Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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TIME SERIES

Party: IS      Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
NOx	1A2e	850	450	955	1070	974	1006	1331	1380	1044	1057	754	967	1100	641	93	111	265	451	544	484	438	381	446	337	135	297	297	139	177
NOx	1A3di(i)	476	181	288	468	448	83	472	949	1281	966	1339	1465	2109	478	517	44	431	300	1201	207	6	1247	601	1959	1763	3685	4618	5298	6017
NMVOC	1A3ai(i)	140	141	129	124	136	150	172	186	215	231	259	222	197	212	241	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	25	33	28
NMVOC	1A3ai(ii)	1183	1195	1096	1054	1150	1272	1462	1573	1821	1957	2195	1880	1668	1793	2046	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	2	3	83	99	62
NMVOC	1A3di(i)	17	6	10	17	16	3	17	34	45	34	48	52	75	17	18	2	15	10	41	7	0	43	21	68	62	130	162	185	210
NMVOC	2H2	325	312	309	310	317	307	323	330	326	318	331	340	347	353	370	370	374	373	381	363	375	382	405	429	400	378	386	402	400
NMVOC	NTCOMPL(NECD)	10052	10044	10090	9942	9834	9635	9579	9456	9440	9087	8832	8256	8003	7743	7860	5516	7267	7246	6750	6253	5801	5608	5466	5349	5428	5579	5752	5535	5505
SOx	1A2gviii	306	245	192	233	103	11	46	250	248	187	39	216	268	614	862	739	281	253	8	2	5132	5	4	24	4	8	49	1	1
CO	1A3ai(i)	8813	8907	8170	7850	8571	9475	10893	11720	13566	14579	16359	14007	12431	13360	15246	115	91	98	88	68	74	86	89	99	120	140	201	251	255
CO	1A3aii(i)	5204	5008	4191	4075	3750	4840	5477	5130	5385	5180	4554	4005	3511	3606	3823	24	18	23	23	18	17	15	18	16	15	15	16	16	16
CO	1A3aii(ii)	6904	6644	5560	5406	4975	6421	7266	6805	7144	6872	6042	5312	4657	4783	5071	11	10	11	11	9	9	8	9	8	8	8	13	15	14
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	71829	70838	69120	65980	65032	64650	63584	64307	71200	75612	74761	71332	69832	69257	71216	51021	56280	70675	107973	110703	109348	106659	107392	109236	108330	110757	108904	112683	111860
CO	NTCOMPL(NECD)	71829	70838	69120	65980	65032	64650	63584	64307	71200	75612	74761	71332	69832	69257	71216	51021	56280	70675	107973	110703	109348	106659	107392	109236	108330	110757	108904	112683	111860
CO	NTCOMPLIANCE	71829	70838	69120	65980	65032	64650	63584	64307	71200	75612	74761	71332	69832	69257	71216	51021	56280	70675	107973	110703	109348	106659	107392	109236	108330	110757	108904	112683	111860

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
PM2.5	1A1a	56	56	56	56	57	55	99	110	95	74	75	59	52	9	0	0	0	0	0
PM2.5	1A2e	29	38	43	25	4	4	10	18	21	19	17	15	17	13	5	12	12	5	7
PM2.5	1A2f	47	55	40	33	55	58	67	71	62	30	12	22	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
PM2.5	1A3di(i)	32	31	43	12	11	3	21	15	73	14	0	61	40	90	64	121	184	235	250
PM2.5	1A3dii	8	21	18	17	31	14	49	88	42	30	26	10	7	12	18	14	13	14	41
PM2.5	2G	32	37	32	38	41	44	64	68	37	32	35	38	42	33	34	39	38	38	46
PM10	1A1a	83	83	83	83	85	82	148	164	141	110	111	87	77	13	0	0	0	0	0
PM10	1A2f	51	59	43	36	59	62	73	77	67	32	13	24	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
PM10	1A3di(i)	35	34	47	13	12	3	24	17	81	16	0	67	44	99	70	132	202	259	274
PM10	1A3dii	8	23	20	19	33	15	53	97	46	32	29	10	7	13	20	15	14	15	45
TSP	1A1a	111	111	111	116	117	115	199	220	189	147	149	117	103	17	1	1	0	0	0
TSP	1A2f	53	62	45	38	62	66	77	81	71	34	13	25	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
TSP	1A3di(i)	35	34	47	13	12	3	24	17	81	16	0	67	44	99	70	132	202	259	274
TSP	1A3dii	8	23	20	19	33	15	53	97	46	32	29	10	7	13	20	15	14	15	45
BC	1A2e	16	21	24	14	2	2	6	10	12	11	10	8	10	7	3	6	6	3	4
BC	1A2gviii	4	7	7	14	18	13	10	5	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	1	1	0	0
BC	1A3ai(ii)						3	4	4	3	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	7	9	11
BC	1A3di(i)	8	9	13	3	3	0	3	2	10	2	0	10	5	15	13	25	34	41	45
BC	1A3dii	2	4	3	5	8	4	9	13	9	6	6	3	2	3	4	4	4	5	8
BC	5C2	28	25	24	21	12	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Pb	1A1a	795	888	800	380349	380330	484538	629674	629470	629642	629469	629408	629372	629481	629332	643683	618840	1119290	1245971	1072205	835475	843191	663120	586103	96183	284	233	131	128	130
Pb	1A2f	67670	62023	44896	49909	45868	31109	23880	38046	48759	49340	52139	63296	45161	40963	66607	69688	83002	87497	76604	36798	14286	27126	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Pb	1A4ai	1670	1848	1493	48504	47351	47351	47351	47351	47351	60871	60871	60802	60802	88813	78379	60664	60423	72903	42015	30952	36360	19343	19031	103	103	103	52	52	52
Pb	2G	89653	71363	121465	112037	105156	111035	139853	165790	213576	428899	296472	377740	261030	409473	443039	500393	805456	852783	387287	330612	384690	432125	492593	311878	400935	471914	472071	476177	595539
Pb	5E	56168	55684	55690	56084	57203	57463	56528	48392	48807	50498	50814	50951	50539	49479	34716	52653	48841	60777	86158	55306	40626	42281	50311	38493	44149	44924	76039	61227	46286
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	313520	290305	327373	750313	738208	834166	997791	1030441	1087436	1317268	1189540	1295417	1163612	1341074	1383055	1406052	2233874	2444189	1780246	1406097	1453135	1288862	1253824	553110	577627	640327	682560	660729	769154
Pb	NTCOMPL(NECD)	313520	290305	327373	750313	738208	834166	997791	1030441	1087436	1317268	1189540	1295417	1163612	1341074	1383055	1406052	2233874	2444189	1780246	1406097	1453135	1288862	1253824	553110	577627	640327	682560	660729	769154
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	313520	290305	327373	750313	738208	834166	997791	1030441	1087436	1317268	1189540	1295417	1163612	1341074	1383055	1406052	2233874	2444189	1780246	1406097	1453135	1288862	1253824	553110	577627	640327	682560	660729	769154
Cd	1A1a	227	252	226	12620	12614	16083	20705	20650	20698	20654	20639	20625	20661	20618	21055	20248	36668	40797	35131	27357	27619	21715	19211	3202	92	76	43	42	44
Cd	1A2f	909	833	603	671	616	419	322	512	656	664	702	851	607	550	895	937	1115	1175	1029	494	192	364	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cd	1A3di(i)	61	23	38	61	61	11	61	145	184	129	190	199	282	69	70	10	87	61	275	51	2	249	146	380	301	601	828	1008	1103
Cd	1A4ai	31	35	28	1562	1540	1540	1540	1540	1540	1982	1982	1981	1981	2898	2557	1978	1974	2382	1372	1010	1187	631	621	2	2	2	1	1	1
Cd	5E	126	125	125	126	128	129	127	110	111	114	115	115	114	114	87	125	116	139	194	128	96	96	118	89	107	103	167	138	108
Hg	1A1a	123	134	115	10322	10318	13186	17014	16994	17017	17008	17006	16990	17023	16979	17336	16664	30208	33606	28945	22535	22756	17890	15831	2648	86	71	43	41	44
Hg	1A2f	3993	3659	2653	2947	2712	1858	1435	2265	2900	2939	3103	3752	2681	2418	3932	4118	4894	5159	4517	2170	843	1600	0	0	0	1	1	1	1
Hg	1A2gviii	66	55	48	48	33	7	9	45	62	63	51	77	81	152	202	150	115	69	35	15	1390	15	6	40	17	15	22	11	14
Hg	1A3di(i)	181	69	109	177	167	32	179	337	468	363	491	547	792	174	193	12	131	91	332	53	2	382	157	613	594	1272	1515	1678	1948
Hg	1A4ai	22	25	20	1283	1269	1268	1269	1269	1269	1633	1633	1632	1632	2387	2107	1631	1628	1964	1130	832	978	521	513	4	3	3	3	1	1
Hg	5C2	125875	124866	121500	103455	95356	84105	75355	72628	61542	50329	47309	43192	40073	34072	16005	196	198	205	166	164	166	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
DIOX	1A1a	0	0	0	365	365	375	389	389	389	389	389	389	389	389	359	379	482	518	407	270	294	340	288	9	0	0	0	0	0
DIOX	1A3di(i)	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	2	3	2	3	3	4	1	1	0	2	1	6	1	0	5	3	8	6	11	16	20	21
DIOX	5E	85	85	85	85	85	85	85	85	85	85	85	85	85	102	180	138	126	112	133	117	108	81	117	84	137	80	86	97	104
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	11588	11514	11246	10247	9505	8367	7308	6722	5504	4324	3854	3231	2771	2150	1514	949	1045	1114	976	782	786	737	713	381	450	376	382	358	369
DIOX	NTCOMPL(NECD)	11588	11514	11246	10247	9505	8367	7308	6722	5504	4324	3854	3231	2771	2150	1514	949	1045	1114	976	782	786	737	713	381	450	376	382	358	369
DIOX	NTCOMPLIANCE	11588	11514	11246	10247	9505	8367	7308	6722	5504	4324	3854	3231	2771	2150	1514	949	1045	1114	976	782	786	737	713	381	450	376	382	358	369
HCB	1A3di(i)	488	184	300	486	482	84	485	1114	1429	1021	1483	1567	2231	536	552	71	634	442	1951	361	11	1812	1029	2775	2256	4539	6139	7393	8147
HCB	2C3															11786	11256	11537	11392	12361	15242	10182	4866	6233	14605	12100	11000	10500	14585	15620
PCB	1A2f	85847	78683	56952	63313	58184	39446	30272	48247	61836	62569	66122	80283	57277	51965	84497	88402	105300	111003	97183	46683	18123	34413
PCB	1A3di(i)	254	88	199	315	448	40	265	1776	1730	797	1709	1369	1748	670	475	254	1953	1367	7117	1447	46	5466	4025	7936	4986	8827	15104	20466	21012