Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: HR Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NOx	11B	380	380	96	820	372	63	255	402	766	48	1403	350	180	827	36	63	298	1263	345	279	194	328	567	200	19	606	673	4854	151	218
NOx	1A3ai(ii)	1544	304	243	605	871	819	871	790	853	820	698	699	663	657	729	895	910	946	1107	1070	1014	1091	1145	1278	1270	1201	1261	1507	1906	2073
NOx	1A3biii	10239	6073	6915	8642	9202	7620	9300	10097	9149	10222	8711	8552	10844	11036	11496	9835	10608	10097	8827	8923	9524	8824	7514	10365	9184	8753	8197	9782	8969	9798
NOx	1A3di(i)	2764	1816	1975	2925	3534	2598	2931	1882	2060	1662	1454	2273	1863	1756	1865	2015	1557	1940	1721	554	499	1934	316	316	395	134	331	504	1629	1943
NOx	1A3dii	3205	2527	3631	3033	1524	2319	3626	2877	2251	2179	2131	2283	2772	2779	2284	2496	2598	2700	3283	3643	2890	2922	2780	3022	3297	3234	3281	3478	3705	3854
NOx	1A4cii	7777	6210	2583	1760	5257	4192	4539	4096	6217	6538	8189	8824	7988	7596	7000	6679	6515	6156	6069	5467	4979	4668	4067	3709	3467	3099	2818	2568	2397	2198
NOx	3Da1	2793	2827	3245	2375	2520	2429	2558	3207	2476	2746	3068	3337	3132	2954	3057	3154	3221	3392	4424	2361	2843	3250	2779	2026	1916	2273	1880	2559	2585	2536
NMVOC	1B2av	3604	1865	2348	2352	2642	2953	3039	3127	3256	3608	3441	3390	3363	3331	3350	3169	3136	3392	3013	3239	2908	2679	2402	2360	2088	2275	2254	2194	2322	1981
SOx	11B	76	76	19	164	74	13	51	80	153	10	281	70	36	165	7	13	60	253	69	56	39	66	113	40	4	121	135	971	30	44
SOx	1A1a	76631	47812	59471	57491	47482	40342	28972	42813	57199	57199	22225	23371	19177	22665	14449	20495	18438	25571	23046	25832	8968	10399	7797	6206	3793	5030	3309	1738	370	519
SOx	1A3bi	1092	860	1992	1174	1082	1192	2008	1697	1654	1828	2336	2059	1856	2641	2504	2087	2221	1752	1598	1323	997	277	14	15	17	19	20	22	19	0
SOx	1A3biii	2480	1358	1598	2494	1826	1171	2307	1656	1646	1889	1741	1191	1609	1895	1616	1121	1117	747	663	569	515	135	3	6	6	6	6	8	7	0
NH3	3Da2a	15481	15154	11804	11909	11677	10816	10488	10345	10149	10871	10333	10319	10484	10849	11542	10452	11197	10536	9563	10068	9790	9446	9248	8923	9063	9257	9289	9312	8792	8895
CO	2B10a	30624	18783	13479	17123	21468	27185	26735	24214	24088	20627	30004	24018	26794	28450	17779	17240	39110	34869	9037	52	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
PM10	3Dc	1823	1838	1843	1865	1835	1889	1919	1875	2011	2027	2081	2069	2076	2447	2354	2399	2412	2335	2318	2347
TSP	3Dc	1823	1838	1843	1865	1835	1889	1919	1875	2011	2027	2081	2069	2076	2447	2354	2399	2412	2335	2318	2347

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A1a	500595	439526	586425	452983	378970	424742	420580	515079	645408	674167	400176	453475	493352	652543	426276	499926	477932	508475	491443	439512	287517	333831	275089	266963	252953	276361	300600	226668	278322	298727
Pb	1A3aii(i)	328604	150608	27385	410738	109539	82157	11	54774	27393	328595	27391	54773	27391	328593	301215	301215	301213	301214	273835	273834	164303	164303	136920	136919	136920	109538	136920	136920	136921	136921
Pb	1A3bi	406295137	289673348	233606802	233936116	254428424	238787253	189842191	171534803	163661958	159890362	129250175	98913734	53537690	17688183	10976593	6145405	3564667	3683758	3509601	3502776	3306100	3247406	2847770	2974850	2774406	2813838	2861159	2770624	2475647	1014
Pb	1A3bii	17832107	14038821	11110506	7443128	10157083	7704712	6104945	5475205	5700700	4404469	4215969	1868255	1368793	502214	341147	236817	164013	160373	155214	145846	136686	129131	94484	91539	80736	83585	85806	106721	93629	82
Pb	1A3bvi	521990	392341	384871	420647	448133	456854	499856	562094	580248	626152	626073	559214	621602	675422	697937	720231	771547	822985	795036	801099	773074	753647	723000	773105	749545	788407	810890	899132	868721	964896
Pb	1A4bi	1785183	1687254	1282927	1331241	1181274	1236142	1382287	1266375	1291322	1279930	1133345	1211290	1172332	1360400	1309428	1410132	1278934	1214329	1222836	1266076	1378232	1332992	1328190	1325783	1162260	1327016	1289383	1250532	1187539	1152171
Pb	1B2aiv	410044	286375	223376	302640	276703	289903	230771	230220	294605	340675	451828	398147	408945	406199	439616	452865	372858	446516	346375	431107	337216	271701	294895	244946	204224	216736	215716	243019	187322	131504
Pb	2A3	468333	429991	244637	228502	275771	283577	261394	216449	252158	231647	236395	255580	269516	317854	358112	387277	388744	393518	410973	402579	393669	418130	386359	427690	470155	404262	470478	473172	479671	483360
Pb	2C1	76393384	28560824	265054	192613	164723	117962	118960	181727	268330	197280	181067	146039	85251	106449	223873	191464	209342	198254	361050	120286	268910	249358	2696	288624	380810	315987		10026	353015	179727
Pb	2G	555856	555856	555856	555856	555856	951776	1401008	1384544	938448	762832	554288	1300656	6500928	9005808	4861584	2174032	1636992	1153264	802816	357504	141904	122304	8542	1140554	812224	784000	1001952	1057616	1277136	1354752
Cd	1A2c	1887	1560	82	1243	1415	1275	379	327	18317	17352	49316	45090	36666	45339	53303	67346	92194	10394	13847	15505	2887	247	1197	1887	3209	324	66	50	58	36
Cd	2A3	35814	32882	18708	17474	21088	21685	19989	16552	19283	17714	18077	19544	20610	24306	27385	29615	29727	30093	31427	30785	30104	31975	29545	32706	35953	30914	35978	36184	36681	36963
Cd	2C1	236756	99279	20389	14816	12671	9074	9151	13979	20641	15175	13928	11234	6558	8188	17221	14728	16103	15250	27773	9253	20685	19181	207	22202	29293	24307		771	27155	13825
Cd	2G	66341	61702	68161	61913	27272	65760	63811	63013	66383	76171	74114	97895	111362	119979	86160	83128	80969	80990	84703	61884	71974	63222	60194	53982	46769	45528	45966	51120	67439	66404
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1122851	1018882	819931	851563	746349	817886	873252	828443	874828	869798	856954	913276	895874	1009129	988603	1033328	994112	907824	899260	904059	932563	887876	871077	869204	785357	850866	808723	808876	818300	775275
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1122851	1018882	819931	851563	746349	817886	873252	828443	874828	869798	856954	913276	895874	1009129	988603	1033328	994112	907824	899260	904059	932563	887876	871077	869204	785357	850866	808723	808876	818300	775275
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	1122851	1018882	819931	851563	746349	817886	873252	828443	874828	869798	856954	913276	895874	1009129	988603	1033328	994112	907824	899260	904059	932563	887876	871077	869204	785357	850866	808723	808876	818300	775275
Hg	1A1a	54801	38202	51460	43349	11880	22323	15079	50148	50045	42954	118309	119273	164496	184823	174454	185601	170430	183493	188890	135078	183289	196224	176175	190560	186661	177886	198611	110858	123303	107127
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1133474	1092456	1117176	320043	294455	290810	282059	328705	352881	379793	483687	491323	536544	565141	571105	591332	566326	599659	573614	509607	532329	512407	484133	498343	486101	481554	491130	428031	427522	391202
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1133474	1092456	1117176	320043	294455	290810	282059	328705	352881	379793	483687	491323	536544	565141	571105	591332	566326	599659	573614	509607	532329	512407	484133	498343	486101	481554	491130	428031	427522	391202
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	1133474	1092456	1117176	320043	294455	290810	282059	328705	352881	379793	483687	491323	536544	565141	571105	591332	566326	599659	573614	509607	532329	512407	484133	498343	486101	481554	491130	428031	427522	391202