Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: IE Submission year: 2022

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2020
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2020
PMs: 2000 - 2020

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
NMVOC	3B1b	21961	22621	22887	23045	23173	23481	24662	25948	26505	25273	23755	23952	24150	23959	23830	25077	24501	24742	24522	24659	23667	22947	23788	24594	24376	23981	24914	24951	24371	23758	23452
SOx	1A2f	2238	2141	1709	1844	1748	1749	1832	1904	1803	1591	2047	1857	1693	2516	3226	3273	1463	1986	1854	1371	1059	1688	1519	1550	1533	1034	1261	1227	1367	962	729
CO	1A1a	18142	17943	20154	19968	20542	21969	22282	21892	22266	20134	22489	23821	23304	21721	22057	22565	20303	19988	17797	14770	16315	16020	18884	16095	15557	17846	18270	15283	10411	6048	6612

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
BC	1A3di(i)	62	67	56	65	59	43	37	22	12	30	44	38	46	55	51	64	66	63	68	58	65

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Pb	1A1a	816233	864552	929471	877849	913371	930534	930320	942574	982971	976791	931867	1032252	955367	833487	767931	888941	785434	714573	730594	635100	609281	610985	752065	670101	698870	750074	757595	673025	559772	441872	339640
Pb	1A2b	164578	160051	189542	193710	249288	236003	224063	243965	242764	260946	273784	242196	237446	238148	254136	233158	167101	150201	143923	93062	147363	98835	59920	61413	28174	4598	2674	3739	3020	4465	3766
Pb	1A2e	504464	436771	290951	326399	239622	264604	320970	300279	279186	261870	354069	299532	232709	300268	256017	392046	269015	224943	212716	195907	193747	158781	143812	165403	183562	180854	163841	172855	158053	50984	62864
Pb	1A3aii(i)	684904	730262	788502	596979	502899	641783	602584	702825	562267	879232	1004675	1062355	942514	1097076	1137395	1089798	1134481	1099302	1152064	606273	657381	588787	510482	627686	531566	521200	568535	530401	465545	521608	378702
Pb	1A3bi	136511466	121040734	130839088	112649121	98435445	84892945	69349447	74426124	46705055	25420508	4428598	4074846	4172827	4171050	4286239	45351	46128	47204	45644	41860	38261	36319	33191	31359	29729	28424	2118	2004	1909	1882	1456
Pb	1A3bi(fu)	147455267	128405261	137914749	117768984	99790819	85916039	70616080	72514337	43592157	23447932	3978088	3742574	3847919	3901354	4044161	43029	43816	44508	44487	41742	37786	35955	33009	31226	29428	27544	2089	2001	1907	1877	1483
Pb	1A3bii	5728481	5601629	5228636	2945522	2104652	1451324	948367	849119	435033	188973	35568	26075	21370	17834	16229	480	483	497	440	400	350	318	295	295	308	340	303	290	299	288	280
Pb	1A3bii(fu)	6187730	5942460	5511400	3079399	2133632	1468813	965689	827297	406013	174271	31897	23898	19642	16626	15261	418	417	410	396	357	308	279	264	263	270	264	256	261	271	244	266
Pb	1A3bvi	531758	554840	601162	597521	624990	647742	763497	812544	974488	1083900	1226355	1287452	1311153	1331587	1412031	1486230	1555035	1633546	1556781	1422976	1311334	1283114	1233433	1264317	1298514	1365001	1407109	1390134	1405643	1412548	1195073
Pb	1A3bvi(fu)	596223	600629	636936	631183	629562	648390	775701	763177	844302	902543	972629	1056730	1058145	1118207	1215401	1325755	1385266	1416774	1450456	1338113	1226760	1199879	1169358	1191232	1210976	1191458	1291878	1321968	1340277	1313360	1162902
Pb	2C1	1753156	1575689	1382089	1753156	1430489	1667111	1833822	1812311	1925244	1801556	1936000	806667
Cd	1A2f	4120	3653	3621	3503	4056	4137	4214	4842	4711	4991	6002	6219	6181	7492	8120	9981	9144	9813	7653	6793	5312	6119	6308	6787	3907	6867	8291	7769	7879	12738	14071
Cd	2C2	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	2802	2802	2623	2414	1776	3291	611	721	475	696	1284	7598	400	231	393	100	100		100	100	100	28
Cd	2G	37862	40826	38927	37324	38614	41163	39538	40422	41388	44190	44035	43691	45081	39893	34292	35319	35905	34707	31828	30473	27273	27533	25262	22021	20945	22581	19042	24597	12500	19295	17965

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
DIOX	5C2	935	898	956	1025	1078	1097	1123	662	631	609	655	624	468	422	160	230	317	58	1143	1147	1151	296	393	283	452	494	461	495	594	827	484
HCB	1A1a	487777	482186	530090	520191	531815	558882	556153	542923	549435	494341	539745	564182	550564	510711	521488	536924	480999	468214	418387	359054	387177	403248	481876	431952	425214	474031	476994	422417	329304	234223	250872
PCB	1A2f	165857	146711	141247	136751	161174	164921	184557	214981	198750	218904	320273	348771	351572	408588	441115	603207	546227	561313	492025	318923	211508	185887	281978	367342	500500	595350	649897	651810	701873	680228	640775
PCB	5C2	1589870	1527278	1625143	1742180	1832255	1864610	1909547	1125213	1072778	1035588	1112894	1061477	796242	717054	272219	390480	538242	98924	1942268	1949612	1956956	502550	667423	480591	769211	840594	782944	841549	1009359	1405788	822528
PCB	5E	13851989	14165833	14571773	14945452	15264250	15582483	15466276	14940472	14093656	18510738	18885511	23349258	46213083	59082665	37040477	25035166	25658769	5781526	5585326	5747976	6426305	5849904	5044693	3087032	2541873	4377890	2112520	2818603	3541652	3094211	3192674
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	39009251	37471894	35527062	35188061	33703996	32699120	32175110	29317263	27968241	30217885	30209846	33660808	55426242	67594153	44254216	32073612	30772560	10321313	12069085	12028244	12394537	9985894	9407617	7570278	7093456	9183132	6953352	7228464	8353693	7839510	7424600
PCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	39009264	37471904	35527070	35188069	33703997	32699121	32175113	29317252	27968211	30217843	30209784	33660750	55426178	67594099	44254166	32073572	30772518	10321258	12069057	12028220	12394513	9985873	9407602	7570260	7093437	9183099	6953333	7228455	8353686	7839502	7424597
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	39009264	37471904	35527070	35188069	33703997	32699121	32175113	29317252	27968211	30217843	30209784	33660750	55426178	67594099	44254166	32073572	30772518	10321258	12069057	12028220	12394513	9985873	9407602	7570260	7093437	9183099	6953333	7228455	8353686	7839502	7424597