Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: HU Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NOx	1A4cii	14228	11402	11511	11411	11616	11223	11887	11816	12653	12649	12196	10294	10900	10142	9118	8202	8831	8170	8346	7372	8316	7603	5932	8027	7634	7647	7394	6782	7105	6545
NMVOC	1A3dii	11099	1477	930	740	383	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	24	23	22	21	21	20	19	18	17	14	17	17	14	14	14	14
NMVOC	2D3g	2872	2439	2284	2137	2183	2141	2146	2190	2377	2578	2618	2527	4093	5043	8373	11813	7150	8660	8286	8198	5005	7703	9105	6234	4748	5668	6332	6855	6859	7087
NMVOC	2D3h	4739	4753	4767	4780	4794	4808	4822	4783	4735	4535	4527	3646	3807	4333	4754	4808	5054	5508	4927	4440	4684	4102	4316	4454	3928	4275	4494	4551	4742	4919
SOx	1A1b	21396	19638	19088	20048	18666	18786	21357	20969	15829	18161	9663	5560	1780	2171	1191	1582	897	915	133	368	310	390	399	222	215	265	344	283	231	369

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
PM2.5	2A5b	635	817	616	1017	1732	2017	1076	860	1636	1745	974	665	257	679	1049	913	815	610	768	880
PM10	2A5b	6351	8166	6156	10172	17321	20166	10762	8596	16359	17451	9737	6651	2568	6793	10488	9130	8148	6101	7677	8800
TSP	2A5b	21197	27273	20546	33987	57927	67449	35971	28725	54695	58376	32551	22224	8546	22689	35067	30508	27196	20350	25619	29393
BC	1A4cii	498	390	395	358	313	274	287	259	258	221	238	212	161	216	204	203	194	174	179	160

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A3bi	696385810	605212659	233920190	202292486	160551302	114686463	86507400	71319388	66398995	9317150	2065	2167	2250	2292	2358	2448	2493	2554	2464	2492	2136	1963	1980	1843	1996	2144	2207	2296	2427	2685
Pb	1A3bii	59482745	55836329	14496402	10162401	6902566	5029187	4045156	4060758	4851099	761905	265	288	320	324	329	369	438	469	461	451	397	393	295	280	296	317	311	324	329	315
Pb	1A3bvi	797326	711010	690705	688704	675176	696394	701743	756290	864117	915863	920758	991228	1084993	1149106	1225126	1357934	1491798	1555610	1601168	1591479	1414208	1351340	1289846	1204732	1354705	1474874	1458080	1537349	1641285	1719230
Pb	1A4bi	14331441	13935643	6993187	7900072	5099458	4451735	4890061	4627074	2387667	2335093	2618393	2793259	2424426	2950039	2750146	2748266	2757753	2176560	2154252	2528402	2800116	3244622	3291940	3224499	2574476	2649143	2776393	2814068	2186312	1915638
Pb	1B1b	255360	254980	256880	340480	377340	392540	374680	354160	367080	349220	356060	259160	164160	225340	252320	233320	349980	386460	379620	283480	386840	398620	389880	351120	350740	364800	338580	362900	361380	338960
Pb	2A3	722101	515829	363861	433677	512946	555378	949423	745410	588087	579967	633691	647665	1882166	1829296	1069777	1103819	1154499	1318076	935086	670647	559800	904561	574697	582213	604542	690052	705771	845693	748921	887895
Pb	2C1	14592139	9505060	7589274	8633353	9544460	9165242	9219416	8323084	8943622	8928847	9214491	9623258	10105898	9795630	9613408	1435369	1067016	806407	2842132	1063593	272431	744401	1035906	654172	641744	736240	750454	236622	300992	564635
Pb	2C7a	1296000	864000	768000	744000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	132000	132000	132000	60936	42264	52152	56832	48264	57768	71016	72096	63480	64848	60648	57216
Pb	2G	2744	2744	2744	10093	11956	4733	27048	7051	32531	64711	112818	162602	146843	419536	532044	544870	557695	570521	656968	409624	442510	475396	508282	541169	574055	606941	639827	672714	705600	860750
Pb	5C1biii	600513	600513	600513	600513	600513	600513	600513	600513	600513	600513	600513	600513	600513	600513	600513	587454	7045	6773	5390	3809	7624	5849	5595	4406	4930	3434	3669	3419	3784	360
Cd	1A4bi	513544	482996	387593	418152	382548	378028	373517	356771	333316	340500	626124	716747	416885	620943	566324	540152	578834	611577	512071	760404	867542	1006687	1093690	1121302	908683	969664	947328	897360	745191	694357
Cd	5C1biii	77486	77486	77486	77486	77486	77486	77486	77486	77486	77486	77486	77486	77486	77486	77486	75801	410	394	314	222	444	340	326	256	287	200	214	199	220	21
Hg	2B10a	655704	655704	655704	655704	655704	353807	275942	230862	214470	206274	193979	181685	152998	155730	148899	75406	88793	54642	87427	101088	79910	72050	115280	81220	109000	97000	96700	161130	37000	34846
Hg	2C1	160984	105451	84319	95798	106079	101672	102365	91240	98257	98505	101611	106118	110733	107519	105817	106259	112327	120612	112542	76309	91710	94378	84429	47811	62394	91169	69075	102886	107618	95432
Hg	5C1biii	416485	416485	416485	416485	416485	416485	416485	416485	416485	416485	416485	416485	416485	416485	416485	407428	198	191	152	107	214	165	157	124	139	97	103	96	106	10
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	2823080	2738412	2419810	2457234	2353047	2009954	1937711	1868940	1780361	1763353	1727714	1718140	1651711	1630345	1548402	1389170	997741	965818	999280	905413	881917	868698	890581	791310	826066	856328	833518	934376	800037	775720
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	2823080	2738412	2419810	2457234	2353047	2009954	1937711	1868940	1780361	1763353	1727714	1718140	1651711	1630345	1548402	1389170	997741	965818	999280	905413	881917	868698	890581	791310	826066	856328	833518	934376	800037	775720
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	2823080	2738412	2419810	2457234	2353047	2009954	1937711	1868940	1780361	1763353	1727714	1718140	1651711	1630345	1548402	1389170	997741	965818	999280	905413	881917	868698	890581	791310	826066	856328	833518	934376	800037	775720

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
DIOX	1B1b	2016	2013	2028	2688	2979	3099	2958	2796	2898	2757	2811	2046	1296	1779	1992	1842	2763	3051	2997	2238	3054	3147	3078	2772	2769	2880	2673	2865	2853	2676
DIOX	2C1	12682	11198	11943	11820	12121	12712	13162	12589	11967	12343	13199	14264	13297	8772	10348	10645	9500	6720	7510	14060	13529	10572	9414	5387	7028	11677	11797	1346	3478	11932
HCB	2C1	88888	57900	46230	52590	58140	55830	56160	50700	54480	54390	56130	58620	61560	59670	58560	58890	62520	67230	62880	42030	50340	51990	46260	26490	34560	50250	38370	57000	59670	53070
HCB	2C3	250000000	325000000	400000000	475000000	550000000	625000000	617240800	590250200	511128000	370846000	360846000	301723800	115282000	24561500	1441175	531046	552714	570894	529020	404732	496886	499360	467670	123150	374296	510548	547224	546658	531000	529928
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	257178497	334278230	407012750	480205756	555264708	630458541	622395437	595404252	516029055	376210689	366565995	307201149	120697332	28974839	4979860	3261363	2182023	2119636	1804612	1739163	2216016	2478860	2637667	2409470	3027918	3144725	3199254	3220970	2847988	3218603
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	257178497	334278230	407012750	480205756	555264708	630458541	622395437	595404252	516029055	376210689	366565995	307201149	120697332	28974839	4979860	3261363	2182023	2119636	1804612	1739163	2216016	2478860	2637667	2409470	3027918	3144725	3199254	3220970	2847988	3218603
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	257178497	334278230	407012750	480205756	555264708	630458541	622395437	595404252	516029055	376210689	366565995	307201149	120697332	28974839	4979860	3261363	2182023	2119636	1804612	1739163	2216016	2478860	2637667	2409470	3027918	3144725	3199254	3220970	2847988	3218603
PCB	1A2d	9596	4798	4799	4903	2343	4829	7018	7366	4257	5988	2036	2258	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	6	0	1	504504	452514	353775	318222
PCB	2C1	7407325	4825000	3852500	4382500	4845000	4652500	4680000	4225000	4540000	4532500	4677500	4885000	5130000	4972500	4880000	4907500	5210000	5602500	5240000	3502500	4195000	4332500	3855000	2207500	2880000	4187500	3197500	4750000	4972500	4422500