Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: IE Submission year: 2016

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2014
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2014
PMs: 2000 - 2014

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
NOx	1A4ai	3060	3098	3001	3001	3249	2838	2988	3028	2942	3120	3164	3234	3161	3307	3024	3304	3127	3239	3562	3111	3119	2863	2881	2680	2452
NMVOC	3B1a	9165	8932	8593	8536	8458	8386	8387	8274	8189	7978	7816	7801	7661	7641	7609	6963	7159	7164	7132	7090	7126	7385	7445	7628	7977
SOx	1A2f	2253	2058	1652	1794	1671	1669	1798	1796	1714	1491	1863	1881	1403	1874	2239	2257	1522	2090	1919	1415	1115	1997	1735	1782	1645
NH3	3B1a	13886	13609	13166	13150	13103	13064	13138	13033	12971	12706	12515	12561	12402	12439	12346	11345	11652	11607	11556	11439	11515	11937	12022	12281	12799
NH3	3Da1	12930	13096	14665	13191	13356	12461	12417	11611	13326	14192	12743	11580	11265	11310	9976	9287	9521	8071	9417	11429	12859	9595	7408	8072	8527

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
PM2.5	3B1b	837	834	827	832	829	838	829	814	812	815	774	739	764	789	777
PM10	3B1b	1273	1269	1258	1265	1262	1275	1261	1239	1236	1240	1178	1124	1162	1201	1182
TSP	3B1b	2769	2761	2737	2751	2744	2775	2744	2698	2691	2698	2564	2448	2533	2616	2575
BC	1A4ai	202	203	203	202	184	203	185	189	217	182	170	173	169	156	141

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Pb	1A1a	625372	667483	727207	695608	727522	748043	746940	763737	815880	809699	777701	859257	781893	671706	661542	731183	639159	569686	543868	446868	436598	435249	543671	468921	477244
Pb	1A2f	693857	752043	379057	464498	178816	247613	414269	311604	270072	221957	390707	531178	535933	754385	888973	831405	840536	854148	772891	509395	533048	465197	412787	372103	514238
Pb	1A3bii	4506936	4415287	4429060	2670734	1906167	1296365	810328	678487	356196	167977	90928	70386	56954	47621	42308	32240	24517	18826	18478	15325	13111	11346	8537	8460	11977
Pb	1A3bvi	515492	532294	584252	581689	609411	631868	745377	792883	952051	1066649	1205030	1261306	1283870	1302567	1382718	1458657	1528920	1605067	1529166	1374988	1258348	1251126	1204276	1228933	1272492
Pb	2C1	1753156	1575689	1382089	1753156	1430489	1667111	1833822	1812311	1925244	1801556	1936000	806667
Pb	2C2	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	182732	182732	156827	128578	85918	87978	31193	35056	24365	23451	46864	35257	15552	6861	15174	100
Cd	1A2e	5628	4563	2488	2969	1385	1780	2766	2208	1985	1619	2616	1847	1531	37359	37236	48536	52129	52408	37115	32256	32739	26218	13013	13298	29808
Cd	1A2gviii	336	55516	50776	51016	52627	52822	60654	60403	77572	77441	85488	96999	96664	57206	74510	96933	93168	83040	77884	74847	88067	81883	83840	88116	95039
Cd	2C2	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	2802	2802	2623	2414	1776	3291	611	721	475	696	1284	7598	400	231	393	100
Hg	1A2e	52448	49942	39536	45369	37114	40221	45316	45410	49153	47930	59870	54744	54749	57573	60501	73484	56558	46271	41583	38748	39079	39634	40917	42755	41765
Hg	1A2gviii	22913	32343	26797	30803	26570	28632	31519	31623	33801	31848	36114	33809	30904	30513	30505	28588	21910	36057	36872	31133	31834	35728	33904	34026	35101
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	910600	918256	842519	861015	802798	800346	840694	804668	623847	586742	646785	647240	618480	640443	665004	691456	656438	632875	644353	579466	599334	550995	571987	566108	542638
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	910600	918256	842519	861015	802798	800346	840694	804668	623847	586742	646785	647240	618480	640443	665004	691456	656438	632875	644353	579466	599334	550995	571987	566108	542638

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
DIOX	5C1bi	34	34	34	34	34	34	21	14	13	8	77	26	17	18	10	16	14	597	1114	416	6	10	6	5	5
DIOX	5E	10152	10260	10400	10529	10637	10746	10709	9910	9446	11159	11692	13308	20806	25259	17689	13387	13552	6913	6947	6911	6764	6665	6621	6497	6477
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	67139	65755	57796	57332	52353	49472	50487	45516	44362	39107	40261	40243	46610	50120	42107	39096	38589	31865	33115	32962	31370	29569	29003	30035	27618
DIOX	NTCOMPLIANCE	67139	65755	57796	57332	52353	49472	50487	45516	44362	39107	40261	40243	46610	50120	42107	39096	38589	31865	33115	32962	31370	29569	29003	30035	27618
HCB	3Df	186343	223768	256556	284705	308217	327091	341327	350925	355886	200365	475738	72299	169807	1266654	1693821	1233751	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	40808522	40834070	40900502	40915520	40942983	40982277	40993440	975586	980766	762653	1086720	711071	795095	1863110	2307086	1864660	1722539	1703860	1648166	1588887	1612385	1617927	1696777	1649056	1644933
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	40808522	40834070	40900502	40915520	40942983	40982277	40993440	975586	980766	762653	1086720	711071	795095	1863110	2307086	1864660	1722539	1703860	1648166	1588887	1612385	1617927	1696777	1649056	1644933
PCB	2L	11932103	11294623	10675883	10019863	9335723	8655503	7989803	7340358	6677338	5996649	5315389	4626729	3927107	3193546	2436746	1662979	9388	9011	3389	15479	7485	6536	2060	735	658
PCB	5C2	1589870	1527278	1625143	1742180	1832255	1864610	1909547	1125213	1072778	1035588	1112894	1061477	796242	717054	272219	390480	670434	341276	341276	341276	341276	341276	341276	341276	341276
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	42470930	41738462	39286521	39035919	37326734	36432171	36220300	33056439	31441642	33748240	35708988	39794901	61374452	74512160	51525440	38932099	37665686	16690995	16232423	14898350	14402802	13804606	13910939	14432486	15987025
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	42470930	41738462	39286521	39035919	37326734	36432171	36220300	33056439	31441642	33748240	35708988	39794901	61374452	74512160	51525440	38932099	37665686	16690995	16232423	14898350	14402802	13804606	13910939	14432486	15987025