Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: IS Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NOx	1A3di(i)	2411	917	1459	2370	2272	3500	3012	3608	4278	3987	5305	3626	5045	3491	4770	2688	3323	4995	5491	3958	4378	4766	4374	5019	5497	7414
NMVOC	1A3di(i)	70	26	42	68	66	101	87	104	124	115	153	105	146	101	138	78	96	144	159	114	126	138	126	145	159	214
NMVOC	2D3a	461	468	472	477	481	482	486	490	496	502	510	516	519	523	528	540	554	568	575	572	573	575	579	586	592	599
NMVOC	3B2	240	224	213	214	218	201	203	208	213	214	203	207	205	203	199	198	199	198	200	204	209	207	208	205	212	206
SOx	1A2e	1477	781	1658	1858	1692	1747	2268	2397	1814	1836	1309	1680	1911	1391	1021	815	599	673	597	453	451	476	587	362	130	319
NH3	3B2	2225	2075	1972	1984	2016	1864	1874	1907	1956	1970	1881	1908	1895	1875	1838	1826	1824	1822	1837	1872	1912	1900	1906	1884	1941	1893
NH3	3B3	144	133	139	145	150	154	146	145	164	162	159	213	190	180	166	186	220	216	222	199	192	206	207	144	170	200
NH3	3B4gi	179	164	155	145	138	137	139	129	139	134	161	107	134	138	139	139	152	154	141	167	146	185	167	169	183	184
NH3	3B4gii	275	225	61	81	50	43	34	45	70	96	120	68	81	102	120	143	116	156	113	126	114	119	115	108	92	119
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	5773	5589	5282	5333	5358	5204	5315	5305	5448	5493	5501	5424	5299	5239	5153	5216	5366	5503	5518	5493	5435	5497	5446	5296	5566	5585

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
PM2.5	1A1a	56	56	56	56	57	55	99	115	95	74	75	59	52	9	0	0
PM2.5	1A3dii	8	21	18	17	31	14	49	88	42	30	26	10	7	12	18	14
PM2.5	2G	24	25	21	38	37	25	31	68	37	32	35	38	42	32	34	39
PM2.5	5C1a		2	2	2	88	98	101	119	104	84	82	86	73	84	97	89
PM10	1A1a	83	83	83	83	85	82	148	168	141	110	111	87	77	13	0	0
PM10	1A3dii	8	23	20	19	33	15	53	97	46	32	29	10	7	13	20	15
PM10	2G	34	36	26	63	61	38	50	120	60	52	58	64	72	52	59	68
PM10	5C1a		2	2	2	132	146	150	178	154	125	122	128	109	126	145	132
TSP	1A1a	111	111	111	111	114	110	197	226	189	147	148	117	104	17	0	0
TSP	1A3dii	8	23	20	19	33	15	53	97	46	32	29	10	7	13	20	15
TSP	2G	36	39	27	68	65	41	54	131	65	57	63	69	78	55	64	74
TSP	5C1a		3	3	3	176	195	200	237	206	167	163	170	146	168	194	177
BC	1A3dii	2	6	5	3	7	3	14	29	10	8	7	2	1	3	5	2
BC	5C2	28	25	24	21	12	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pb	1A1a	830	928	837	380385	380366	484575	629695	629479	629660	629475	629409	629374	629484	629440	643870	619183	1119257	1246795	1072071	835472	843088	663093	586087	96137	143	203
Pb	1A4ciii	28572	30321	33102	34226	33762	34467	36112	35054	33559	31969	30325	27343	29509	27972	26827	27052	24260	25838	23128	26848	24114	22541	21892	21525	20019	20042
Pb	2G	110589	110609	110619	110564	110581	110575	137705	154176	203074	304822	168720	190834	91522	405417	381825	217624	310785	855782	387287	332013	384740	432125	492593	312100	400935	471914
Pb	5C1a												18638	18638	18638	998804	1110315	1137845	1348540	1172283	946569	927644	968020	829112	952856	1101772	1004796
Pb	5E	59816	59816	59816	60904	61746	62813	63496	63986	64569	65459	65922	65866	65569	81582	57094	101437	85995	104622	152825	112638	86155	82825	83510	65659	82859	83508
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	222148	223504	225871	652307	651281	754962	928742	942965	989179	1101870	1019066	1057267	959685	1324208	2267303	2216593	2834799	3752255	2937648	2369946	2382853	2268480	2111688	1525006	1710212	1692533
Cd	1A1a	236	263	235	12629	12624	16093	20711	20653	20703	20655	20639	20626	20662	20649	21114	20355	36655	41010	35087	27356	27585	21706	19204	3185	45	66
Cd	1A3di(i)	314	119	195	316	319	491	426	532	658	540	773	489	680	497	664	419	524	859	1065	779	864	958	851	1021	1097	1365
Cd	1A4ciii	2397	2638	2869	2941	2903	2980	3030	2916	2765	2534	2431	2237	2344	2214	2134	2243	2069	2297	2002	2340	2110	1971	1916	1891	1770	1710
Cd	2G	219	220	220	219	219	219	270	302	392	585	327	369	183	773	729	418	594	1623	739	634	733	822	936	597	762	896
Cd	5C1a												609	609	609	32653	36299	37199	44087	38325	30946	30327	31647	27106	31151	36019	32849
Hg	1A1a	125	137	118	10325	10321	13189	17016	16995	17018	17008	17006	16990	17023	17014	17399	16778	30196	33656	28900	22534	22721	17881	15819	2627	38	61
Hg	1A3di(i)	932	356	560	911	861	1326	1139	1348	1577	1526	1989	1389	1933	1318	1812	987	1215	1771	1854	1328	1466	1583	1475	1658	1832	2560
Hg	2D3a	1433	1454	1469	1484	1495	1501	1511	1525	1544	1563	1587	1605	1615	1627	1644	1679	1723	1767	1788	1779	1783	1790	1802	1824	1843	1862
Hg	5C1a												502	502	502	26891	29893	30634	36307	31561	25485	24975	26062	22322	25654	29663	27052
Hg	5C1biii												177	177	177	9509	10571	12482	12390	5065	4251	4481	7587	3836	5074	5867	15482

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
DIOX	1A1a	0	0	0	365	365	375	389	389	389	389	389	389	389	389	359	379	482	519	1247	1014	998	351	288	9	0	0
DIOX	1A3di(i)	125	47	76	123	118	182	156	188	223	207	276	188	261	181	248	141	174	263	292	211	233	254	233	268	293	392
DIOX	5C1a												55	55	55	32	5	48	8	18	4	43	14	0	200	600	500
DIOX	5E	86	86	86	86	86	86	86	86	86	86	86	86	86	103	181	141	127	114	136	120	111	83	119	86	160	82
HCB	1A1a				7300	7300	9300	12100	12100	12100	12100	12100	12100	12100	12100	12378	11900	21520	23957	20614	16064	16212	12750	11268	1846
HCB	1A3di(i)	2508	948	1549	2510	2506	3858	3336	4132	5065	4272	6019	3875	5387	3888	5220	3216	4011	6468	7850	5724	6352	7018	6268	7463	8044	10150
HCB	1A4ciii	18530	20109	21903	22527	22231	22772	23422	22614	21524	20028	19130	17463	18514	17512	16842	17416	15891	17370	15292	17827	16050	14996	14574	14361	13412	13133
PCB	1A1a				19345	19345	24645	32065	32065	32065	32065	32065	32065	32065	32065	32802	31535	57028	63486	54628	42570	42961	33788	29860	4892