Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: HU Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NOx	1A4cii	13359	10722	10839	10757	10962	10606	11247	11195	12002	12010	11590	10546	11164	10378	9321	8376	9003	8311	8467	7458	8389	7640	5935	8020	7589	7555
NOx	3Da1	14320	5600	5920	6440	8880	7640	8120	8240	10522	10480	10320	11000	12120	11560	11720	10400	11560	12800	11772	10997	11257	12073	12518	13830	13070	14337
NMVOC	1A3dii	11099	1477	930	740	383	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	24	23	22	21	21	20	19	18	17	14	17	17
NMVOC	2D3a	12448	12449	12438	12420	12404	12385	12361	12336	12304	12266	12240	12210	12170	12140	12118	12092	12079	12054	12037	12017	11983	11918	11891	11852	11827	11797
NMVOC	2D3g	2396	2032	1879	1791	1890	1898	2131	2193	2623	2690	2815	2911	2884	3127	6627	7999	4316	2487	2244	3736	2764	3603	3289	3623	3886	4048
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	297138	261090	232153	223182	212491	205090	202385	193866	185722	183448	182221	186351	171899	176392	174087	157413	153112	148147	140615	144613	142584	144656	144865	146560	136853	138995
NMVOC	NTCOMPLIANCE	297138	261090	232153	223182	212491	205090	202385	193866	185722	183448	182221	186351	171899	176392	174087	157413	153112	148147	140615	144613	142584	144656	144865	146560	136853	138995
SOx	1A1b	21396	19638	19088	20048	18666	18786	21357	20969	15829	18161	9663	5560	1780	2171	1191	1582	897	915	133	368	310	390	399	222	289	265
NH3	2B10a	5236	2380	1147	986	1155	900	1442	1163	822	543	612	414	325	213	241	359	428	377	297	333	248	357	339	386	433	281
NH3	3B4gii	6027	4423	4109	2893	3250	3502	2465	2822	3024	2662	3634	3794	3499	3547	3478	3309	3040	3054	3280	3355	3475	3582	3301	2994	3226	3445
NH3	3Da1	22554	10211	8239	7792	9131	10070	9787	10356	10994	11799	11514	12273	13522	13367	14358	13294	14777	15061	10492	9633	9696	10816	10787	13458	12556	15102
NH3	3Da2a	24663	22835	19024	16786	14746	14950	15648	14867	15244	15834	15082	14358	14712	14884	13679	13157	12944	13178	12474	11764	11638	11327	11544	11752	12293	12576
NH3	5D1	2689	2696	2703	2708	2712	2715	2580	2443	2308	2171	2034	1714	1563	1314	1068	881	742	615	675	765	978	1165	947	790	474	192
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	139425	115446	96585	86484	80334	81466	82860	80028	82064	84254	84863	83152	83956	85109	81161	77104	77284	77583	70296	68190	69031	69913	69987	72904	72554	76345
NH3	NTCOMPLIANCE	139425	115446	96585	86484	80334	81466	82860	80028	82064	84254	84863	83152	83956	85109	81161	77104	77284	77583	70296	68190	69031	69913	69987	72904	72554	76345

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
PM2.5	2C1	1198	1251	1404	1185	799	678	798	677	625	254	109	196	167	141	161	168
PM10	2C1	1540	1608	1806	1524	1027	871	1026	870	804	327	140	252	215	182	207	216
PM10	3De	5779	6599	6629	6644	6694	6666	6604	6690	6638	6645	6591	6476	6563	6554	6594	6492
TSP	2C1	2566	2680	3010	2539	1712	1452	1711	1450	1339	545	233	420	359	303	345	360
TSP	3De	5779	6599	6629	6644	6694	6666	6604	6690	6638	6645	6591	6476	6563	6554	6594	6492
BC	2D3i	215	234	245	257	159	188	256	255	267	286	0	230	240	182	185	194

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pb	1A1a	3068738	3786481	4540378	4339882	4401141	4406118	4417003	4560127	4744157	4664523	4465829	4449232	3597126	3175459	2787988	1654753	1517512	1616292	1694141	1668215	1653902	1545767	1465425	1477514	1504585	1469582
Pb	1A3bvi	816651	728511	703243	705361	703437	695413	707122	765883	879810	955716	968668	1034412	1115964	1175838	1249937	1381394	1488910	1565162	1616818	1599053	1488438	1439175	1377759	1278989	1431598	1563182
Pb	1A4bi	14331585	13935770	6993317	7900200	5099570	4451860	4890189	4627194	2387801	2335220	2618522	2793370	2424537	2950139	2750222	2748343	2757839	2176612	2154308	2528436	2800173	3244666	3291974	3224535	2574501	2649169
Pb	1B1b	255360	254980	256880	340480	377340	392540	374680	354160	367080	349220	356060	259160	164160	225340	252320	233320	349980	386460	379620	283480	386840	398620	389880	351120	350740	364800
Pb	2A3	722101	515829	363861	433677	512946	555378	949423	745410	588087	579967	633691	647665	670560	617630	626112	658265	588793	653713	666100	589321	543353	596359	559876	578051	601256	688428
Pb	2C1	14592139	9505060	7589274	8633353	9544460	9165242	9219416	8323084	8943622	8928847	9214491	9623258	10105898	9795630	9613408	1435369	1067016	806407	2842132	1063593	272431	744401	1035906	654172	641744	736240
Pb	2C7a	5940000	3960000	3520000	3410000	3300000	3300000	3300000	3300000	3300000	3300000	3300000	3300000	3300000	3300000	3300000	605000	605000	605000	279290	193710	239030	260480	221210	264770	325490	330440
Pb	5C1biii	638210	638210	638210	638210	638210	638210	638210	638210	638210	638210	638210	638210	638210	638210	638210	585776	426699	237441	339451	235897	473283	432797	227978	140465	145447	158994
Cd	1A4ai	23181	65374	59878	48991	49693	42712	40941	39333	30853	29048	32433	27679	28818	33724	30527	24543	23383	21884	20619	19331	18082	18041	17772	17234	15434	17053
Cd	1A4bi	513554	483005	387603	418162	382556	378037	373527	356779	333326	340509	626133	716756	416893	620950	566329	540156	578846	611582	512079	760401	867546	1006690	1093692	1121305	908685	969666
Cd	2C1	59259	38600	30820	35060	38760	37220	37440	33800	36320	36260	37420	39080	41040	39780	39040	39260	41680	44820	41920	28020	33560	34660	30840	17660	23040	33500
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1736263	1693876	1599497	1653957	1592309	1567935	1542590	1517732	1488615	1445436	1702493	1788184	1441100	1512977	1352042	1222487	1287422	1300454	1277357	1413291	1512674	1647717	1689091	1689755	1516964	1583338
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	1736263	1693876	1599497	1653957	1592309	1567935	1542590	1517732	1488615	1445436	1702493	1788184	1441100	1512977	1352042	1222487	1287422	1300454	1277357	1413291	1512674	1647717	1689091	1689755	1516964	1583338
Hg	1A1a	543352	638842	749267	708217	715147	721833	731649	752514	781665	773345	739670	739963	618701	555123	480254	279977	264406	278350	277642	259968	260686	254729	246196	240232	235486	228558
Hg	1A4ai	57610	117835	77834	84480	79973	48525	53349	47515	45948	49124	50051	49905	45592	47897	57790	53363	46752	36600	34415	37056	40992	41252	33019	33854	30074	30976
Hg	1B2aiv	41550	39040	38036	39357	35919	38281	34614	35812	36572	35608	34685	34894	30778	32548	32492	35863	35266	36144	35532	32252	32584	33629	31181	30437	33186	33033
Hg	2C1	296293	193000	154100	175300	193800	186100	187200	169000	181600	181300	187100	195400	205200	198900	195200	196300	208400	224100	209600	140100	167800	173300	154200	88300	115200	167500
Hg	2K	103730	103740	103650	103500	103370	103210	103010	102800	102530	102220	102000	101750	101420	101170	100980	100770	100660	100450	100310	100140	99860	99320	99090	98770	98560	98300
Hg	5C1biii	442630	442630	442630	442630	442630	442630	442630	442630	442630	442630	442630	442630	442630	442630	442630	406264	295936	164677	235425	163606	328244	300166	158113	97419	100875	110270

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
DIOX	1B1b	2016	2013	2028	2688	2979	3099	2958	2796	2898	2757	2811	2046	1296	1779	1992	1842	2763	3051	2997	2238	3054	3147	3078	2772	2769	2880
HCB	2C1	88888	57900	46230	52590	58140	55830	56160	50700	54480	54390	56130	58620	61560	59670	58560	58890	62520	67230	62880	42030	50340	51990	46260	26490	34560	50250
HCB	5C1bii	92832	92832	92832	92832	92832	92832	92832	92832	92832	92832	92832	92832	92832	92832	92832	69556	121078	112487	109633	108427	129425	146466	152517	158152	162957	155560
PCB	2C1	17777580	11580000	9246000	10518000	11628000	11166000	11232000	10140000	10896000	10878000	11226000	11724000	12312000	11934000	11712000	11778000	12504000	13446000	12576000	8406000	10068000	10398000	9252000	5298000	6912000	10050000