Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: IE Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
SOx	1A1b	476	493	507	491	515	507	496	618	738	646	782	464	733	461	697	915	1032	1031	981	881	666	897	428	573	12	25	20

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
PM2.5	3B1b	783	781	773	777	775	783	775	762	760	760	726	692	715	738	730	716	739
PM10	3B1b	1162	1159	1149	1154	1151	1166	1154	1135	1132	1131	1080	1031	1069	1101	1087	1070	1105
TSP	3B1b	2586	2579	2555	2568	2562	2590	2564	2520	2513	2513	2400	2288	2368	2442	2413	2371	2448

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A1a	625372	667483	727207	695608	727522	748043	746940	763737	815880	809699	777701	859257	781893	671706	661542	731183	639160	569686	543868	446868	436598	435249	543671	468921	477244	539180	518316
Pb	1A2f	585236	783968	409861	494571	217932	288964	445041	354685	311391	266617	448644	562989	612230	882359	1067595	1036891	1029775	1063810	969226	637869	627667	549001	554043	465168	619998	622697	667531
Pb	1A3bii	5956027	5826801	5438321	3063744	2211904	1541796	1025109	936803	485813	213363	90255	70549	57243	47858	42530	32352	24638	18935	18651	15488	13277	11499	8663	8589	12161	10659	14388
Pb	1A3bvi	522293	539527	592326	589713	619028	641707	757067	805330	967369	1084055	1224627	1281759	1304335	1323280	1404556	1481595	1552619	1628019	1543664	1394875	1281994	1260428	1211081	1240612	1280892	1350088	1399008
Pb	2C1	1753156	1575689	1382089	1753156	1430489	1667111	1833822	1812311	1925244	1801556	1936000	806667
Cd	2C2	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	2802	2802	2623	2414	1776	3291	611	721	475	696	1284	7598	400	231	393	100	100
Hg	1A2b	1720	1445	1605	1683	2012	1951	1898	2047	2090	2120	2130	1835	1863	1970	2154	1647	7127	8560	8858	7989	8558	10104	11617	11340	12551	13456	13365
Hg	1A2e	27903	23718	14516	17025	10066	11939	16278	14188	13700	12197	17429	13942	12424	16277	15880	27274	17473	14458	13251	12042	10726	10417	11016	11976	12204	12813	12295

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
DIOX	5C1bi	34	34	34	34	34	34	21	14	13	8	77	26	17	18	10	16	14	597	1114	416	6	10	6	5	3	12	14
DIOX	5C2	935	898	956	1025	1078	1097	1123	662	631	609	655	624	468	422	160	230	317	58	1143	1147	1151	296	393	283	452	494	461
DIOX	5E	6048	6074	6109	6140	6165	6191	6184	5597	5375	5953	5588	5865	7544	8357	6489	5634	5763	5107	5063	5120	4952	4372	3951	2662	1029	4108	2252
HCB	3Df	186343	223768	256556	284705	308217	327091	341327	350925	355886	200365	475738	72299	169807	1266654	1693821	1233751	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	40806451	40832199	40899479	40914636	40942340	40981922	40991243	973236	975347	757400	1080007	702365	786038	1859233	2299414	1853150	1713423	1695774	1642079	1581760	1603775	1608029	1687013	1638342	1633882	1683615	1676702
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	40806495	40832232	40899512	40914665	40942347	40981926	40991257	973178	975177	757147	1079621	701995	785621	1858910	2299082	1852878	1713137	1695402	1641882	1581573	1603572	1607838	1686854	1638168	1633700	1683344	1676526
PCB	5C2	1589870	1527278	1625143	1742180	1832255	1864610	1909547	1125213	1072778	1035588	1112894	1061477	796242	717054	272219	390480	538242	98924	1942268	1949612	1956956	502550	667423	480591	769211	840594	782944
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	40532151	39187123	36742841	36502904	34789527	33904290	33701184	30939231	29452696	31772575	33083940	36975683	58812847	71669150	48698412	36491278	35256978	14821769	16102756	14884913	14337465	11639416	11517424	10999160	10053960	14516628	12433114
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	40554791	39207058	36763769	36507775	34800310	33914494	33737322	30948672	29467013	31761156	33059802	36934396	58751396	71622749	48668543	36471038	35230724	14784225	16049202	14814378	14271238	11598172	11470422	10973242	10011958	14462884	12388203