Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: HU Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
NOx	1A4cii	14228	11402	11511	11411	11616	11223	11887	11816	12653	12649	12196	10294	10900	10142	9118	8202	8831	8170	8346	7372	8316	7603	5932	8027	7634	7647	7478	6782	7050
NMVOC	1A3dii	11099	1477	930	740	383	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	24	23	22	21	21	20	19	18	17	14	17	17	14	14	14
NMVOC	2D3g	2404	1998	1870	1749	1823	1807	1932	1957	2081	2197	2249	2373	4086	4445	5583	11806	9031	8659	8322	8256	5018	7718	9105	6234	4748	5668	6329	6855	6796
SOx	1A1b	21396	19638	19088	20048	18666	18786	21357	20969	15829	18161	9663	5560	1780	2171	1191	1582	897	915	133	368	310	390	399	222	215	543	344	283	231

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
BC	1A4cii	498	390	395	358	313	274	287	259	258	221	238	212	161	216	204	203	196	174	177

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Pb	1A3bi	696385810	605212659	233920190	202292486	160551302	114686463	86507400	71319388	66398995	9317150	2065	2167	2250	2292	2358	2458	2535	2658	2668	2702	2381	2195	2167	1972	2236	2315	2503	2520	2648
Pb	1A3bii	59482745	55836329	14496402	10162401	6902566	5029187	4045156	4060758	4851099	761905	265	288	320	324	329	370	440	474	506	497	441	433	415	356	393	430	439	458	486
Pb	1A3bvi	797326	711010	690705	688704	675176	696394	701743	756290	864117	915863	920758	991228	1084993	1149106	1225126	1357936	1491802	1555620	1601443	1591504	1416274	1351376	1309477	1214817	1368600	1493063	1506499	1577310	1678698
Pb	1A4bi	14331442	13935642	6993192	7900074	5099459	4451739	4890063	4627074	2387669	2335095	2618395	2793261	2424426	2950040	2750147	2748267	2757753	2176558	2154251	2528401	2800114	3244620	3291939	3224498	2574475	2649143	2776394	2814068	2184171
Pb	1B1b	255360	254980	256880	340480	377340	392540	374680	354160	367080	349220	356060	259160	164160	225340	252320	233320	349980	386460	379620	283480	386840	398620	389880	351120	350740	364800	338580	362900	361380
Pb	2A3	722101	515829	363861	433677	512946	555378	949423	745410	588087	579967	633691	647665	1882166	1829296	1069777	1103819	1154499	1318076	935086	670647	559800	904561	574697	582213	604542	690052	705771	845693	748921
Pb	2C1	14592139	9505060	7589274	8633353	9544460	9165242	9219416	8323084	8943622	8928847	9214491	9623258	10105898	9795630	9613408	1435369	1067016	806407	2842132	1063593	272431	744401	1035906	654172	641744	736240	750454	236622	300992
Pb	2C7a	1296000	864000	768000	744000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	132000	132000	132000	60936	42264	52152	56832	48264	57768	71016	72096	63480	64848	60648
Pb	2G	2744	2744	2744	10093	11956	4733	27048	7051	32531	64711	112818	162602	146843	419536	532044	544870	557695	570521	656968	409624	442510	475396	508282	541169	574055	606941	639827	672714	705600
Pb	5C1biii	600513	600513	600513	600513	600513	600513	600513	600513	600513	600513	600513	600513	600513	600513	600513	587454	7045	6773	5390	3809	7624	5849	5595	4406	4930	3434	3669	3419	3784
Cd	1A4bi	513544	482995	387594	418153	382548	378028	373518	356771	333317	340501	626124	716748	416885	620943	566324	540153	578834	611577	512071	760404	867542	1006687	1093689	1121302	908683	969664	947328	897360	745162
Cd	2C1	59259	38600	30820	35060	38760	37220	37440	33800	36320	36260	37420	39080	41040	39780	39040	39260	41680	44820	41920	28020	33560	34660	30840	17660	23040	33500	25580	38000	39780
Cd	5C1biii	77486	77486	77486	77486	77486	77486	77486	77486	77486	77486	77486	77486	77486	77486	77486	75801	410	394	314	222	444	340	326	256	287	200	214	199	220
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1727307	1684946	1586671	1644969	1579668	1557479	1531884	1506957	1477881	1432400	1690390	1778428	1439302	1513914	1352891	1231413	1237651	1278206	1245053	1395785	1467141	1605602	1676271	1685172	1513204	1582769	1549333	1521886	1360054
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1727307	1684946	1586671	1644969	1579668	1557479	1531884	1506957	1477881	1432400	1690390	1778428	1439302	1513914	1352891	1231413	1237651	1278206	1245053	1395785	1467141	1605602	1676271	1685172	1513204	1582769	1549333	1521886	1360054
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	1727307	1684946	1586671	1644969	1579668	1557479	1531884	1506957	1477881	1432400	1690390	1778428	1439302	1513914	1352891	1231413	1237651	1278206	1245053	1395785	1467141	1605602	1676271	1685172	1513204	1582769	1549333	1521886	1360054
Hg	1A4bi	545511	542070	307935	347099	252868	239915	262014	248389	169002	172060	171559	182199	180566	207838	190328	201742	191176	154090	159133	161630	171003	172790	163539	154997	132596	142064	151967	159843	138377
Hg	2B10a	655704	655704	655704	655704	655704	353807	275942	230862	214470	206274	193979	181685	152998	155730	148899	75406	88793	54642	87427	101088	79910	72050	115280	81220	109000	97000	96700	161130	37000
Hg	2C1	296293	193000	154100	175300	193800	186100	187200	169000	181600	181300	187100	195400	205200	198900	195200	196300	208400	224100	209600	140100	167800	173300	154200	88300	115200	167500	127900	190000	198900
Hg	5C1biii	416485	416485	416485	416485	416485	416485	416485	416485	416485	416485	416485	416485	416485	416485	416485	407428	198	191	152	107	214	165	157	124	139	97	103	96	106
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	3076696	2951736	2617028	2673341	2577995	2241691	2176624	2096223	2010387	1996806	1959915	1959766	1900931	1885650	1794536	1649239	1247745	1207027	1239338	1108901	1099468	1082942	1087225	960671	1000609	1060172	1023707	1159055	1024747
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	3076696	2951736	2617028	2673341	2577995	2241691	2176624	2096223	2010387	1996806	1959915	1959766	1900931	1885650	1794536	1649239	1247745	1207027	1239338	1108901	1099468	1082942	1087225	960671	1000609	1060172	1023707	1159055	1024747
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	3076696	2951736	2617028	2673341	2577995	2241691	2176624	2096223	2010387	1996806	1959915	1959766	1900931	1885650	1794536	1649239	1247745	1207027	1239338	1108901	1099468	1082942	1087225	960671	1000609	1060172	1023707	1159055	1024747

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
DIOX	1B1b	2016	2013	2028	2688	2979	3099	2958	2796	2898	2757	2811	2046	1296	1779	1992	1842	2763	3051	2997	2238	3054	3147	3078	2772	2769	2880	2673	2865	2853
DIOX	2C1	12682	11198	11943	11820	12121	12712	13162	12589	11967	12343	13199	14264	13297	8772	10348	10645	9500	6720	7510	14060	13529	10572	9414	5387	7028	11677	11797	1346	3478
HCB	2C1	88888	57900	46230	52590	58140	55830	56160	50700	54480	54390	56130	58620	61560	59670	58560	58890	62520	67230	62880	42030	50340	51990	46260	26490	34560	50250	38370	57000	59670
PCB	1A2d	9596	4798	4799	4903	2343	4847	7033	7378	4274	6005	2059	2283	28	20	15	14	24	29	30	24	21	20	18	23	21	17	547661	607009	487518
PCB	1A3dii	358824441	47061294	29413665	23529602	11764972	342	342	342	342	342	342	342	342	342	329	317	304	291	279	266	253	241	228	190	228	228	190	190	190
PCB	2C1	7407325	4825000	3852500	4382500	4845000	4652500	4680000	4225000	4540000	4532500	4677500	4885000	5130000	4972500	4880000	4907500	5210000	5602500	5240000	3502500	4195000	4332500	3855000	2207500	2880000	4187500	3197500	4750000	4972500