Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: IS Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
NOx	1A3di(i)	2447	930	1483	2409	2318	3570	3074	3694	4394	4057	5426	3689	5131	3565	4862	2763	3420	5178	5755	4154	4597	5013	4586	5285	5777	7732	4618
NMVOC	1A3di(i)	87	33	53	86	82	127	109	131	155	144	192	131	183	127	173	98	121	182	201	145	160	175	160	184	201	271	162
NMVOC	2D3a	461	468	472	477	481	482	486	490	496	502	510	516	519	523	528	540	554	568	575	572	573	575	579	586	592	599	609
SOx	1A2e	1477	781	1658	1858	1692	1747	2268	2397	1814	1836	1309	1680	1911	1391	1021	815	599	673	597	453	451	476	587	362	130	319	193

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
PM2.5	1A1a	56	56	56	56	57	55	99	114	95	74	75	59	52	9	0	0	0
PM2.5	1A2e	29	38	43	41	30	24	17	21	18	12	11	11	14	9	3	8	7
PM2.5	1A2f	47	55	40	33	52	35	43	70	62	30	12	22	0	0	0	0	0
PM2.5	1A3dii	8	21	18	17	31	14	49	88	42	30	26	10	7	12	18	14	13
PM2.5	2G	24	25	21	38	37	25	31	68	37	32	35	38	42	32	34	39	38
PM2.5	5C1a		2	2	2	88	98	101	119	104	84	82	86	73	84	97	89	91
PM10	1A1a	83	83	83	83	85	82	148	169	141	110	111	87	77	13	0	0	0
PM10	1A2f	51	59	43	36	56	37	47	76	67	32	13	24	0	0	0	0	0
PM10	1A3dii	8	23	20	19	33	15	53	97	46	32	29	10	7	13	20	15	14
PM10	2G	34	36	26	63	61	38	50	120	60	52	58	64	72	52	59	68	67
PM10	5C1a		2	2	2	132	146	150	178	154	125	122	128	109	126	145	132	135
TSP	1A1a	111	111	111	111	114	110	197	226	189	147	148	117	103	17	0	0	0
TSP	1A2f	53	62	45	38	59	39	49	80	71	34	13	25	0	0	0	0	0
TSP	1A3dii	8	23	20	19	33	15	53	97	46	32	29	10	7	13	20	15	14
TSP	2G	36	39	27	68	65	41	54	131	65	57	63	69	78	55	64	74	73
TSP	5C1a		3	3	3	176	195	200	237	206	167	163	170	146	168	194	177	181
BC	1A3dii	2	4	3	5	8	4	9	13	9	6	6	3	2	3	4	4	4
BC	5C2	28	25	24	21	12	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A1a	795	888	800	380349	380330	484538	629674	629470	629642	629469	629408	629372	629481	629439	643870	619180	1119256	1246742	1072070	835471	843088	663093	586086	96136	141	201	121
Pb	1A2f	67670	62023	44896	49909	45868	31109	23880	38046	48759	49340	52139	63296	45161	40963	62028	34299	47047	86474	76604	36798	14286	27126	0	0	0	0	0
Pb	1A4ai	1670	1848	1493	48504	47351	47351	47351	47351	47351	60871	60871	60802	60802	88813	78379	60664	60423	72903	42015	30952	36360	19343	19031	103	103	103	52
Pb	2G	110589	110609	110619	110564	110581	110575	137705	154176	203074	304822	168720	190834	91522	405417	381825	217624	310785	855782	387287	332013	384740	432125	492593	312100	400935	471914	472125
Pb	5C1a												18638	18638	18638	998804	1110315	1137845	1348540	1172283	946569	927644	968020	829112	952856	1101772	1004796	1028027
Pb	5E	59816	59816	59816	60904	61746	62813	63496	63986	64569	65459	65922	65866	65569	81582	57094	101437	85995	104622	152825	112638	86155	82825	83510	65659	82859	83508	82857
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	291653	287466	272431	704108	697865	786774	953394	981824	1038709	1151998	1071943	1121279	1005592	1365824	2329932	2251393	2882108	3838913	3014458	2406944	2397334	2295788	2111872	1525187	1710351	1692709	1745273
Cd	1A1a	227	252	226	12620	12614	16083	20705	20650	20698	20654	20639	20625	20661	20648	21114	20355	36655	40996	35086	27356	27585	21706	19204	3185	45	65	40
Cd	1A2f	909	833	603	671	616	419	322	512	656	664	702	851	607	550	834	462	633	1162	1029	494	192	364	0	0	0	0	0
Cd	1A3di(i)	314	119	195	316	319	491	426	532	658	540	773	489	680	497	664	419	524	859	1065	779	864	958	851	1021	1097	1365	828
Cd	1A4ai	31	35	28	1562	1540	1540	1540	1540	1540	1982	1982	1981	1981	2898	2557	1978	1974	2382	1372	1010	1187	631	621	2	2	2	1
Cd	5C1a												609	609	609	32653	36299	37199	44087	38325	30946	30327	31647	27106	31151	36019	32849	33609
Hg	1A1a	123	134	115	10322	10318	13186	17014	16994	17017	17008	17006	16990	17023	17014	17399	16778	30196	33653	28900	22534	22721	17881	15819	2627	38	61	40
Hg	1A2f	3993	3659	2653	2947	2712	1858	1435	2265	2900	2939	3103	3752	2681	2418	3666	2062	2806	5100	4517	2170	843	1600	0	0	0	1	1
Hg	1A3di(i)	932	356	560	911	861	1326	1139	1348	1577	1526	1989	1389	1933	1318	1812	987	1215	1771	1854	1328	1466	1583	1475	1658	1832	2560	1515
Hg	1A4ai	22	25	20	1283	1269	1268	1269	1269	1269	1633	1633	1632	1632	2387	2107	1631	1628	1964	1130	832	978	520	513	4	3	3	3
Hg	2D3a	1433	1454	1469	1484	1495	1501	1511	1525	1544	1563	1587	1605	1615	1627	1644	1679	1723	1767	1788	1779	1783	1790	1802	1824	1843	1862	1895
Hg	5C1a												502	502	502	26891	29893	30634	36307	31561	25485	24975	26062	22322	25654	29663	27052	27678
Hg	5C1biii												177	177	177	9509	10571	12482	12390	5065	4251	4481	7587	3836	5074	5867	15482	18792

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
DIOX	1A1a	0	0	0	365	365	375	389	389	389	389	389	389	389	389	359	379	482	519	1247	1014	998	351	288	9	0	0	0
DIOX	1A3di(i)	125	47	76	123	118	182	156	188	223	207	276	188	261	181	248	141	174	263	292	211	233	254	233	268	293	392	234
DIOX	5E	86	86	86	86	86	86	86	86	86	86	86	86	86	103	181	141	127	114	136	120	111	83	119	86	160	82	103
HCB	1A3di(i)	2508	948	1549	2510	2506	3858	3336	4132	5065	4272	6019	3875	5387	3888	5220	3216	4011	6468	7850	5724	6352	7018	6268	7463	8044	10150	6139
PCB	1A3dii	4533	4525	4460	4351	2906	2978	4678	1792	1744	227	439	1741	1498	698	1746	738	3902	8384	2890	2352	1810	398	261	846	1381	551	424
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	208920	216879	214307	231101	217786	214553	212710	202846	183592	157859	155279	153806	144784	136859	163760	149487	209151	246934	204108	172477	169489	148618	132467	86720	110434	88646	103773