Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: IS Submission year: 2015

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2013
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2013
PMs: 2000 - 2013

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
NOx	1A3di(i)	2411	917	1459	2370	2272	3500	3012	3608	4278	3987	5305	3626	5045	3491	4770	2688	3323	4995	5491	3958	4378	4766	4374	4125
SOx	1A2e	1477	781	1658	1858	1692	1747	2268	2397	1814	1836	1309	1680	1911	1391	1021	815	599	673	597	453	451	476	587	341
NH3	3B2	2213	2064	1961	1973	2005	1854	1863	1896	1945	1959	1871	1898	1885	1864	1828	1816	1814	1812	1826	1862	1902	1890	1895	1874
NH3	3B3	144	133	139	145	150	154	146	145	164	162	159	213	190	180	166	186	220	216	222	199	192	206	207	144
NH3	3B4gi	179	164	155	145	138	137	139	129	139	134	161	107	134	138	139	139	152	154	141	167	146	185	167	169
NH3	3B4gii	275	194	184	175	167	167	161	158	184	209	208	154	185	203	243	247	249	294	218	247	227	270	245	246
NH3	3Da1	337	329	295	308	319	303	327	314	316	343	343	335	299	279	267	264	333	374	414	324	291	282	319	314

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
DIOX	1A3di(i)	125	47	76	123	118	182	156	188	223	207	276	188	261	181	248	141	174	263	292	211	233	254	233	222
DIOX	1A4ai	13	16	11	150	135	135	135	135	135	148	148	148	148	175	145	84	84	110	80	49	54	19	18	0
DIOX	5E	117	117	117	117	117	117	117	117	117	117	117	117	117	102	182	142	126	115	133	120	111	81	119	111
HCB	1A1a				7300	7300	9300	12100	12100	12100	12100	12100	12100	12100	12100	12378	11900	21520	23957	20614	16064	16212	12750	11268	1846