Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: IE Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NMVOC	3B1a	9165	8932	8593	8536	8458	8386	8387	8274	8189	7978	7816	7801	7661	7641	7609	6963	7159	7164	7129	7083	7110	7371	7427	7637	7990	8739
SOx	1A2b	15956	13644	16886	18224	24115	19690	17794	20193	20112	17799	17595	15258	11938	7898	5005	4654	2968	2847	2513	1399	2623	2059	1627	1532	575	53
NH3	3B1a	13886	13609	13166	13150	13103	13064	13138	13033	12971	12706	12515	12561	12402	12439	12346	11345	11652	11607	11552	11426	11484	11911	11990	12246	12773	13890
NH3	3Da1	12930	13096	14665	13191	13356	12461	12417	11611	13326	14192	12743	11580	11265	11310	9976	9287	9521	8071	9417	11429	12859	9595	7408	8072	8527	9160

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
PM2.5	3B1b	837	834	827	832	829	838	829	814	812	813	776	739	764	789	780	764
PM10	3B1b	1273	1269	1258	1265	1262	1275	1261	1239	1236	1237	1181	1124	1162	1201	1187	1163
TSP	3B1b	2769	2761	2737	2751	2744	2775	2744	2698	2691	2692	2570	2448	2533	2616	2584	2535
BC	1A2b	204	184	185	193	207	165	119	106	102	64	103	70	42	43	19	3

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pb	1A1a	625372	667483	727207	695608	727522	748043	746940	763737	815880	809699	777701	859257	781893	671706	661542	731183	639159	569686	543868	446868	436598	435249	543671	468921	477244	539180
Pb	1A2f	530933	751819	378860	464290	178634	247439	414105	311447	269918	221795	390514	530988	535742	754190	888758	831167	840337	854008	772818	509344	532997	465137	457271	372046	514180	504740
Pb	1A3bii	4506936	4415287	4429060	2670734	1906167	1296365	810328	678487	356196	167977	90928	70386	56954	47621	42308	32240	24517	18826	18478	15325	13112	11347	8537	8461	11977	10464
Pb	1A3bvi	515493	532294	584253	581690	609411	631870	745378	792890	952043	1066641	1205029	1261307	1283860	1302567	1382719	1458658	1528920	1605067	1525876	1381420	1272218	1251126	1201859	1219598	1246948	1330190
Pb	2C1	1753156	1575689	1382089	1753156	1430489	1667111	1833822	1812311	1925244	1801556	1936000	806667
Pb	2C2	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	182732	182732	156827	128578	85918	87978	31193	35056	24365	23451	46864	35257	15552	6861	15174	100	100
Cd	2C2	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	2802	2802	2623	2414	1776	3291	611	721	475	696	1284	7598	400	231	393	100	100
Hg	1A2b	2008	1820	2013	2104	2515	2436	2367	2545	2606	2674	2720	2506	2434	2465	2586	2050	7466	8885	9161	8173	8831	10315	11776	11518	12676	13572
Hg	1A2e	28017	23849	14659	17168	10251	12124	16439	14378	13888	12401	17660	14178	12606	16420	15983	27388	17624	14684	13496	12278	10917	10551	11137	12109	12315	13132
Hg	5A	28960	26818	24771	22625	20423	18274	19003	18933	18832	18740	18678	18702	19803	19850	19956	20083	21503	21864	22014	21939	21708	21495	21212	21045	20911	20633

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
DIOX	5C1bi	34	34	34	34	34	34	21	14	13	8	77	26	17	18	10	16	14	597	1114	416	6	10	6	5	3	3
DIOX	5C2	935	898	956	1025	1078	1097	1123	662	631	609	655	624	468	422	160	230	317	58	1143	1147	1151	296	393	283	452	494
DIOX	5E	10170	10277	10418	10546	10655	10764	10726	9925	9460	11174	11692	13308	20806	25259	17689	13387	13552	6913	6947	6911	6764	6665	6621	6497	6477	6476
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	66169	65081	57216	56742	51770	48909	49928	44985	43758	38581	39682	39622	45986	49652	41571	38450	37887	30898	33321	33015	31433	28831	28345	29167	26902	26517
DIOX	NTCOMPLIANCE	66283	65172	57267	56801	51772	48905	49941	44898	43539	38283	39249	39225	45551	49289	41234	38185	37607	30532	33133	32838	31241	28651	28177	29021	26725	26264
HCB	3Df	186343	223768	256556	284705	308217	327091	341327	350925	355886	200365	475738	72299	169807	1266654	1693821	1233751	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	40800247	40825972	40893285	40908603	40935717	40976023	40985159	966901	969005	750505	1073011	695172	778790	1852142	2292654	1845827	1706470	1688777	1634688	1575383	1597738	1602256	1681655	1633574	1629727	1678729
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	40796887	40822752	40889705	40905023	40931577	40972383	40981259	962861	964725	745845	1067677	690145	773650	1846749	2285891	1839461	1700232	1683851	1629582	1570407	1592748	1597923	1677076	1629095	1624121	1673200
PCB	5C2	1589870	1527278	1625143	1742180	1832255	1864610	1909547	1125213	1072778	1035588	1112894	1061477	796242	717054	272219	390480	538242	98924	1942268	1949612	1956956	502550	667423	480591	769211	840594
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	43108045	41755887	39303425	39052332	37342464	36447708	36234840	33066790	31449521	33754747	35694833	39778234	61354911	74488300	51499082	38901910	37499457	16412614	17794876	16466448	15976914	13924246	14270761	14530280	16376544	17022122
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	43108045	41755887	39303425	39052332	37342464	36447708	36234840	33066790	31449521	33754747	35694833	39778234	61354911	74488300	51499082	38901910	37499457	16412614	17794876	16466448	15976914	13924246	14270761	14530280	16376544	17022122