Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: IE Submission year: 2019

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2017
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2017
PMs: 2000 - 2017

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
SOx	1A2f	2238	2146	1716	1853	1758	1766	1843	1917	1820	1607	2066	1881	1721	2555	3284	3407	1522	2090	1919	1415	1115	1997	1762	1782	1650	1100	1316	1322

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Pb	1A1a	625372	667483	727207	695608	727522	748043	746940	763737	815880	809699	777701	859257	781893	671706	661542	731183	639160	569686	543868	446868	436598	435249	543671	468921	477244	539180	518316	447156
Pb	1A2e	504464	437948	293030	328942	242936	271916	327165	307785	289301	274508	368627	315543	249640	320280	278942	477547	362511	331437	316917	285155	234332	187927	177897	200700	215455	218919	203916	213107
Pb	1A2f	585236	783968	409861	494571	217932	288964	445041	354685	311391	266617	448644	562989	612230	882359	1067595	1036891	1029775	1063810	969226	637869	627667	549001	554043	465168	619998	620738	646867	631233
Pb	1A3	155210009	135900427	145006155	122228504	103235296	88591047	72774840	74664562	45249898	24777443	5078916	4908663	5008123	5292285	5352849	1419345	1480713	1515094	1526732	1391723	1273211	1251231	1216732	1247662	1276194	1265553	1347926	1380705
Pb	1A3bi	137801788	122318365	132120113	113382284	98909264	85185643	69612494	74643989	46847327	25482410	4445708	4088296	4184043	4180512	4294473	45597	46384	47482	45939	42150	38523	36556	33411	31576	29903	28596	2277	2146
Pb	1A3bii	4984901	4795837	4402623	2564299	1888124	1355034	831690	767948	373692	164110	27294	20119	16820	14193	13128	375	386	376	323	290	260	246	235	253	275	290	311	299
Pb	1A3bvi	547851	564013	620405	617713	648175	671657	790815	839782	1006806	1127012	1272176	1328103	1349234	1366089	1446198	1524098	1592557	1672946	1576336	1421275	1305762	1282271	1232993	1275559	1317288	1388963	1443501	1432064
Pb	1A4ai	581731	562537	470155	458506	473957	384899	441592	421572	379786	389056	369744	373018	366800	487157	453163	485572	452872	449858	487617	286834	270424	269265	254771	222572	190609	172304	182398	190643
Pb	2C1	1753156	1575689	1382089	1753156	1430489	1667111	1833822	1812311	1925244	1801556	1936000	806667
Cd	2C2	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	2802	2802	2623	2414	1776	3291	611	721	475	696	1284	7598	400	231	393	100	100		100
Hg	1A2b	1720	1445	1605	1683	2012	1951	1898	2047	2090	2120	2130	1835	1863	1970	2154	1647	7127	8560	8858	7989	8558	10104	11617	11340	12551	13456	13244	13389
Hg	1A2e	27903	23718	14516	17025	10066	11939	16278	14188	13700	12197	17429	13942	12424	16277	15880	27274	17473	14458	13251	12042	10726	10417	11016	11976	12204	12813	12215	12684

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
DIOX	5C2	935	898	956	1025	1078	1097	1123	662	631	609	655	624	468	422	160	230	317	58	1143	1147	1151	296	393	283	452	494	461	495
HCB	1A1a	487777	482186	530090	520191	531815	558882	556153	542923	549435	494341	539745	564182	550564	510711	521488	536924	480949	468195	417652	356939	382911	397599	474433	421928	414166	465878	458603	405284
HCB	3Df	186343	223768	256556	284705	308217	327091	341327	350925	355886	200365	475738	72299	169807	1266654	1693821	1233751	1150683	1214334	1277985	1341636	1405287	1468938	1532589	1532589	1532589	1532589	1532589	1532589
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	40800801	40827645	40895502	40910661	40937791	40977790	40987114	970249	970425	752630	1074661	695325	777217	1849302	2290232	1846373	1705751	1752175	1761526	1763659	1850825	1920320	2062267	2012435	2009298	2060474	2051813	1999918
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	40800442	40827282	40895082	40910222	40937284	40977208	40986379	969363	969280	751261	1072991	693507	775366	1847475	2288298	1844394	1703676	1749996	1759405	1761674	1848945	1918645	2060745	2010950	2007901	2059160	2050680	1999225
PCB	5C2	1589870	1527278	1625143	1742180	1832255	1864610	1909547	1125213	1072778	1035588	1112894	1061477	796242	717054	272219	390480	538242	98924	1942268	1949612	1956956	502550	667423	480591	769211	840594	782944	841549
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	40567998	39215850	36763399	36512305	34802446	33907699	33694864	30875073	29358715	31631029	32753315	36597199	58408763	71252373	48272598	36036325	34773425	14313335	15566473	14369225	14597423	11993801	11550266	10599567	11186755	13665727	11502106	11422309
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	40735111	39391291	36947737	36692071	34988767	34098711	33919016	31104782	29614069	31907376	33051942	36921904	58737643	71604717	48647758	36445343	35203574	14755197	16021614	14793368	14989698	12376523	11921047	10975192	11560223	14022788	11867999	11785983