Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: HU Submission year: 2022

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2020
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2020
PMs: 2000 - 2020

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
NOx	1A4bi	19260	19524	14208	15165	13044	12411	12967	12300	10173	10545	11716	12748	11596	13815	12530	13225	12666	11198	11047	11973	12836	12914	12655	12324	10602	11575	11986	12231	10863	10368	10803
NOx	1A4cii	14228	11402	11511	11411	11616	11223	11887	11816	12653	12649	12196	10294	10900	10142	9118	8202	8831	8170	8346	7372	8316	7603	5932	8027	7634	7647	7394	6782	7105	6511	6133
NMVOC	1A3dii	11099	1477	930	740	383	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	24	23	22	21	21	20	19	18	17	14	17	17	14	14	14	14	8
NMVOC	2D3g	2872	2439	2284	2137	2183	2141	2146	2190	2377	2578	2618	2527	4093	5043	8373	11813	7150	8660	8286	8198	5005	7703	9105	6234	4741	5664	6320	6851	6864	7874	7257
NMVOC	2D3h	4739	4753	4767	4780	4794	4808	4822	4783	4735	4535	4527	3646	3807	4333	4754	4808	5054	5508	4927	4440	4684	4102	4316	4454	3928	4275	4494	4551	4742	4919	3600
NMVOC	3De	3937	3876	3478	3341	3645	3722	3666	3715	3597	3231	3186	3638	3654	3662	3690	3675	3641	3688	3659	3663	3633	3570	3618	3613	3635	3579	3578	3590	3557	3566	3369
SOx	1A1b	21396	19638	19088	20048	18666	18786	21357	20969	15829	18161	9663	5560	1780	2171	1191	1582	897	915	133	368	310	390	399	222	215	265	344	283	231	369	336

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
PM2.5	2A5b	635	817	616	1017	1732	2017	1076	860	1636	1745	974	665	257	679	1049	913	815	610	768	880	813
PM10	2A5b	6351	8166	6156	10172	17321	20166	10762	8596	16359	17451	9737	6651	2568	6793	10488	9130	8148	6101	7677	8800	8134
TSP	2A5b	21197	27273	20546	33987	57927	67449	35971	28725	54695	58376	32551	22224	8546	22689	35067	30508	27196	20350	25619	29393	27163
BC	1A4cii	498	390	395	358	313	274	287	259	258	221	238	212	161	216	204	203	194	174	179	160	140

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Pb	1A3bi	696385810	605212659	233920190	202292486	160551302	114686463	86507400	71319388	66398995	9317150	2065	2167	2250	2292	2358	2458	2535	2658	2669	2702	2382	2196	2203	1988	2259	2348	2424	2511	2674	2921	2665
Pb	1A3bii	59482745	55836329	14496402	10162401	6902566	5029187	4045156	4060758	4851099	761905	265	288	320	324	329	370	440	474	506	497	441	433	326	311	333	352	348	354	364	349	314
Pb	1A3bvi	797326	711010	690705	688704	675176	696394	701743	756290	864117	915863	920758	991228	1084993	1149106	1225126	1357934	1491798	1555612	1601168	1591544	1414492	1351582	1290104	1204939	1354920	1475232	1458461	1537763	1642128	1720986	1516578
Pb	1A4bi	14331441	13935643	6993187	7900072	5099458	4451735	4890061	4627074	2387667	2335093	2618393	2793259	2424426	2950039	2750146	2748266	2757753	2176560	2154252	2528402	2800116	3244622	3291940	3224499	2574476	2649143	2776393	2814068	2186312	1915638	1820667
Pb	1B1b	255360	254980	256880	340480	377340	392540	374680	354160	367080	349220	356060	259160	164160	225340	252320	233320	349980	386460	379620	283480	386840	398620	389880	351120	350740	364800	338580	362900	361380	338960	315780
Pb	2A3	722101	515829	363861	433677	512946	555378	949423	745410	588087	579967	633691	647665	1882166	1829296	1069777	1103819	1154499	1318076	935086	670647	559800	904561	574697	582213	604542	690052	705771	845693	748921	887895	777357
Pb	2C1	14592139	9505060	7589274	8633353	9544460	9165242	9219416	8323084	8943622	8928847	9214491	9623258	10105898	9795630	9613408	1435369	1067016	806407	2842132	1063593	272431	744401	1035906	654172	641744	736240	750454	236622	300992	564635	455992
Pb	2C7a	1296000	864000	768000	744000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	132000	132000	132000	60936	42264	52152	56832	48264	57768	71016	72096	63480	64848	60648	57216	43824
Pb	2G	2744	2744	2744	10093	11956	4733	27048	7051	32531	64711	112818	162602	146843	419536	532044	544870	557695	570521	656968	409624	442510	475396	508282	541169	574055	606941	639827	672714	705600	860750	23520
Pb	5C1biii	600513	600513	600513	600513	600513	600513	600513	600513	600513	600513	600513	600513	600513	600513	600513	587454	7045	6773	5390	3809	7624	5849	5595	4406	4930	3434	3669	3419	3784	360	510
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	815635377	712396333	276922001	241407562	193231459	143080653	114257105	97296096	91002814	28813308	18992676	19480043	20515518	20978357	19758731	10795817	10042059	9610772	11302718	9149767	8453678	9571557	9443287	8872214	8472590	8946452	9061868	8770880	8321424	8560206	7022667
Pb	NTCOMPL(NECD)	815635377	712396333	276922001	241407562	193231459	143080653	114257105	97296096	91002814	28813308	18992676	19480043	20515518	20978357	19758731	10795817	10042059	9610772	11302718	9149767	8453678	9571557	9443287	8872214	8472590	8946452	9061868	8770880	8321424	8560206	7022667
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	815635377	712396333	276922001	241407562	193231459	143080653	114257105	97296096	91002814	28813308	18992676	19480043	20515518	20978357	19758731	10795817	10042059	9610772	11302718	9149767	8453678	9571557	9443287	8872214	8472590	8946452	9061868	8770880	8321424	8560206	7022667
Cd	1A2d	104	53	268	138	957	60	82	84	50	70	26	29	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	3	3	536	29	1302	4	291	20847	17906	22811	36582	43649
Cd	1A2gviii	12781	10863	6613	4667	3852	10318	10030	8128	12279	11989	16310	16534	16454	13291	13617	14228	15822	20925	16532	4512	3546	3417	6858	17104	24276	26980	28475	35962	47798	44578	42724
Cd	1A4bi	513544	482996	387593	418152	382548	378028	373517	356771	333316	340500	626124	716747	416885	620943	566324	540152	578834	611577	512071	760404	867542	1006687	1093690	1121302	908683	969664	947328	897360	745191	694357	694576
Cd	2C1	257177	152128	118294	137725	147772	146928	145389	161907	168371	157365	163603	170860	197907	186970	175708	180738	204479	224496	216928	116664	131557	144680	116925	80949	105145	141176	121887	173960	184389	171391	151543
Cd	5C1biii	77486	77486	77486	77486	77486	77486	77486	77486	77486	77486	77486	77486	77486	77486	77486	75801	410	394	314	222	444	340	326	256	287	200	214	199	220	21	30
Hg	2B10a	655704	655704	655704	655704	655704	353807	275942	230862	214470	206274	193979	181685	152998	155730	148899	75406	88793	54642	87427	101088	79910	72050	115280	81220	109000	97000	96700	161130	37000	34846	31433
Hg	2C1	160984	105451	84319	95798	106079	101672	102365	91240	98257	98505	101611	106118	110733	107519	105817	106259	112327	120612	112542	76309	91710	94378	84429	47811	62394	91169	69075	102886	107618	95432	81741
Hg	5C1biii	416485	416485	416485	416485	416485	416485	416485	416485	416485	416485	416485	416485	416485	416485	416485	407428	198	191	152	107	214	165	157	124	139	97	103	96	106	10	14
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	2821478	2736786	2418121	2456174	2352108	2008955	1936616	1867245	1778735	1762452	1726279	1716739	1649998	1629574	1547849	1388718	1004204	979730	1021012	934586	917695	910213	939389	845716	887804	927079	904158	1009791	877674	855280	828144
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	2821478	2736786	2418121	2456174	2352108	2008955	1936616	1867245	1778735	1762452	1726279	1716739	1649998	1629574	1547849	1388718	1004204	979730	1021012	934586	917695	910213	939389	845716	887804	927079	904158	1009791	877674	855280	828144
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	2821478	2736786	2418121	2456174	2352108	2008955	1936616	1867245	1778735	1762452	1726279	1716739	1649998	1629574	1547849	1388718	1004204	979730	1021012	934586	917695	910213	939389	845716	887804	927079	904158	1009791	877674	855280	828144

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
DIOX	1B1b	2016	2013	2028	2688	2979	3099	2958	2796	2898	2757	2811	2046	1296	1779	1992	1842	2763	3051	2997	2238	3054	3147	3078	2772	2769	2880	2673	2865	2853	2676	2493
DIOX	2C1	12682	11198	11943	11820	12121	12712	13162	12589	11967	12343	13199	14264	13297	8772	10348	10645	9500	6720	7510	14060	13529	10572	9414	5387	7028	11677	11797	1346	3478	11932	9015
HCB	2C1	88888	57900	46230	52590	58140	55830	56160	50700	54480	54390	56130	58620	61560	59670	58560	58890	62520	67230	62880	42030	50340	51990	46260	26490	34560	50250	38370	57000	59670	53070	45551
HCB	2C3	250000000	325000000	400000000	475000000	550000000	625000000	617240800	590250200	511128000	370846000	360846000	301723800	115282000	24561500	1441175	531046	552714	570894	529020	404732	496886	499360	467670	123150	374296	510548	547224	546658	531000	529928	456076
HCB	3Df	4627562	6606944	4186345	2459371	2515310	2684968	2356638	2333542	2035651	2507130	2812216	2547970	2812550	1824408	1095323	671878	666438	522755	290288	324920	662910	839065	1019097	1140284	1579757	1432937	1489480	1557088	1235669	1680568	663692
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	257177786	334277584	407012108	480205095	555264106	630458090	622394844	595403925	516028930	376210476	366565983	307201142	120697320	28974835	4979852	3261363	2182700	2121032	1806660	1741882	2219441	2482917	2642424	2414797	3033884	3151637	3206271	3228789	2855925	3226914	2057760
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	257177786	334277584	407012108	480205095	555264106	630458090	622394844	595403925	516028930	376210476	366565983	307201142	120697320	28974835	4979852	3261363	2182700	2121032	1806660	1741882	2219441	2482917	2642424	2414797	3033884	3151637	3206271	3228789	2855925	3226914	2057760
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	257177786	334277584	407012108	480205095	555264106	630458090	622394844	595403925	516028930	376210476	366565983	307201142	120697320	28974835	4979852	3261363	2182700	2121032	1806660	1741882	2219441	2482917	2642424	2414797	3033884	3151637	3206271	3228789	2855925	3226914	2057760
PCB	1A2d	9596	4798	4799	4903	2343	4830	7018	7366	4257	5988	2036	2258	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	6	0	1	547684	607044	487565	478532	352492
PCB	2C1	7407325	4825000	3852500	4382500	4845000	4652500	4680000	4225000	4540000	4532500	4677500	4885000	5130000	4972500	4880000	4907500	5210000	5602500	5240000	3502500	4195000	4332500	3855000	2207500	2880000	4187500	3197500	4750000	4972500	4422500	3795906