Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: IE Submission year: 2013

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2011
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2011
PMs: 2000 - 2011

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
NOx	1A1a	46374	46188	53065	46944	45100	41391	41867	40202	39394	38779	39731	41156	37630	33820	32342	32396	29885	27347	22040	13340	11537	8024
NOx	FUTOTAL	128155	129326	136646	127109	123662	122442	126735	123269	124045	120957	121868	125353	116463	117374	119285	120855	116262	112251	104409	83088	75392	67636
NMVOC	FUTOTAL	88303	88879	87317	84389	81580	79246	83096	80575	80510	71511	65602	63881	60152	57996	55575	54137	53203	51437	49318	46919	44509	43119
SOx	1A3di(i)	555	1297	698	1317	1227	3051	3628	3135	3215	3174	2425	2404	3146	3855	3003	1560	2956	3858	2563	1915	2322	613
NH3	4B1a	26710	26179	25326	25296	25205	25130	25272	25069	24950	24441	24074	24163	23857	23927	23747	20909	21960	22036	22233	22006	21854	22732
CO	GRIDTOTAL	401594	403343	391540	359281	336482	313805	320104	304847	314553	279532	252377	241627	222357	210734	200959	190786	182365	171034	158349	151247	139363	127005
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	401594	403343	391540	359281	336482	313805	320104	304847	314553	279532	252377	241627	222357	210734	200959	190786	182365	171034	158349	151247	139363	127005
CO	UNFCCCTOTAL	400410	402190	390486	358298	335452	312763	318952	303679	313294	278185	250943	240194	221023	209396	199603	189489	180905	169397	156721	149850	138120	125713

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
Pb	1A1a	1601389	1670299	1841375	1770524	1842920	1910873	1895594	1913610	2004958	1921839	1902043	1983786	1827153	1598122	1503331	1509416	1294644	1165339	996929	761146	813829	844927
Pb	1A2fi	374433	476058	315304	344983	270449	305788	331560	352577	346342	338576	481613	555738	565198	646022	747071	782968	735459	803448	709436	457613	441355	360051
Pb	1A3bii	9669432	7149296	6556780	4357913	3422510	3137565	1375954	2500974	1677408	845380	187261	136799	117295	100639	90925	72316	54306	43310	40517	37028	32910	28066
Pb	1A3bvi	572672	588251	637961	636557	663983	688961	821474	875504	1049124	1182797	1331269	1400556	1423917	1453754	1542500	1639027	1735776	1828922	1740099	1584764	1471816	1438704
Pb	2A7d	469290	469250	469210	469169	469129	469089	469048	469008	467837	468425	468658	486729	489266	3360673	3360578	3162909	2156496	2362922	2362603	197041
Pb	2C1	1430489	1430489	1430489	1430489	1430489	1667111	1833822	1812311	1925244	1801556	1936000	806667
Pb	2C2	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	1712144	182732	182732	156827	128578	85918	87978	31193	35056	24365	23451	46864	35257	15552
Cd	1A1a	77594	106669	112244	109899	120574	118853	119793	143037	181567	213297	168069	194902	150914	108490	126389	126964	110103	75499	66706	43713	33242	25959
Cd	1A2fi	86330	69276	63825	63307	80058	81384	62899	91356	87754	92984	127237	129712	134249	151894	175131	190509	172982	200649	170805	95434	81336	51578
Cd	2C1	176225	176225	176225	176225	176225	205375	225912	223262	237175	221938	238500	99375
Cd	2C2	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	32541	2802	2802	2623	2414	1776	3291	611	721	475	696	1284	7598	400
Cd	FUTOTAL	852107	875098	883096	871688	961696	961339	922742	1005884	1033202	1027549	1077603	957426	759467	709004	726903	743937	664663	655522	601673	447886	450774	324093
Cd	GRIDTOTAL	850640	874080	882766	871173	962052	961962	923350	1008344	1037886	1034277	1086669	965846	768220	716802	734419	750409	671362	663805	607239	451811	454963	328381
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	850640	874080	882766	871173	962052	961962	923350	1008344	1037886	1034277	1086669	965846	768220	716802	734419	750409	671362	663805	607239	451811	454963	328381
Hg	1A2fi	155346	198682	122630	129585	115318	134602	110632	166814	148633	150071	257182	303123	328205	421498	496755	508598	480575	567106	481950	244602	214187	148416
Hg	1A3di(i)	697053	697053	697053	697053	697053	697053	697053	655650	683964	737320	636017	672492	633881	756414	651839	437077	568131	541541	341725	419123	581964	438615
Hg	1A4bi	224905	242602	194083	186589	180029	172571	167485	184482	179814	153097	162250	187842	159657	149851	121452	133454	116957	120362	116062	106974	101010	86139
Hg	FUTOTAL	866291	925754	780300	772779	756835	774903	731266	833823	591088	564763	722800	855289	777204	844169	807872	850716	788090	868088	767488	468125	428992	347222
Hg	GRIDTOTAL	866298	925761	780307	772784	756841	774909	731272	833830	591096	564771	722808	855298	777212	844177	807881	850724	788099	868098	767497	468132	428999	347229
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	866298	925761	780307	772784	756841	774909	731272	833830	591096	564771	722808	855298	777212	844177	807881	850724	788099	868098	767497	468132	428999	347229

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
DIOX	1A3	652	661	685	693	715	725	776	790	846	884	931	969	985	999	1054	1089	1077	1070	1084	1047	930	804
DIOX	6Ce	935	898	956	1025	1078	1097	1123	662	631	609	655	624	468	422	160	230	394	201	201	201	201	201
DIOX	FUTOTAL	26407	26334	25078	25131	25129	25209	25528	24087	21182	21763	22699	23675	30340	34708	26611	22965	22848	16043	16212	15772	15559	14860
DIOX	GRIDTOTAL	26359	26285	25051	25100	25112	25205	25530	24121	21244	21866	22828	23793	30447	34812	26709	23064	22942	16149	16272	15775	15600	14977
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	26359	26285	25051	25100	25112	25205	25530	24121	21244	21866	22828	23793	30447	34812	26709	23064	22942	16149	16272	15775	15600	14977
HCB	4G	186343	223768	256556	284705	308217	327091	341327	350925	355886	200365	475738	72299	169807	1266654	1693821	1233751	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683	1150683
HCB	GRIDTOTAL	40248789	40283012	40312597	40337545	40357854	40373526	40384487	385207	376680	220520	495399	91861	188126	1291289	1719074	1255679	1169454	1166568	1163032	1163272	1161343	1166596
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	40248789	40283012	40312597	40337545	40357854	40373526	40384487	385207	376680	220520	495399	91861	188126	1291289	1719074	1255679	1169454	1166568	1163032	1163272	1161343	1166596