Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

Recalculations

KCA for CLRTAP

KCA for NECD

Inv. comparison

Time series

Trend graphs

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TIME SERIES

Party: HU      Submission year: 2014

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2012
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2012
PMs: 2000 - 2012

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
NOx	1A4cii	8410	8410	8410	8410	8410	8410	8410	8410	8410	8410	8410	7674	8235	8270	7534	6868	7674	7359	7885	7254	8586	8305	7219
NOx	4D1a	14272	5581	5900	6419	8850	7615	8093	8213	10486	10445	10286	10963	12080	11521	11681	10365	11521	12757	11733	10961	11220	12033	12476
NMVOC	1A3dii	11099	1477	930	729	369	3	3	6	3	3	3	3	6	25	6	3	3	3	3	3	3	1	17
NMVOC	3C	1454	1280	1146	1123	1195	1261	1379	1437	1508	1627	1737	1895	1884	2148	5626	6978	3821	1958	1766	3334	2379	3187	2996
NMVOC	3D2	10373	10374	10365	10350	10337	10321	10301	10280	10253	10222	10200	10175	10142	10117	10098	10077	10066	10045	10031	10014	9986	9932	9909
NH3	4B9b	8839	6487	6026	4244	4767	5137	3615	4140	4435	3905	5329	5564	5132	5202	5101	4853	4459	4479	4810	4920	5096	5212	4838
NH3	4D1a	21534	9770	7552	6681	7096	7496	7402	7645	9125	9213	10641	11342	11353	11585	12750	11981	13318	13508	7973	7425	7611	9174	9058
NH3	GRIDTOTAL	146240	121881	101560	90227	83171	82426	83876	80845	83333	84623	85909	83634	84904	85287	81796	78394	78025	77582	69845	66525	66974	67475	65925
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	146240	121881	101560	90227	83171	82426	83876	80845	83333	84623	85909	83634	84904	85287	81796	78394	78025	77582	69845	66525	66974	67475	65925

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
PM10	4D2a	5779	6599	6629	6644	6694	6666	6604	6690	6638	6645	6591	6476	6563
TSP	4D2a	105071	119985	120522	120792	121716	121203	120074	121638	120691	120820	115054	119832	119331

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Pb	1A1a	3462743	4163816	4932547	4716041	4760538	4782101	4802740	4960458	5155105	5072599	4842243	4817979	3947934	3538153	3113951	525579	447698	502059	626526	703259	701553	548377	481014
Pb	1A2fi	1624491	1339488	878645	736108	714883	649331	613057	484074	428347	433385	358809	353965	404866	385134	335979	331250	349373	357117	345938	288221	229403	187810	195219
Pb	1A3bi	16614476	12211652	5201008	4686202	3893831	3248570	2500193	2247499	2058873	965493	1048694	1265751	843054		930758
Pb	1A3bvi																491664	536801	523259	1863552	1854346	1705060	1615381	1427178
Pb	1A4ai	926180	1856443	1263017	1227273	1138215	565401	524722	404220	303101	319330	317178	255263	226771	231183	212180	176523	192431	178526	169815	213619	224164	227830	208697
Pb	1A4bi	12585627	12189570	6868814	7410332	5195787	4467343	4689200	4422420	2667247	2636029	2333106	2397098	2568961	2646521	2362231	2348237	2394927	1850925	1872117	1947627	2138313	2348972	2219418
Pb	1B1b	806400	805200	811200	1075200	1191600	1239600	1183200	1118400	1159200	1102800	1124400	818400	518400	711600	796800	736800	1105200	1220400	1198800	895200	1221600	1258800	1231200
Pb	2A7d	424210	326072	231583	268976	311766	322404	942831	739432	579109	416497	487619	481892	493613	440306	441459	471937	451917	474858	453666	415283	352833	423903	377448
Pb	2C1	14592139	9505060	7589274	8633353	9544460	9165242	9219416	8323084	8943622	8928847	9214491	9623258	10105898	9795630	9613408	1435369	1067016	806407	2842132	1063593	272431	744401	1035906
Pb	2C5a	5940000	3960000	3520000	3410000	3300000	3300000	3300000	3300000	3300000	3300000	3300000	3300000	3300000	3300000	3300000	605000	605000	605000	279290	193710	239030	260480	221210
Cd	1A1a	368857	410679	455857	452450	444775	450478	450035	478853	499260	487613	452673	454675	395707	390113	350237	125083	122852	132928	139035	129292	132166	110341	101101
Cd	1A3bi	2068156	1762629	1513183	1552944	1529313	1409719	1279116	1222850	1156081	1122696	1143538	1144077	1051001		1146782	92570	97040	110530	24436	24373	21947	18027	17606
Cd	1A3biii														1125345		124986	138062	127359	13978	13879	12999	11658	9614
Cd	1A4ai	27323	47313	34631	40590	42928	38547	44604	42126	41591	43476	45178	47071	43794	46689	56814	53127	47905	39284	37279	43064	46448	46929	39593
Cd	1B1b	20160	20130	20280	26880	29790	30990	29580	27960	28980	27570	28110	20460	12960	17790	19920	18420	27630	30510	29970	22380	30540	31470	30780
Cd	2A7d	33025	23056	22920	26666	30023	31384	47636	39139	32643	31838	34206	34348	35134	32578	31373	35774	33442	35256	35659	32681	30873	33536	31687
Cd	2C1	59259	38600	30820	35060	38760	37220	37440	33800	36320	36260	37420	39080	41040	39780	39040	39260	41680	44820	41920	28020	33560	34660	30840
Cd	GRIDTOTAL	3166658	2829801	2522007	2561529	2509501	2377591	2270172	2202973	2121910	2077969	2053659	2059848	1905902	1970286	1939741	796044	818819	805629	550359	510214	536744	515193	470394
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	3166658	2829801	2522007	2561529	2509501	2377591	2270172	2202973	2121910	2077969	2053659	2059848	1905902	1970286	1939741	796044	818819	805629	550359	510214	536744	515193	470394
Hg	1A1a	619050	710861	824719	780577	784035	793892	805321	828248	859378	850338	810780	808978	684022	621851	539570	54735	51277	55491	63490	66846	67599	54330	48846
Hg	1B1b	13440	13420	13520	17920	19860	20660	19720	18640	19320	18380	18740	13640	8640	11860	13280	12280	18420	20340	19980	14920	20360	20980	20520
Hg	2C1	296293	193000	154100	175300	193800	186100	187200	169000	181600	181300	187100	195400	205200	198900	195200	196300	208400	224100	209600	140100	167800	173300	154200
Hg	6Ca	80000	80000	80000	80000	80000	80000	80000	80000	80000	80000	80000	80000	80000	80000	85635	79139	57245	33498	45521	31350	62739	56759	55457
Hg	GRIDTOTAL	2588222	2542512	2292443	2267879	2210594	1867131	1808612	1752641	1695845	1685856	1635549	1627541	1496576	1436390	1314141	743132	748036	687465	725383	619658	631834	598354	602551
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	2588222	2542512	2292443	2267879	2210594	1867131	1808612	1752641	1695845	1685856	1635549	1627541	1496576	1436390	1314141	743132	748036	687465	725383	619658	631834	598354	602551

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
HCB	1A1a	305746	510308	681302	633908	677302	661138	662378	680094	713500	704898	697347	706966	517494	396417	350614	723031	868229	870950	933179	978611	982882	936528	889392
HCB	2C1	88888	57900	46230	52590	58140	55830	56160	50700	54480	54390	56130	58620	61560	59670	58560	58890	62520	67230	62880	42030	50340	51990	46260
HCB	6Ca	1000000	1000000	1000000	1000000	1000000	1000000	1000000	1000000	1000000	1000000	1000000	1000000	1000000	1000000	1070437	989235	715561	418730	569012	391876	784236	709491	693210
HCB	6Cb	100000	100000	100000	100000	100000	100000	100000	100000	100000	100000	100000	100000	100000	100000	99575	74826	125251	138142	118829	131968	155727	170528	178691