	732	718	695	382	452	373	383	360	371	460
HCB	1A3di(i)	476	180	293	476	473	84	485	1114	1429	1021	1483	1567	2231	536	552	71	634	442	1951	361	11	1812	1029	2775	2256	4539	6139	7393	8147	6322
HCB	2C3															11786	11256	11537	11392	12361	15242	10182	4866	6233	14605	12100	11000	10500	14585	15620	10815
PCB	1A3di(i)	249	86	196	310	445	40	265	1776	1730	797	1709	1369	1748	670	475	254	1953	1367	7117	1447	46	5466	4025	7936	4986	8827	15104	20466	21012	12735