Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: IS Submission year: 2019

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2017
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2017
PMs: 2000 - 2017

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
NOx	1A2e	850	450	955	1070	974	1006	1331	1380	1044	1057	754	967	1100	1046	768	628	447	550	452	319	280	289	356	240	88	207	177	115
NOx	1A3di(i)	476	181	288	468	448	83	472	949	1281	966	1339	1465	2109	478	517	44	431	300	1201	207	6	1247	602	1959	1763	3685	4618	4824
NMVOC	1A3biii	262	264	267	265	265	248	203	245	221	244	126	119	116	146	150	139	160	148	110	99	77	66	60	55	40	39	212	206
SOx	1A2e	1477	781	1658	1858	1692	1747	2268	2397	1814	1836	1309	1680	1911	1391	1021	815	599	673	597	453	451	476	587	362	130	319	193	88
CO	1A3bi	38297	38280	39300	38853	39298	31381	31907	23152	23900	14012	19369	17207	15494	13894	13135	12316	10703	9302	8143	7306	6221	5565	4870	4496	3862	4115	3453	3181

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
PM2.5	1A1a	56	56	56	56	57	55	99	114	95	74	75	59	52	9	0	0	0	0
PM2.5	1A2e	29	38	43	41	30	24	17	21	18	12	11	11	14	9	3	8	7	4
PM2.5	1A2f	47	55	40	33	55	58	67	71	62	30	12	22	0	0	0	0	0	0
PM2.5	1A3di(i)	32	31	43	12	11	3	21	15	73	14	0	61	40	90	64	121	184	216
PM2.5	1A3dii	8	21	18	17	31	14	49	88	42	30	26	10	7	12	18	14	13	14
PM2.5	2G	24	25	21	38	37	25	31	68	37	32	35	38	42	32	34	39	38	38
PM2.5	5C1a		2	2	2	88	98	101	119	104	84	82	86	73	84	88	89	91	102
PM10	1A1a	83	83	83	83	85	82	148	169	141	110	111	87	77	13	0	0	0	0
PM10	1A2f	51	59	43	36	59	62	73	77	67	32	13	24	0	0	0	0	0	0
PM10	1A3di(i)	35	34	47	13	12	3	24	17	81	16	0	67	44	99	70	132	202	238
PM10	1A3dii	8	23	20	19	33	15	53	97	46	32	29	10	7	13	20	15	14	15
PM10	2G	34	36	26	63	61	38	50	120	60	52	58	64	72	52	59	68	67	67
PM10	5C1a		2	2	2	132	146	150	178	154	125	122	128	109	126	131	133	135	151
TSP	1A1a	111	111	111	111	114	110	197	226	189	147	148	117	103	17	0	0	0	0
TSP	1A2f	53	62	45	38	62	66	77	81	71	34	13	25	0	0	0	0	0	0
TSP	1A3di(i)	35	34	47	13	12	3	24	17	81	16	0	67	44	99	70	132	202	238
TSP	1A3dii	8	23	20	19	33	15	53	97	46	32	29	10	7	13	20	15	14	15
TSP	2G	36	39	27	68	65	41	54	131	65	57	63	69	78	55	64	74	73	73
TSP	5C1a		3	3	3	176	195	200	237	206	167	163	170	146	168	175	178	181	202
BC	1A2e	16	21	24	23	17	14	10	12	10	7	6	6	8	5	2	5	4	3
BC	1A2gviii	4	7	7	6	10	5	10	4	2	4	4	2	2	4	1	4	6	4
BC	1A3di(i)	8	9	13	3	3	0	3	2	10	2	0	10	5	15	13	25	34	37
BC	1A3dii	2	4	3	5	8	4	9	13	9	6	6	3	2	3	4	4	4	5
BC	5C2	28	25	24	21	12	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Pb	1A1a	795	888	800	380349	380330	484538	629674	629470	629642	629469	629408	629372	629481	629439	643870	619180	1119256	1246742	1072070	835471	843088	663093	586086	96136	141	201	121	98
Pb	1A2f	67670	62023	44896	49909	45868	31109	23880	38046	48759	49340	52139	63296	45161	40963	66607	69688	83002	87497	76604	36798	14286	27126	0	0	0	0	0	0
Pb	1A4ai	1670	1848	1493	48504	47351	47351	47351	47351	47351	60871	60871	60802	60802	88813	78379	60664	60423	72903	42015	30952	36360	19343	19031	103	103	103	52	52
Pb	2G	110589	110609	110619	110564	110581	110575	137705	154176	203074	304822	168720	190834	91522	405417	381825	217624	310785	855782	387287	332013	384740	432125	492593	312100	400935	471914	472125	476177
Pb	5C1a												18638	18638	18638	998804	1110315	1137845	1348540	1172283	946569	927644	968020	829112	952856	997149	1011304	1028027	1148671
Pb	5E	59816	59816	59816	60904	61746	62813	63496	63986	64569	65459	65922	65866	65569	81582	57094	101437	85995	104622	152825	112638	86155	82825	83510	65659	82859	83508	142561	114020
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	294927	288706	274435	707360	701058	792730	957867	986550	1044246	1157200	1076345	1122525	1008223	1368259	2338849	2288468	2921093	3847078	3021040	2412982	2404801	2301264	2117579	1535426	1649108	1711298	1822249	1958463
Cd	1A1a	227	252	226	12620	12614	16083	20705	20650	20698	20654	20639	20625	20661	20648	21114	20355	36655	40996	35086	27356	27585	21706	19204	3185	45	65	40	32
Cd	1A2f	909	833	603	671	616	419	322	512	656	664	702	851	607	550	895	937	1115	1175	1029	494	192	364	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cd	1A4ai	31	35	28	1562	1540	1540	1540	1540	1540	1982	1982	1981	1981	2898	2557	1978	1974	2382	1372	1010	1187	631	621	2	2	2	1	1
Cd	5C1a												609	609	609	32653	36299	37199	44087	38325	30946	30327	31647	27106	31151	32599	33062	33609	37553
Hg	1A1a	123	134	115	10322	10318	13186	17014	16994	17017	17008	17006	16990	17023	17014	17399	16778	30196	33653	28900	22534	22721	17881	15819	2627	38	61	40	31
Hg	1A2f	3993	3659	2653	2947	2712	1858	1435	2265	2900	2939	3103	3752	2681	2418	3932	4118	4894	5159	4517	2170	843	1600	0	0	0	1	1	1
Hg	1A4ai	22	25	20	1283	1269	1268	1269	1269	1269	1633	1633	1632	1632	2387	2107	1631	1628	1964	1130	832	978	520	513	4	3	3	3	1
Hg	5C1a												502	502	502	26891	29893	30634	36307	31561	25485	24975	26062	22322	25654	26846	27227	27678	30926
Hg	5C1biii												177	177	177	9509	10571	12482	12390	5065	4251	4481	7587	3836	5074	13650	13371	18792	17817

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
DIOX	1A1a	0	0	0	365	365	375	389	389	389	389	389	389	389	389	359	379	482	519	407	270	294	340	288	9	0	0	0	0
DIOX	1A2e	2321	1228	2605	2920	2659	2745	3633	3765	2849	2885	2057	2640	3002	2855	2096	1715	1221	1502	1234	872	763	788	973	656	239	565	484	315
DIOX	1A2gviii	750	620	555	545	366	60	92	502	681	685	548	831	888	705	1227	680	1238	519	292	495	525	272	257	501	179	518	795	516
DIOX	1A3di(i)	24	9	15	24	23	4	24	48	65	49	68	75	107	24	26	2	22	15	61	10	0	63	30	99	90	187	234	245
DIOX	5E	86	86	86	86	86	86	86	86	86	86	86	86	86	103	181	141	127	114	136	120	111	83	119	86	160	82	90	99
HCB	1A3di(i)	488	184	300	486	482	84	485	1114	1429	1021	1483	1567	2231	536	552	71	634	442	1951	361	11	1812	1029	2775	2256	4539	6139	6759
PCB	1A3di(i)	254	88	199	315	448	40	265	1776	1730	797	1709	1369	1748	670	475	254	1953	1367	7117	1447	46	5466	4025	7936	4986	8827	15104	18890
PCB	1A3dii	4533	4525	4460	4351	2906	2978	4678	1792	1744	227	439	1741	1498	698	1746	738	3902	8384	2890	2352	1810	398	261	846	1381	551	424	376