Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

Recalculations

KCA for CLRTAP

KCA for NECD

Inv. comparison

Time series

Trend graphs

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TIME SERIES

Party: HU      Submission year: 2013

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2011
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2011
PMs: 2000 - 2011

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	238000	203100	183300	184000	187400	190070	195810	199500	202620	200650	185450	184530	185282	179657	180054	203073	207757	189879	183403	166894	162454	129152
NMVOC	3C													160								331	3231
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	124000	93000	84000	77000	76000	77000	78000	76000	73530	71090	70810	66300	64851	66767	74090	80120	80977	70594	68797	67940	65396	64786
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	997000	913400	835800	796100	774290	761290	726870	733360	736930	721620	633040	591830	563761	599922	559225	586999	568812	507269	511720	312771	479852	396110

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
PM2.5	1A4ai			1051	1123	1016	22	22	21	44	2005	894	833
PM2.5	2A1					10	607	999	639	639	506	42	55
PM10	1A4ai			1771	1892	1711	38	37	36	75	3375	905	844
TSP	1A4ai			3800	4060	3721	100	122	104	142	6120	945	882
TSP	2A5			10000	10000							2	20

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
Pb	1A1a													785742	773618	619313	467153	1254227	1449286	1765170	2009865	1979145	1784549
Pb	1A1c													5059253	5343901	6078627		7714444	7414214	7864580	6802249	24179	25107
Pb	1A2b													1500000	1500000	1500000	275000	275000	275000	127000	88050
Pb	1A2fi															3264	5219	2417058	2333400	2636304	2417214	210794	195094
Pb	1A3bi													843054		930758	930758	1618766	1594902	1639977	1598258	851000
Pb	1A4ai													499479	526287	470421	22237	22001	25085	29645	1111592	239901	231036
Pb	1A4bi													4137467	4802104	4300680	4919608	4682718	2069818	2800252	3848422	2120717	2370863
Pb	1B1b																	202634	223740	219560	165220	1221600	1258800
Pb	6Cb													2577000	1923000	1600000	3110000	84594				97661	110843
Cd	1A1a													329214	285058	160765	101374	375758	431022	513899	618423	298719	287008
Cd	1A1c													478965	488255	499666		468093	449320	477402	412510	255	446
Cd	1A2a													446400	444075	442770	1000088	217844	225571	228404	151502
Cd	1A3bi													1051001		1146782					1584419	28000	18027
Cd	1A4ai													30481	31856	28882	1590	3039	4199	2877	66694	47492	47355
Cd	1A4bi													248243	288121	258036	295172	554212	247577	300110	484827	127503	128643
Cd	GRIDTOTAL														2863102	2722213	1533724	1743419	1483934	1644230	3424551
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	5513505	4699000	4034000	4140000	4077000	3758176	3410000	3260000	3082000	2993000	3048563	3050000	2801880	2863102	2722213	1533724	1743419	1483934	1644230	3424551	707532	690961
Cd	SNAPTOTAL															2722213	1533724	1743419	1483934
Hg	1A1a													848630	898642	836896	661391	199405	232128	240592	245796	316367	341652
Hg	1A1c													636515	671062	753217		970094	927637	990655	853407	240	285
Hg	1A2a													113564	113285	114026	934576	122797	129925	143068	62501
Hg	1A2fi															14	22	12085	11667	13182	12086	65753	138514
Hg	1A4ai													71414	75113	71602	17458	1555	1309	2864	133392	21607	21689
Hg	1A4bi													518396	601871	540945	616042	501205	220909	306677	405384	78839	81918
Hg	1A4ci													51252	50178	31823	31555	80381	77082	78914	86477	2820	2848
Hg	2A1													965250	982575	920975	927134	1024142	976800	974704	772588
Hg	6Ca																		190834			62504	993
Hg	6Cb													773100	576900	480000	933000	194971	23264	22755	16302	7043	4775
Hg	6Cc																			196632	199871	1749
Hg	GRIDTOTAL														3991443	3776861	4149108	3163260	2829085	15716399	2816137
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	6263199	5826000	4991000	5000000	4724000	4862519	4667000	4474000	4278000	4247000	4362091	4355000	3995206	3991443	3776861	4149108	3163260	2829085	3006499	2816137	781358	821954