Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: HU Submission year: 2015

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2013
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2013
PMs: 2000 - 2013

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
NOx	1A2gviii	13827	13095	9603	8503	8518	7860	8244	5778	4518	4130	2052	1915	1865	1633	1404	1518	1406	1354	1324	1096	1132	1338	1040	1846
NOx	1A4cii	13854	10827	10709	10425	10425	9840	10187	9903	10376	10187	9651	8656	9216	8726	7990	7324	8130	7815	8340	7709	9076	8761	7254	10443
NOx	3Da1	14272	5581	5900	6419	8850	7615	8093	8213	10486	10445	10286	10963	12080	11521	11681	10365	11521	12757	11733	10961	11220	12033	12476	13784
NMVOC	1A3dii	11099	1477	930	740	383	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	24	23	22	21	21	20	19	18	17	14
NMVOC	2D3a	12448	12449	12438	12420	12404	12385	12361	12336	12304	12266	12240	12210	12170	12140	12118	12092	12079	12054	12037	12017	11983	11918	11891	11852
NMVOC	2D3g	1709	1477	1293	1246	1318	1381	1508	1562	1630	1759	1878	2049	2033	2278	5748	7073	3926	2030	1825	3402	2432	3255	3034	3241
NMVOC	3De	3937	3876	3478	3341	3645	3722	3666	3715	3597	3231	3186	3638	3654	3662	3690	3675	3641	3688	3659	3663	3633	3570	3618	3635
NH3	3B4gii	8839	6487	6026	4244	4767	5137	3615	4140	4435	3905	5329	5564	5132	5202	5101	4853	4459	4479	4810	4920	5096	5212	4838	4568
NH3	3Da1	34980	15786	12924	12404	14821	16363	15784	16973	17710	18382	17979	19164	21115	20818	23553	20892	23222	23964	17747	15865	16130	17575	18099	22589
NH3	3Da2a	24131	22372	18657	16510	14532	14777	15519	14757	15147	15752	15013	14280	14626	14794	13585	13067	12839	13066	12390	11698	11571	11275	11435	11572
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	156550	124770	104367	94081	89291	90880	92063	89973	92308	94178	94025	92555	95842	95847	93691	88580	89695	90038	81154	76707	77361	77473	76862	81243
NH3	NTCOMPLIANCE	156550	124770	104367	94081	89291	90880	92063	89973	92308	94178	94025	92555	95842	95847	93691	88580	89695	90038	81154	76707	77361	77473	76862	81243

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
PM10	3De	5779	6599	6629	6644	6694	6666	6604	6690	6638	6645	6591	6476	6563	6594
TSP	3De	105071	119985	120522	120792	121716	121203	120074	121638	120691	120820	119832	117745	119331	119891
BC	2D3i	215	234	245	257	159	188	256	255	267	286	0	230	240	182

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Pb	1A1a	3068726	3786474	4540377	4339876	4401131	4406104	4416910	4560123	4744137	4664519	4465829	4449005	3597117	3175466	2787988	1654753	1517512	1616292	1694141	1668215	1654491	1545827	1464951	1476492
Pb	1A3bi	16614476	12211652	5201008	4686202	3893831	3248570	2500193	2247499	2058873	965493	1048694	1265751	843054		930758
Pb	1A3bvi																491664	536801	523259	1863552	1854346	1705060	1615381	1427178	1288794
Pb	1A4ai	660107	1694158	1112211	1081373	921135	322548	286502	225296	181024	197691	192776	129450	117137	123873	97544	64408	97823	107506	105198	147429	150981	156792	144349	154705
Pb	1A4bi	14331575	13935761	6993305	7900192	5099562	4451857	4890188	4627194	2387800	2335220	1982852	2022954	2262562	2368530	2169280	2171251	2188099	1539113	1649046	1634640	1772580	2007155	1869786	1757617
Pb	1B1b	255360	254980	256880	340480	377340	392540	374680	354160	367080	349220	356060	259160	164160	225340	252320	233320	349980	386460	379620	283480	386840	398620	389880	351120
Pb	2A3	424210	326072	231583	268976	311766	322404	942831	739432	579109	416497	487619	481892	493613	440306	441459	471937	451917	474858	453666	415283	352833	423903	377448	371587
Pb	2C1	14592139	9505060	7589274	8633353	9544460	9165242	9219416	8323084	8943622	8928847	9214491	9623258	10105898	9795630	9613408	1435369	1067016	806407	2842132	1063593	272431	744401	1035906	654172
Pb	2C7a	5940000	3960000	3520000	3410000	3300000	3300000	3300000	3300000	3300000	3300000	3300000	3300000	3300000	3300000	3300000	605000	605000	605000	279290	193710	239030	260480	221210	264770
Pb	5C1biii	620000	620000	620000	620000	620000	620000	620000	620000	620000	620000	620000	620000	620000	620000	638210	585776	426699	237441	339451	235897	473283	432797	227978	140465
Cd	1A3bi	2068156	1762629	1513183	1552944	1529313	1409719	1279116	1222850	1156081	1122696	1143538	1144077	1051001		1146782	92570	97040	110530	24436	24373	21947	18027	17606	16056
Cd	1A3biii														1125345		124986	138062	127359	13978	13879	12999	11658	9614	9214
Cd	2A3	33025	23056	22920	26666	30023	31384	47636	39139	32643	31838	34206	34348	35134	32578	31373	35774	33442	35256	35659	32681	30873	33536	31687	33809
Cd	2C1	59259	38600	30820	35060	38760	37220	37440	33800	36320	36260	37420	39080	41040	39780	39040	39260	41680	44820	41920	28020	33560	34660	30840	17660
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	3771998	3437925	3096484	3177578	3088658	2944879	2801490	2721202	2624285	2538503	2511652	2530843	2381954	2312705	2170753	1172193	1272879	1259716	1048605	1023526	1058905	1092549	1041094	995376
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	3771998	3437925	3096484	3177578	3088658	2944879	2801490	2721202	2624285	2538503	2511652	2530843	2381954	2312705	2170753	1172193	1272879	1259716	1048605	1023526	1058905	1092549	1041094	995376
Hg	1A1a	543329	638817	749249	708201	715139	721824	731617	752513	781658	773344	739670	739877	618699	555109	480254	279977	264406	278350	277642	259968	259355	254467	246160	240156
Hg	1A4ai	51489	113623	73798	80611	75063	43414	49008	43705	43325	47035	48098	47717	43597	46085	55868	51558	45566	36164	33739	37355	41907	41996	33220	35408
Hg	2C1	296293	193000	154100	175300	193800	186100	187200	169000	181600	181300	187100	195400	205200	198900	195200	196300	208400	224100	209600	140100	167800	173300	154200	88300
Hg	5C1biii	430000	430000	430000	430000	430000	430000	430000	430000	430000	430000	430000	430000	430000	430000	442630	406264	295936	164677	235425	163606	328244	300166	158113	97419

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
DIOX	1B1b	2016	2013	2028	2688	2979	3099	2958	2796	2898	2757	2811	2046	1296	1779	1992	1842	2763	3051	2997	2238	3054	3147	3078	2772
HCB	2C1	88888	57900	46230	52590	58140	55830	56160	50700	54480	54390	56130	58620	61560	59670	58560	58890	62520	67230	62880	42030	50340	51990	46260	26490
HCB	5C1bii	120000	120000	120000	120000	120000	120000	120000	120000	120000	120000	120000	120000	120000	120000	94936	27899	32927	46269	47528	52748	52101	64923	67528	73750
PCB	2C1	17777580	11580000	9246000	10518000	11628000	11166000	11232000	10140000	10896000	10878000	11226000	11724000	12312000	11934000	11712000	11778000	12504000	13446000	12576000	8406000	10068000	10398000	9252000	5298000