Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: HU Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
NOx	1A4cii	14078	11284	11395	11298	11503	11116	11776	11709	12541	12539	12091	10335	10943	10180	9151	8230	8859	8193	8365	7386	8328	7609	5932	8021	7622	7628	7368
NMVOC	1A3dii	11099	1477	930	740	383	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	24	23	22	21	21	20	19	18	17	14	17	17	11
NMVOC	2D3g	2396	2032	1879	1791	1890	1898	2131	2193	2623	2690	2815	2911	2884	3127	3259	7999	4316	2487	2244	3736	2764	3603	3289	3623	3886	4048	4456
SOx	1A1b	21396	19638	19088	20048	18666	18786	21357	20969	15829	18161	9663	5560	1780	2171	1191	1582	897	915	133	368	310	390	399	222	289	265	232

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
PM2.5	2C1	1198	1251	1404	1185	799	678	798	677	625	254	109	196	167	141	161	168	116
TSP	2C1	2566	2680	3010	2539	1712	1452	1711	1450	1339	545	233	420	359	303	345	360	248
BC	2G	215	234	245	257	159	188	256	255	267	286	0	230	240	182	185	194	184

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A1a	3068738	3786481	4540378	4339882	4401141	4406118	4417003	4560127	4744157	4664523	4465829	4449232	3597126	3175459	2787988	1654753	1517512	1616292	1694141	1668215	1653902	1545767	1465425	1477514	1481261	1449302	1359799
Pb	1A3bi	719021991	645747314	624202825	275606716	269384533	265635450	249529062	249245941	252276538	2104	2063	2165	2248	2290	2356	2457	2533	2656	2667	2699	2384	2193	2165	1979	2231	2309	2498
Pb	1A3bii	59994186	57105422	35803825	12878984	11216470	11994998	11906929	13809393	17973676	281	259	283	315	321	328	369	439	473	506	496	433	430	412	354	392	429	438
Pb	1A3bvi	760154	680110	662281	667173	655091	676474	685176	745943	862068	925667	905801	977286	1074023	1141831	1223088	1359538	1498880	1565470	1613552	1605156	1453319	1388050	1348976	1247068	1412459	1543726	1561650
Pb	1A4bi	14331442	13935642	6993192	7900074	5099459	4451739	4890063	4627074	2387669	2335095	2618395	2793261	2424426	2950040	2750147	2748267	2757753	2176558	2154251	2528401	2800114	3244620	3291939	3224498	2574475	2649143	2776394
Pb	1B1b	255360	254980	256880	340480	377340	392540	374680	354160	367080	349220	356060	259160	164160	225340	252320	233320	349980	386460	379620	283480	386840	398620	389880	351120	350740	364800	338580
Pb	2A3	722101	515829	363861	433677	512946	555378	949423	745410	588087	579967	633691	647665	1882166	1829296	1069777	1103819	1154499	1318076	935086	670647	559800	904561	574697	582213	604542	690052	705771
Pb	2C1	14592139	9505060	7589274	8633353	9544460	9165242	9219416	8323084	8943622	8928847	9214491	9623258	10105898	9795630	9613408	1435369	1067016	806407	2842132	1063593	272431	744401	1035906	654172	641744	736240	750454
Pb	2C7a	1296000	864000	768000	744000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	720000	132000	132000	132000	60936	42264	52152	56832	48264	57768	71016	72096	63480
Pb	5C1biii	638210	638210	638210	638210	638210	638210	638210	638210	638210	638210	638210	638210	638210	638210	638210	585776	426699	237441	339451	235897	473283	358977	158653	102990	113751	25408	214556
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	839375506	755711208	698657195	320296567	310020872	305465931	290029658	290207474	295011458	20283969	20584277	21066740	21567204	21366770	19800333	9916604	9602845	8933907	10702910	8704559	8227443	9212162	8878767	8309245	7863744	8178407	8867179
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	839375506	755711208	698657195	320296567	310020872	305465931	290029658	290207474	295011458	20283969	20584277	21066740	21567204	21366770	19800333	9916604	9602845	8933907	10702910	8704559	8227443	9212162	8878767	8309245	7863744	8178407	8867179
Cd	1A4bi	513544	482995	387594	418153	382548	378028	373518	356771	333317	340501	626124	716748	416885	620943	566324	540153	578834	611577	512071	760404	867542	1006687	1093689	1121302	908683	969664	947328
Cd	1B2aiv	41550	39040	38036	39357	35919	38281	34614	35812	36572	35608	34685	34894	30778	32548	32492	35863	35266	36144	35532	32252	32584	33629	31181	30437	33186	33033	33849
Cd	2C1	59259	38600	30820	35060	38760	37220	37440	33800	36320	36260	37420	39080	41040	39780	39040	39260	41680	44820	41920	28020	33560	34660	30840	17660	23040	33500	25580
Cd	5C1biii	82350	82350	82350	82350	82350	82350	82350	82350	82350	82350	82350	82350	82350	82350	82350	75584	55058	30638	43800	30438	61069	46320	20471	13289	14678	3278	27685
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1711061	1671375	1577828	1632142	1570696	1546788	1521338	1495182	1463535	1418499	1675880	1760355	1411555	1482362	1316991	1179175	1241933	1252964	1229841	1368815	1473445	1600129	1643826	1650833	1469677	1521740	1517553
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	1711061	1671375	1577828	1632142	1570696	1546788	1521338	1495182	1463535	1418499	1675880	1760355	1411555	1482362	1316991	1179175	1241933	1252964	1229841	1368815	1473445	1600129	1643826	1650833	1469677	1521740	1517553
Hg	1A1a	543352	638842	749267	708217	715147	721833	731649	752514	781665	773345	739670	739963	618701	555123	480254	279977	264406	278350	277642	259968	260686	254729	246196	240232	235486	228558	216475
Hg	1A4ai	55887	116094	76200	82721	78274	46812	51720	45996	44607	47938	48932	48785	44527	46864	56720	52072	45458	35456	33317	35895	39412	47080	36623	35970	34266	39624	39826
Hg	1B2aiv	41550	39040	38036	39357	35919	38281	34614	35812	36572	35608	34685	34894	30778	32548	32492	35863	35266	36144	35532	32252	32584	33629	31181	30437	33186	33033	33849
Hg	2C1	296293	193000	154100	175300	193800	186100	187200	169000	181600	181300	187100	195400	205200	198900	195200	196300	208400	224100	209600	140100	167800	173300	154200	88300	115200	167500	127900
Hg	5C1biii	442630	442630	442630	442630	442630	442630	442630	442630	442630	442630	442630	442630	442630	442630	442630	406264	295936	164677	235425	163606	328244	248968	110034	71429	78892	17622	148805

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
DIOX	1B1b	2016	2013	2028	2688	2979	3099	2958	2796	2898	2757	2811	2046	1296	1779	1992	1842	2763	3051	2997	2238	3054	3147	3078	2772	2769	2880	2673
HCB	2C1	88888	57900	46230	52590	58140	55830	56160	50700	54480	54390	56130	58620	61560	59670	58560	58890	62520	67230	62880	42030	50340	51990	46260	26490	34560	50250	38370
HCB	5C1biii	1029371	1029371	1029371	1029371	1029371	1029371	1029371	1029371	1029371	1029371	1029371	1029371	1029371	1029371	1029371	944801	688223	382969	547501	380480	763359	578996	255893	166114	183470	40980	346057
PCB	2C1	7407325	4825000	3852500	4382500	4845000	4652500	4680000	4225000	4540000	4532500	4677500	4885000	5130000	4972500	4880000	4907500	5210000	5602500	5240000	3502500	4195000	4332500	3855000	2207500	2880000	4187500	3197500
PCB	2C6	388543	835098	757074	742684	548637	549312	627110	780459	1036789	985073	1067819	1216895	1225440	1148091	4712883	4169642	4246092	3907016	3923205	2721600	3124800	3668400	3438000	3530826	3354285	5551200	4784400