Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: HU Submission year: 2019

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2017
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2017
PMs: 2000 - 2017

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
NOx	1A4cii	14228	11402	11511	11411	11616	11223	11887	11816	12653	12649	12196	10294	10900	10142	9118	8202	8831	8170	8346	7372	8316	7603	5932	8027	7634	7647	7478	6782
NMVOC	1A3dii	11099	1477	930	740	383	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	24	23	22	21	21	20	19	18	17	14	17	17	14	11
NMVOC	2D3g	2396	2032	1879	1791	1890	1898	2131	2193	2623	2690	2815	2911	4630	5011	6189	12443	9115	8777	8408	8330	5059	7770	9146	6311	4820	5779	6420	6892
SOx	1A1b	21396	19638	19088	20048	18666	18786	21357	20969	15829	18161	9663	5560	1780	2171	1191	1582	897	915	133	368	310	390	399	222	215	543	344	283

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
PM2.5	2C1	1198	1251	1404	1185	799	678	798	677	625	254	109	196	167	141	161	168	116	133
TSP	2C1	2566	2680	3010	2539	1712	1452	1711	1450	1339	545	233	420	359	303	345	360	248	285
BC	2G	215	234	245	257	159	188	256	255	267	286	0	230	240	182	185	194	184	155

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Pb	1A1a	3068261	3786684	4540873	4340417	4401768	4406731	4417450	4560774	4744089	4664451	4465822	4449034	3597406	3175612	2787988	1654753	1517512	1616292	1694141	1668215	1653902	1545767	1465425	1477514	1481261	1449302	1359799	1273634
Pb	1A2d	7593	3810	4246	4063	3789	11585	12465	11297	11271	12597	12108	13427	12730	9185	6753	6237	10638	12992	13359	10702	9513	9217	7923	10415	9575	7891	458480	493157
Pb	1A3bi	710734698	638618676	619486707	274235175	268212048	264438830	248377286	248156171	251116131	2094	2056	2158	2242	2285	2353	2454	2532	2654	2665	2698	2382	2192	2163	1977	2229	2307	2495	2521
Pb	1A3bii	65910250	62309576	39031915	13773704	11952891	12768513	12651622	14544169	18831902	288	265	288	320	324	330	370	440	474	506	496	435	433	414	356	394	431	440	491
Pb	1A3bvi	805889	718224	696793	694668	680658	701362	708091	765974	880918	943924	922986	993978	1089661	1154636	1231909	1364641	1503047	1568774	1616213	1607234	1426688	1363351	1324362	1224414	1387186	1515778	1532358	1612877
Pb	1A4bi	14331442	13935642	6993192	7900074	5099459	4451739	4890063	4627074	2387669	2335095	2618395	2793261	2424426	2950040	2750147	2748267	2757753	2176558	2154251	2528401	2800114	3244620	3291939	3224498	2574475	2649143	2776394	2814068
Pb	1B1b	255360	254980	256880	340480	377340	392540	374680	354160	367080	349220	356060	259160	164160	225340	252320	233320	349980	386460	379620	283480	386840	398620	389880	351120	350740	364800	338580	362900
Pb	2A3	722101	515829	363861	433677	512946	555378	949423	745410	588087	579967	633691	647665	1882166	1829296	1069777	1103819	1154499	1318076	935086	670647	559800	904561	574697	582213	604542	690052	705771	845693
Pb	2C1	14592139	9505060	7589274	8633353	9544460	9165242	9219416	8323084	8943622	8928847	9214491	9623258	10105898	9795630	9613408	1435369	1067016	806407	2842132	1063593	272431	744401	1035906	654172	641744	736240	750454	236622
Pb	2C7a	1296000	864000	768000	744000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	132000	132000	132000	60936	42264	52152	56832	48264	57768	71016	72096	63480	64848
Pb	5C1biii	638210	638210	638210	638210	638210	638210	638210	638210	638210	638210	638210	638210	638210	638210	638210	585776	426699	237441	339451	235897	473283	358977	158653	102990	113751	25408	214556	203832
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	839202363	755569362	698499988	320251101	309964628	305408525	289973071	290145753	294944147	20304037	20603281	21085034	21584929	21381556	19809962	9921706	9607011	8948174	10705570	8706637	8200811	9178567	8854152	8279860	7838470	8150429	8837371	8550130
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	839202363	755569362	698499988	320251101	309964628	305408525	289973071	290145753	294944147	20304037	20603281	21085034	21584929	21381556	19809962	9921706	9607011	8948174	10705570	8706637	8200811	9178567	8854152	8279860	7838470	8150429	8837371	8550130
Cd	1A4bi	513544	482995	387594	418153	382548	378028	373518	356771	333317	340501	626124	716748	416885	620943	566324	540153	578834	611577	512071	760404	867542	1006687	1093689	1121302	908683	969664	947328	897360
Cd	1B2aiv	41550	39040	38036	39357	35919	38281	34614	35812	36572	35608	34685	34894	30778	32548	32492	35863	35266	36144	35532	32252	32584	33629	31181	30437	33186	33033	33849	33278
Cd	2C1	59259	38600	30820	35060	38760	37220	37440	33800	36320	36260	37420	39080	41040	39780	39040	39260	41680	44820	41920	28020	33560	34660	30840	17660	23040	33500	25580	38000
Cd	5C1biii	82350	82350	82350	82350	82350	82350	82350	82350	82350	82350	82350	82350	82350	82350	82350	75584	55058	30638	43800	30438	61069	46320	20471	13289	14678	3278	27685	26301
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1711373	1671848	1578366	1632661	1571227	1547313	1521806	1495686	1463844	1418808	1676195	1760670	1411993	1482756	1317155	1179259	1242013	1253883	1229913	1368884	1473380	1599347	1643771	1650269	1469618	1521670	1517398	1460153
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	1711373	1671848	1578366	1632661	1571227	1547313	1521806	1495686	1463844	1418808	1676195	1760670	1411993	1482756	1317155	1179259	1242013	1253883	1229913	1368884	1473380	1599347	1643771	1650269	1469618	1521670	1517398	1460153
Hg	1A1a	543314	638857	749304	708257	715194	721879	731685	752563	781660	773340	739670	739946	618723	555135	480254	279977	264406	278350	277642	259968	260686	254729	246196	240232	235486	228558	216475	201072
Hg	1A4ai	55887	116094	76200	82721	78274	46812	51720	45996	44607	47938	48932	48785	44527	46864	56720	52072	45458	35456	33317	35895	39412	47080	36623	35970	34266	39624	38740	35938
Hg	1A4bi	545511	542070	307935	347099	252868	239915	262014	248389	169002	172060	171559	182199	180566	207838	190328	201742	191176	154090	159133	161630	171003	172790	163539	154997	132596	142064	151967	159843
Hg	1B2aiv	41550	39040	38036	39357	35919	38281	34614	35812	36572	35608	34685	34894	30778	32548	32492	35863	35266	36144	35532	32252	32584	33629	31181	30437	33186	33033	33849	33278
Hg	2B10a	655704	655704	655704	655704	655704	353807	275942	230862	214470	206274	193979	181685	152998	155730	148899	75406	88793	54642	87427	101088	79910	72050	115280	81220	109000	97000	96700	161130
Hg	2C1	296293	193000	154100	175300	193800	186100	187200	169000	181600	181300	187100	195400	205200	198900	195200	196300	208400	224100	209600	140100	167800	173300	154200	88300	115200	167500	127900	190000
Hg	5C1biii	442630	442630	442630	442630	442630	442630	442630	442630	442630	442630	442630	442630	442630	442630	442630	406264	295936	164677	235425	163606	328244	248968	110034	71429	78892	17622	148805	141368

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
DIOX	1B1b	2016	2013	2028	2688	2979	3099	2958	2796	2898	2757	2811	2046	1296	1779	1992	1842	2763	3051	2997	2238	3054	3147	3078	2772	2769	2880	2673	2865
HCB	2C1	88888	57900	46230	52590	58140	55830	56160	50700	54480	54390	56130	58620	61560	59670	58560	58890	62520	67230	62880	42030	50340	51990	46260	26490	34560	50250	38370	57000
HCB	5C1bii	94936	94936	94936	94936	94936	94936	94936	94936	94936	94936	94936	94936	94936	94936	94936	69556	121078	112487	109633	108427	129425	87338	89214	92775	96101	30748	21632	30047
HCB	5C1biii	1029371	1029371	1029371	1029371	1029371	1029371	1029371	1029371	1029371	1029371	1029371	1029371	1029371	1029371	1029371	944801	688223	382969	547501	380480	763359	578996	255893	166114	183470	40980	346057	328762
PCB	1A2d	9596	4798	4799	4903	2343	4847	7033	7378	4274	6005	2059	2283	28	20	15	14	24	29	30	24	21	20	18	23	21	17	547661	607009
PCB	2C1	7407325	4825000	3852500	4382500	4845000	4652500	4680000	4225000	4540000	4532500	4677500	4885000	5130000	4972500	4880000	4907500	5210000	5602500	5240000	3502500	4195000	4332500	3855000	2207500	2880000	4187500	3197500	4750000