Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: IE Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NMVOC	3B1b	21961	22621	22887	23045	23173	23481	24662	25948	26505	25273	23755	23952	24150	23959	23830	25077	24501	24742	24522	24659	23667	22947	23788	24594	24376	23981	24914	24951	24256	23625
SOx	1A2b	15956	13641	16881	18218	24105	19675	17774	20167	20077	17762	17554	15211	11880	7815	4912	4645	2961	2843	2511	1406	2623	2059	1626	1533	576	53	13	18	60	59
SOx	1A2f	2238	2141	1709	1844	1748	1749	1832	1904	1803	1591	2047	1857	1693	2516	3226	3273	1463	1986	1854	1371	1059	1688	1519	1550	1533	1034	1261	1227	1354	949
SOx	1A4bi	26758	28156	22630	22126	19915	17461	18646	17691	18498	15097	15618	16312	13202	13194	11678	12952	11487	11262	9607	9601	9226	8465	8185	8831	7743	7545	7406	7802	8228	6564

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A1a	625372	667483	727207	695608	727522	748043	746940	763737	815880	809699	777701	859257	781893	671706	661542	731183	639364	569762	546896	455580	454171	458526	574945	509478	524703	573964	591498	518000	408978	304431
Pb	1A3aii(i)	684904	730262	788502	596979	502899	641783	602584	702825	562267	879232	1004675	1062355	942514	1097076	1137395	1089798	1134481	1099302	1152064	606273	657381	588787	510482	627686	531566	521200	568535	530401	465545	521608
Pb	1A3bi	136425384	120962954	130759438	112585377	98384063	84852505	69321944	74401950	46692256	25414253	4427912	4074344	4172363	4170564	4285459	45342	46075	46957	44444	40349	36274	34402	31308	29487	27980	26473	1977	1868	1787	1762
Pb	1A3bi(fu)	147384871	128337817	137845254	117712790	99741527	85877496	70590888	72487338	43574377	23438380	3976590	3741426	3846769	3900291	4042939	43017	43761	44270	43315	40236	35823	34056	31135	29362	27695	25651	1949	1864	1783	1755
Pb	1A3bii	5729746	5602868	5230367	2946787	2105690	1452117	948958	850027	435473	189161	35613	26108	21395	17855	16251	481	485	496	435	391	340	308	287	285	297	327	294	276	285	265
Pb	1A3bii(fu)	6190043	5944478	5513807	3080994	2134751	1469658	966327	828142	406369	174417	31930	23924	19662	16644	15280	420	419	410	391	349	299	270	257	255	260	254	249	249	259	224
Pb	1A3bvi	516320	539617	583795	580360	607039	629455	741309	789366	946078	1051954	1190393	1250642	1274987	1296198	1375047	1448528	1516610	1594673	1523708	1396238	1288402	1260209	1212266	1243597	1277678	1340673	1380040	1362486	1378256	1378420
Pb	1A3bvi(fu)	572319	599449	628896	611860	630798	633314	744015	742369	822000	879388	948810	1030869	1033903	1092587	1187303	1295098	1354303	1387298	1421481	1314340	1206072	1179617	1150024	1172311	1192245	1171722	1267899	1296118	1314345	1282087
Pb	2C1	1753156	1575689	1382089	1753156	1430489	1667111	1833822	1812311	1925244	1801556	1936000	806667
Cd	1A2f	4120	3653	3621	3503	4056	4137	4214	4842	4712	4991	6002	6220	6182	7493	8121	9983	9146	9814	7654	6793	5312	6119	6308	6787	3907	6867	8291	7769	7743	12595
Cd	2C2	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	2802	2802	2623	2414	1776	3291	611	721	475	696	1284	7598	400	231	393	100	100		100	100	100
Cd	2G	37862	40826	38927	37324	38614	41163	39538	40422	41388	44190	44035	43691	45081	39893	34292	35319	35905	34707	31828	30473	27273	27533	25262	22021	20945	22581	19042	24597	12500	19295

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
DIOX	5C2	935	898	956	1025	1078	1097	1123	662	631	609	655	624	468	422	160	230	317	58	1143	1147	1151	296	393	283	452	494	461	495	594	827
PCB	1A2f	165857	146711	141247	136751	161174	164921	184557	214981	198750	218904	320273	348771	351572	408588	441115	603207	546227	561313	492025	318923	211508	185887	281978	367342	500500	595350	649897	651810	701873	680228
PCB	5C2	1589870	1527278	1625143	1742180	1832255	1864610	1909547	1125213	1072778	1035588	1112894	1061477	796242	717054	272219	390480	538242	98924	1942268	1949612	1956956	502550	667423	480591	769211	840594	782944	841549	1009359	1405788
PCB	5E	13851989	14165833	14571773	14945452	15264250	15582483	15466276	14940472	14093656	18510738	18885511	23349258	46213083	59082665	37040477	25035166	25658769	5781526	5585326	5747976	6426308	5849922	5044727	3087047	2541869	4377890	2112520	2818636	3541649	3087010
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	39097394	37563177	35620357	35287495	33807333	32804799	32273071	29398680	28049895	30301402	30294802	33752912	55525018	67693174	44338237	32143556	30840525	10363034	12105577	12047806	12413562	10085789	9479559	7726815	7215709	9176042	6650113	7379241	8603902	7800941
PCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	39097406	37563188	35620366	35287502	33807337	32804801	32273073	29398670	28049865	30301360	30294741	33752855	55524955	67693121	44338187	32143516	30840484	10362981	12105550	12047783	12413539	10085768	9479544	7726796	7215689	9176009	6650095	7379232	8603895	7800932
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	39097406	37563188	35620366	35287502	33807337	32804801	32273073	29398670	28049865	30301360	30294741	33752855	55524955	67693121	44338187	32143516	30840484	10362981	12105550	12047783	12413539	10085768	9479544	7726796	7215689	9176009	6650095	7379232	8603895	7800932