Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: HR Submission year: 2022

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2020
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2020
PMs: 2000 - 2020

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
NOx	11B	380	380	96	820	372	63	255	402	766	48	1403	350	180	827	36	63	298	1263	345	279	194	328	567	200	19	606	673	4854	151	218	2399
NOx	1A3biii	10307	6124	6972	8697	9250	7674	9373	10230	9305	10412	8916	8737	11182	11421	11942	10300	11075	10569	9270	9423	10021	9297	6971	10143	8962	8707	8505	10224	8875	8943	7120
NOx	1A3di(i)	2764	1816	1975	2925	3534	2598	2931	1882	2060	1662	1454	2273	1863	1756	1865	2015	1557	1940	1721	554	499	1934	316	316	395	134	331	504	1629	1943	1272
NOx	1A3dii	2971	2390	3376	2861	1409	2174	3439	2721	2074	1983	1917	2043	2483	2456	1928	2082	2138	2208	2662	2899	2302	2306	2182	2316	2326	2192	2277	2396	2533	2614	2127
NOx	1A4cii	7777	6210	2583	1760	5257	4192	4539	4096	6217	6538	8189	8824	7988	7596	7000	6679	6515	6156	6069	5467	4979	4668	4067	3709	3467	3099	2818	2568	2397	2198	2089
NOx	3Da1	2793	2827	3245	2375	2520	2429	2558	3207	2476	2746	3068	3337	3132	2954	3057	3154	3221	3392	4424	2361	2843	3250	2779	2026	1916	2273	1880	2559	2585	2536	2573
NMVOC	1B2av	3604	1865	2348	2352	2642	2953	3039	3127	3256	3608	3441	3390	3363	3331	3350	3169	3136	3392	3013	3239	2908	2679	2402	2360	2088	2275	2254	2194	2322	1981	1722
NMVOC	2D3a	11076	7207	4719	4554	5237	4666	4799	4410	4076	3675	3635	3834	4086	3543	3928	3861	3402	3052	3467	2792	2819	2664	2336	1996	1828	2095	2118	3349	4386	7916	8939
SOx	11B	76	76	19	164	74	13	51	80	153	10	281	70	36	165	7	13	60	253	69	56	39	66	113	40	4	121	135	971	30	44	480
SOx	1A1a	76631	47812	59471	57491	47482	40342	28972	42813	57199	57199	22225	23371	19177	22665	14449	20495	18438	25571	23046	25832	8968	10399	7797	6206	3793	5030	3309	1738	370	256	515
SOx	1A3bi	1106	873	2024	1184	1091	1201	2025	1718	1679	1856	2380	2092	1900	2713	2578	2169	2300	1820	1664	1392	1043	291	15	15	17	19	20	23	21	0	0
SOx	1A3biii	2497	1370	1611	2509	1835	1179	2325	1678	1674	1924	1782	1217	1659	1961	1678	1174	1166	784	697	604	543	142	3	6	6	6	6	8	8	0	0
SOx	2B10a	710	500	600	469	658	661	640	580	513	551	758	698	813	614	677	681	855	788	716	210			5	4	9	56	200	174	116	179	242
NH3	11B	76	76	19	164	74	13	51	80	153	10	281	70	36	165	7	13	60	253	69	56	39	66	113	40	4	121	135	971	30	44	480
NH3	3B1b	1002	1528	664	688	563	515	491	506	531	552	492	546	528	573	757	717	748	710	731	684	676	744	771	820	927	911	945	986	808	855	1003
NH3	3Da2a	10662	10331	8207	8056	7754	7299	6916	6748	6527	6678	6481	6361	6367	6466	6428	6109	6137	5864	5546	5671	5416	5178	5091	4911	4942	4835	4827	4871	4699	4798	4739
CO	2B10a	30624	18783	13479	17123	21468	27185	26735	24214	24088	20627	30004	24018	26794	28450	17779	17240	39110	34869	9037	52	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
PM10	3Dc	1823	1838	1843	1865	1835	1889	1919	1875	2011	2027	2081	2069	2076	2447	2354	2399	2412	2335	2318	2347	2350
TSP	3Dc	1823	1838	1843	1865	1835	1889	1919	1875	2011	2027	2081	2069	2076	2447	2354	2399	2412	2335	2318	2347	2350

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Pb	1A1a	500595	439526	586425	452983	378970	424742	420580	515079	645408	674167	400176	453475	493352	652543	426276	499926	477932	508475	491443	439512	287517	333831	275089	266963	252953	276361	300600	226668	278322	285617	309492
Pb	1A3aii(i)	328604	150608	27385	410738	109539	82157	11	54774	27393	328595	27391	54773	27391	328593	301215	301215	301213	301214	273835	273834	164303	164303	136920	136919	136920	109538	136920	136920	136921	136921	109533
Pb	1A3bi	413234387	295120810	237950726	236833212	258415559	241864031	192274081	173729940	165998299	161713059	131009034	99718411	54116413	17883487	11097609	6215178	3605956	3723571	3549551	3543551	3339578	3279877	3030103	2942375	2738104	2776592	2900943	2813595	2640862	1092	1108
Pb	1A3bii	18144372	14308792	11321176	7538417	10320545	7807153	6185187	5550975	5791387	4462575	4285772	1890728	1390034	511021	348065	243332	168800	165683	160542	152380	141810	134132	105157	94648	82814	84879	88150	110308	104154	92	95
Pb	1A3bvi	529424	398614	390602	424953	453253	462008	505514	570274	590543	636770	639527	569635	637656	694851	720239	747157	799397	854432	827810	836486	805564	786224	709218	767214	738719	780167	838432	935978	865363	928750	891104
Pb	1A4bi	1785183	1687254	1282927	1331241	1181274	1236142	1382287	1266375	1291322	1279930	1133345	1211290	1172332	1360400	1309428	1410132	1278934	1214329	1222836	1266076	1378232	1332992	1328190	1325783	1162260	1327016	1289383	1250532	1187539	1152171	1165334
Pb	1B2aiv	410044	286375	223376	302640	276703	289903	230771	230220	294605	340675	451828	398147	408945	406199	439616	452865	372858	446516	346375	431107	337216	271701	294895	244946	204224	216736	215716	243019	187322	131504	134058
Pb	2A3	468333	429991	244637	228502	275771	283577	261394	216449	252158	231647	236395	255580	269516	317854	358112	387277	388744	393518	410973	402579	393669	418130	386359	427690	470155	404262	470478	473172	479671	483360	429236
Pb	2C1	76393384	28560824	265054	192613	164723	117962	118960	181727	268330	197280	181067	146039	85251	106449	223873	191464	209342	198254	361050	120286	268910	249358	2696	288624	380810	315987		10026	353015	179727	117709
Pb	2G	555856	555856	555856	555856	555856	951776	1401008	1384544	938448	762832	554288	1300656	6500928	9005808	4861584	2174032	1636992	1153264	802816	357504	141904	122304	8542	1140554	812224	784000	1001952	1057616	1277136	1354752	1835344
Cd	1A2c	1887	1560	82	1243	1415	1275	379	327	18317	17352	49316	45090	36666	45339	53303	67346	92194	10394	13847	15505	2887	247	1197	1887	3209	278	2	2	1	1	4
Cd	2A3	35814	32882	18708	17474	21088	21685	19989	16552	19283	17714	18077	19544	20610	24306	27385	29615	29727	30093	31427	30785	30104	31975	29545	32706	35953	30914	35978	36184	36681	36963	32824
Cd	2C1	236756	99279	20389	14816	12671	9074	9151	13979	20641	15175	13928	11234	6558	8188	17221	14728	16103	15250	27773	9253	20685	19181	207	22202	29293	24307		771	27155	13825	9055
Cd	2G	66341	61702	68161	61913	27272	65760	63811	63013	66383	76171	74114	97895	111362	119979	86160	83128	80969	80990	84703	61884	71974	63222	60194	53982	46769	45528	45966	51120	67439	66404	62349
Cd	3F	70353	86043	48885	60236	60714	62489	67841	78548	71377	115121	64297	93500	105535	69024	104204	118979	104374	68388	105108	78556	74403	52039	31180	33762	24582	10353	795	514	599	307	150
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1201970	1113004	875233	917750	812685	885610	946303	911823	950911	989218	924473	1009657	1004103	1081463	1095742	1155282	1101473	979205	1007445	985556	1009913	942668	904682	905063	812100	862864	810766	810702	819923	775956	770974
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1201970	1113004	875233	917750	812685	885610	946303	911823	950911	989218	924473	1009657	1004103	1081463	1095742	1155282	1101473	979205	1007445	985556	1009913	942668	904682	905063	812100	862864	810766	810702	819923	775956	770974
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	1201970	1113004	875233	917750	812685	885610	946303	911823	950911	989218	924473	1009657	1004103	1081463	1095742	1155282	1101473	979205	1007445	985556	1009913	942668	904682	905063	812100	862864	810766	810702	819923	775956	770974
Hg	1A1a	54801	38202	51460	43349	11880	22323	15079	50148	50045	42954	118309	119273	164496	184823	174454	185601	170430	183493	188890	135078	183289	196224	176175	190560	186661	177886	198611	110858	123303	95627	108231
Hg	3F	11193	13689	7777	9583	9659	9941	10793	12496	11355	18315	10229	14875	16790	10981	16578	18928	16605	10880	16722	12498	11837	8279	4961	5371	3911	1647	126	82	95	49	24
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1136538	1099411	1117972	322162	296347	292748	284010	331632	354337	388391	484276	496517	543147	565471	576830	599260	571401	598369	578616	510452	532839	509540	478920	492797	479332	467496	475553	411871	412569	366030	373917
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1136538	1099411	1117972	322162	296347	292748	284010	331632	354337	388391	484276	496517	543147	565471	576830	599260	571401	598369	578616	510452	532839	509540	478920	492797	479332	467496	475553	411871	412569	366030	373917
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	1136538	1099411	1117972	322162	296347	292748	284010	331632	354337	388391	484276	496517	543147	565471	576830	599260	571401	598369	578616	510452	532839	509540	478920	492797	479332	467496	475553	411871	412569	366030	373917

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
DIOX	5E	2745	1906	3439	1895	2372	2876	2897	2696	2817	2938	2921	2738	2576	2939	2456	2533	2522	2418	2351	2198	2082	2285	2201	2017	1352	1494	1510	1638	1387	1587	1459