Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: IE Submission year: 2015

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2013
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2013
PMs: 2000 - 2013

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
NMVOC	3B1a	9132	8900	8563	8505	8428	8356	8357	8244	8160	7950	7788	7774	7633	7614	7582	6938	7133	7138	7106	7064	7101	7359	7419	7601
SOx	1A2f	2253	2058	1652	1794	1671	1669	1798	1796	1714	1491	1863	1881	1403	1874	2239	2257	1522	2090	1919	1412	1115	2000	1735	1783
NH3	3Da1	12930	13096	14665	13191	13356	12461	12417	11611	13326	14192	12743	11580	11265	11310	9976	9287	9521	8071	9417	11429	12859	9595	7408	8072

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
BC	1A4ai	216	217	215	202	184	203	185	189	217	182	170	173	169	157

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Pb	1A1a	625372	667483	727207	695608	727522	748043	746940	763737	815880	809699	777701	859257	781893	671706	661542	731183	639159	569686	543868	446868	436474	435249	543671	468921
Pb	1A2f	693857	752043	379057	464498	178816	247613	414269	311604	270072	221957	390707	531178	535933	754385	888973	831405	840536	854148	772891	509394	533048	465197	412790	372106
Pb	1A3bii	4610473	4522613	4543468	2775738	2014166	1405065	947200	828194	547839	388019	366768	358928	354457	358084	386635	389938	409700	427356	381213	327761	280760	285684	254495	266765
Pb	2A3	469290	469250	469210	469169	469129	469089	469048	469008	467837	468425	468658	486729	489266	3360673	3360578	3162909	2156496	2362922	2362603	197041
Pb	2C1	1430489	1430489	1430489	1430489	1430489	1667111	1833822	1812311	1925244	1801556	1936000	806667
Pb	2C2	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	182732	182732	156827	128578	85918	87978	31193	35056	24365	23451	46864	35257	15552	6861	15174
Cd	1A2e	5628	4563	2488	2969	1385	1780	2766	2208	1985	1619	2616	1847	1531	37359	37236	48536	52129	52408	37115	32255	32739	32804	28712	23754
Cd	1A2gviii	336	55516	50776	51016	52627	52822	60654	60403	77572	77441	85488	96999	96664	57206	74510	96933	93168	83040	77884	74847	88067	81883	83842	88116
Cd	2C1	176225	176225	176225	176225	176225	205375	225912	223262	237175	221938	238500	99375
Cd	2C2	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	2802	2802	2623	2414	1776	3291	611	721	475	696	1284	7598	400	231	393
Hg	1A2gviii	22913	32343	26797	30803	26570	28632	31519	31623	33801	31848	36114	33809	30904	30513	30505	28588	21910	36057	36872	31130	31834	35730	34888	34182
Hg	2C1	26600	26600	26600	26600	26600	31000	34100	33700	35800	33500	36000	15000
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	904184	915195	843110	854769	802603	800259	840613	804604	623969	586803	646855	647346	618611	640473	665089	691617	656672	633181	644717	579620	599512	551397	574538	563461
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	904184	915195	843110	854769	802603	800259	840613	804604	623969	586803	646855	647346	618611	640473	665089	691617	656672	633181	644717	579620	599512	551397	574538	563461

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
DIOX	5C1bi	34	34	34	34	34	34	21	14	13	8	77	26	17	18	10	16	14	597	1114	416	6	10	6	5
DIOX	5E	9908	10015	10156	10284	10393	10502	10465	9699	9244	10955	11692	13308	20806	25259	17689	13387	13552	6913	6947	6911	6764	6665	6621	6622
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	66198	64944	57191	56477	51674	48859	49939	44973	43893	38632	40030	40107	46526	50131	42117	39114	38611	31894	33147	32998	31406	29629	29100	30264
DIOX	NTCOMPLIANCE	66198	64944	57191	56477	51674	48859	49939	44973	43893	38632	40030	40107	46526	50131	42117	39114	38611	31894	33147	32998	31406	29629	29100	30264
HCB	3I	186343	223768	256556	284705	308217	327091	341327	350925	355886	200365	475738	72299	169807	1266654	1693821	1233751	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	40808522	40834070	40900502	40915520	40942983	40982277	40993440	975586	980766	762653	1086720	711071	795095	1863110	2307086	1864660	1722539	1703860	1648166	1588887	1612385	1619497	1700524	1651433
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	40808522	40834070	40900502	40915520	40942983	40982277	40993440	975586	980766	762653	1086720	711071	795095	1863110	2307086	1864660	1722539	1703860	1648166	1588887	1612385	1619497	1700524	1651433
PCB	2L	11932103	11294623	10675883	10019863	9335723	8655503	7989803	7340358	6677338	5996649	5315389	4626729	3927107	3193546	2436746	1662979	9388	9011	3389	15479	7485	6536	2060	735
PCB	5C2	1589870	1527278	1625143	1742180	1832255	1864610	1909547	1125213	1072778	1035588	1112894	1061477	796242	717054	272219	390480	670434	341276	341276	341276	341276	341276	341276	341276
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	42159300	41426832	38974891	38724289	37015104	36120541	35908670	32787531	31185108	33487664	35708988	39794901	61374452	74512160	51525440	38931881	37665340	16690672	16232517	14898055	14402699	14002685	13911626	14468699
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	42159300	41426832	38974891	38724289	37015104	36120541	35908670	32787531	31185108	33487664	35708988	39794901	61374452	74512160	51525440	38931881	37665340	16690672	16232517	14898055	14402699	14002685	13911626	14468699