Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: IE Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
SOx	1A2f	2238	2146	1716	1853	1758	1766	1843	1917	1820	1607	2066	1881	1721	2555	3284	3407	1522	2090	1919	1415	1115	1997	1762	1782	1650	1100	1316	1328	1449
SOx	1A4ai	11524	10660	9313	8458	7888	5545	5116	4205	3171	2524	2378	2345	1734	2001	1820	1932	1797	1701	1159	708	667	608	585	463	203	163	118	331	369

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
BC	1A2b	168	152	152	159	171	136	98	88	84	53	85	58	35	36	16	3	2	2	2

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Pb	1A1a	625372	667483	727207	695608	727522	748043	746940	763737	815880	809699	777701	859257	781893	671706	661542	731183	639160	569686	543868	446868	436598	435249	543671	468921	477244	539180	518316	447157	346534
Pb	1A2e	504464	437948	293030	328942	242936	271916	327165	307785	289301	274508	368627	315543	249640	320280	278942	477547	362511	331437	316917	285156	234332	187927	177897	200700	215455	218918	203916	206710	198063
Pb	1A2f	585236	783968	409861	494571	217932	288964	445041	354685	311391	266617	448644	562989	612230	882359	1067595	1036891	1029775	1063810	969226	637869	627667	549001	554043	465168	619998	620737	646867	619959	664675
Pb	1A3bi	137801714	122318293	132120005	113382166	98907393	85187145	69612074	74643312	46847319	25481751	4445536	4088234	4184038	4180341	4294538	45597	46380	47486	45933	42145	38517	36546	33405	31477	29846	28558	2275	2157	2065
Pb	1A3bi(fu)	148867052	129772649	139276584	118543798	100271752	86216015	70886120	72723474	43720217	23501213	3992473	3754169	3857506	3909386	4051536	43220	44008	44708	44728	41984	37997	36136	33183	31315	29505	27594	2190	2119	2019
Pb	1A3bii	4984898	4795834	4402620	2564296	1889751	1353222	831726	768183	373401	164714	27446	20151	16786	14329	13043	374	379	379	325	289	259	250	235	306	320	348	310	295	306
Pb	1A3bii(fu)	5385186	5088112	4641102	2681035	1915824	1369564	846944	748417	348459	151885	24612	18470	15433	13363	12271	331	333	322	298	266	238	230	220	285	295	299	279	277	287
Pb	1A3bvi	547851	564013	620404	617713	648182	671646	790819	839790	1006812	1127005	1272204	1328115	1349179	1366176	1448240	1524056	1594897	1668630	1576385	1421085	1305601	1282300	1232892	1285026	1323012	1391859	1442184	1427327	1448300
Pb	1A3bvi(fu)	607820	627154	668733	651062	674211	675183	792243	788254	871698	938035	1009776	1091190	1090888	1149372	1248607	1361032	1423041	1451319	1468882	1336999	1222291	1203403	1172558	1213586	1237529	1222115	1328003	1359778	1374871
Pb	2C1	1753156	1575689	1382089	1753156	1430489	1667111	1833822	1812311	1925244	1801556	1936000	806667
Cd	1A2f	8154	10705	5673	6807	3139	4105	6145	4997	4406	3822	6339	7735	8634	12539	15298	15030	14847	15412	19143	17293	15161	16068	19310	19711	23723	26418	30170	31430	32321
Cd	2C2	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	2802	2802	2623	2414	1776	3291	611	721	475	696	1284	7598	400	231	393	100	100		100
Hg	1A2b	1720	1445	1605	1683	2012	1951	1898	2047	2090	2120	2130	1835	1863	1970	2154	1647	7127	8560	8858	7989	8558	10104	11617	11340	12552	13456	13244	13389	13383
Hg	1A2e	27903	23718	14516	17025	10066	11939	16278	14188	13700	12197	17429	13942	12424	16277	15880	27274	17473	14458	13251	12061	10726	10417	11016	11984	12204	12776	12215	12640	12006

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
DIOX	5C2	935	898	956	1025	1078	1097	1123	662	631	609	655	624	468	422	160	230	317	58	1143	1147	1151	296	393	283	452	494	461	495	594
PCB	1A2f	165857	146711	141247	136751	161174	164921	184557	214981	198750	218904	320273	348771	351572	408588	441115	553006	529253	561441	490301	282084	211508	185887	281981	367354	500500	595350	649897	651810	701872
PCB	5C2	1589870	1527278	1625143	1742180	1832255	1864610	1909547	1125213	1072778	1035588	1112894	1061477	796242	717054	272219	390480	538242	98924	1942268	1949612	1956956	502550	667423	480591	769211	840594	782944	841549	1009359
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	38990812	37462596	35512776	35177912	33697752	32695214	32165486	29310484	27968445	30217397	30320790	33778894	55547009	67711273	44356344	32174137	30873791	10395471	12130966	12071709	12407972	10068192	9423609	7625047	7003250	8930317	6427533	6928020	7936359
PCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	38990827	37462611	35512788	35177921	33697758	32695215	32165487	29310471	27968411	30217348	30320721	33778831	55546940	67711215	44356290	32174092	30873743	10395410	12130935	12071684	12407947	10068168	9423592	7625027	7003227	8930271	6427504	6928004	7936342
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	38990827	37462611	35512788	35177921	33697758	32695215	32165487	29310471	27968411	30217348	30320721	33778831	55546940	67711215	44356290	32174092	30873743	10395410	12130935	12071684	12407947	10068168	9423592	7625027	7003227	8930271	6427504	6928004	7936342