Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: IE Submission year: 2023

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2021
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2021
PMs: 2000 - 2021

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
NOx	1A3ai(ii)	3688	3568	3060	4997	4295	4137	3641	4575	4667	5641	6663	8291	8960	8716	8191	9655	11275	11885	10938	8528	8841	7759	6438	7695	8707	9956	10144	11378	12089	12223	4447	5084
NMVOC	2D3i	1155	1163	1160	1150	987	953	1189	2079	2141	2296	1444	2996	2474	1512	3487	3642	4313	5641	3822	2670	1926	2088	1968	1523	1846	1930	1890	1983	2242	2260	2114	1859
SOx	1A2f	2238	2141	1708	1844	1746	1747	1831	1903	1802	1590	2046	1855	1691	2513	3227	3273	1464	1985	1850	1357	1052	1689	1511	1542	1529	1030	1256	1215	1347	928	693	900
SOx	1A3ai(ii)	229	221	190	309	266	256	225	283	289	349	412	513	555	540	507	594	691	731	672	527	554	490	401	471	526	596	606	723	779	788	281	319
NH3	3Da2a	34185	34782	35085	35382	35661	36176	37706	39079	39826	38564	37026	37513	37821	37832	37086	38035	38735	36821	37234	36671	35231	35111	38924	39173	37605	39837	41452	43133	45483	40168	37236	36397
CO	1A1a	18142	17943	20154	19968	20542	21969	22282	21892	22266	20134	22489	23821	23304	21721	22057	22565	20303	19988	17797	14770	16315	16020	18884	16095	15557	17846	18270	15283	10411	6048	6612	12623
CO	1A3bi(fu)	236325	225846	221457	206192	192333	190294	185454	164949	156861	149070	129197	126728	119212	112813	109607	105970	95945	85831	84838	75977	64875	59654	52926	48678	44430	39935	35622	28111	22982	19333	13473	12914

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
BC	1A2b	158	140	137	137	147	135	97	87	84	54	86	58	35	36	17	3	2	2	2	3	2	2
BC	1A3di(i)	62	67	56	65	59	43	37	22	12	30	44	38	46	55	51	64	66	63	68	58	65	75

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Pb	1A1a	816233	864552	929471	877849	913371	930534	930320	942574	982971	976791	931867	1032252	955367	833487	767931	888941	785434	714573	730594	635100	609281	610985	752065	670101	698870	750074	757595	673025	559772	441872	339640	446379
Pb	1A2e	504464	436695	290840	326282	239193	264091	320689	299872	278781	261256	353431	298845	231905	299498	256106	391884	269061	224457	210144	188161	187001	148288	136312	160298	181029	179054	160145	168556	154771	47664	59475	42311
Pb	1A3aii(i)	684904	730262	788502	596979	502899	641783	602584	702825	562267	879232	1004675	1062355	942514	1097076	1137395	1089798	1134481	1099302	1152064	606273	657381	588787	510482	627686	531566	521200	568535	530401	465545	521608	528202	538098
Pb	1A3bi	139156046	123391610	133370967	114812691	100312273	86503360	70659215	75828649	47585426	25900429	4512203	4152045	4252110	4250610	4368065	46187	46976	48061	46415	42526	38832	36859	33675	31803	30152	28805	2145	2029	1934	1905	1468	1569
Pb	1A3bii	5773359	5645782	5268073	2966749	2129096	1474708	970738	875292	450611	196646	37139	27322	22435	18745	17052	491	494	507	449	407	356	323	300	299	313	345	307	295	303	289	278	302
Pb	2C1	1753156	1575689	1382089	1753156	1430489	1667111	1833822	1812311	1925244	1801556	1936000	806667
Cd	1A1a	108587	120411	128772	122240	128974	130263	130298	136831	149783	156689	141588	158993	140625	117984	114676	130189	114534	97717	98231	82479	77171	74729	91195	80525	84204	91686	90781	78994	64567	51248	39238	59539
Cd	1A2f	4147	3677	3644	3525	4078	4159	4238	4870	4739	5018	7310	7855	7823	9300	10115	11986	11151	11778	9254	7950	6455	7001	7218	6618	3639	6486	7851	7408	7680	12378	13688	7528
Cd	2C2	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	2802	2802	2623	2414	1776	3291	611	721	475	696	1284	7598	400	231	393	100	100		100	100	100	28	100
Cd	2G	37862	40826	38927	37324	38614	41163	39538	40422	41388	44190	44035	43691	45081	39893	34292	35319	35905	34707	31828	30473	27273	27533	25262	22021	20945	22581	19042	24597	12500	19295	17965	18834
Hg	1A1a	153250	157313	169452	160379	165873	170174	170858	169432	170460	164150	164971	179898	173087	157794	141526	164858	147793	139999	143930	127718	125298	123384	147062	129122	133325	148434	149376	139174	102330	81687	57711	72546
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	744496	720919	681243	677947	654213	649642	669079	648202	450595	417389	475967	483838	467794	475863	462960	499138	476024	465265	462035	416612	396247	366571	401857	374510	362318	434290	433955	443788	379325	344647	303203	342736
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	745670	721762	681947	678588	654325	649701	669323	647418	448505	414543	472036	480329	464022	472684	460041	496677	473436	461996	460419	415458	395031	365438	401004	373531	361122	431868	432378	442896	378467	343310	302808	341624
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	745670	721762	681947	678588	654325	649701	669323	647418	448505	414543	472036	480329	464022	472684	460041	496677	473436	461996	460419	415458	395031	365438	401004	373531	361122	431868	432378	442896	378467	343310	302808	341624

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
DIOX	5C2	935	898	956	1025	1078	1097	1123	662	631	609	655	624	468	422	160	230	317	58	1143	1147	1151	296	393	283	452	494	461	495	594	827	484	446
HCB	1A1a	487777	482186	530090	520191	531815	558882	556153	542923	549435	494341	539745	564182	550564	510711	521488	536924	480999	468214	418387	359054	387177	403248	481876	431952	425214	474031	476994	422417	329304	234223	250872	385516
PCB	5C2	1589870	1527278	1625143	1742180	1832255	1864610	1909547	1125213	1072778	1035588	1112894	1061477	796242	717054	272219	390480	538242	98924	1942268	1949612	1956956	502550	667423	480591	769211	840594	782944	841549	1009359	1405788	822528	757680
PCB	5E	14104077	14417921	14823862	15197541	15516338	15834572	15718364	15158001	14301175	18721527	18885511	23349258	46213083	59082665	37040477	25035166	25658769	5781526	5585326	5747976	6426305	5849904	5044714	3087086	2541962	4378019	2112466	2818622	3541772	3094211	3117623	2711093
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	39261339	37723982	35779150	35440149	33956084	32951208	32427198	29534791	28175760	30428673	30209845	33660806	55426240	67594152	44254214	32073610	30772559	10321312	12069083	12025463	12458044	10046615	9404729	7457273	6916092	8968485	6716864	6984855	8089736	7589313	7108238	6569520
PCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	39261352	37723992	35779159	35440157	33956086	32951209	32427201	29534780	28175727	30428626	30209775	33660741	55426168	67594091	44254157	32073564	30772510	10321248	12069050	12025434	12458015	10046588	9404710	7457251	6916069	8968444	6716841	6984845	8089728	7589304	7108235	6569514
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	39261352	37723992	35779159	35440157	33956086	32951209	32427201	29534780	28175727	30428626	30209775	33660741	55426168	67594091	44254157	32073564	30772510	10321248	12069050	12025434	12458015	10046588	9404710	7457251	6916069	8968444	6716841	6984845	8089728	7589304	7108235	6569514