Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: HR Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
NOx	11B	380	380	96	820	372	63	255	402	766	48	1403	350	180	827	36	63	298	1263	345	279	194	328	567	200	19	606	673	4117	103
NOx	1A3ai(ii)	1544	304	243	605	871	819	871	790	853	820	698	699	663	657	729	895	910	946	1107	1070	1014	1091	1145	1278	1270	1201	1261	1507	1906
NOx	1A3biii	10239	6073	6915	8642	9202	7620	9300	10097	9149	10222	8723	8564	10860	11052	11512	9842	10614	10103	8832	8927	9528	8828	7516	10368	9187	8755	8199	9784	8970
NOx	1A3dii	1654	1344	2116	1918	775	1388	2411	1863	1236	1156	1101	1256	1653	1632	1117	1221	1271	1321	1666	1798	1495	1502	1437	1478	1613	1582	1605	1701	1812
NOx	1A4cii	7777	6210	2583	1760	5257	4192	4539	4096	6217	6538	8189	8824	7988	7596	7000	6679	6515	6156	6069	5467	4979	4668	4067	3709	3467	3099	2818	2568	2397
NOx	3Da1	2793	2827	3245	2375	2520	2429	2558	3207	2476	2746	3068	3337	3132	2954	3057	3154	3221	3392	4424	2361	2843	3250	2779	2026	1916	2273	1880	2559	2585
NMVOC	1B2av	3604	1807	2360	2352	2642	2953	3039	3127	3256	3608	3441	3390	3363	3331	3350	3169	3136	3392	3013	3239	2908	2679	2402	2360	2088	2275	2254	2194	2316
SOx	11B	76	76	19	164	74	13	51	80	153	10	281	70	36	165	7	13	60	253	69	56	39	66	113	40	4	121	135	823	21
SOx	1A3bi	1092	860	1992	1174	1082	1192	2008	1697	1654	1828	2336	2059	1856	2641	2504	2087	2221	1755	1599	1331	999	278	15	15	17	19	20	22	20
SOx	1A3biii	2480	1358	1598	2494	1826	1171	2307	1656	1646	1889	1741	1191	1609	1895	1616	1121	1117	749	664	572	516	135	3	6	6	6	6	8	7
NH3	3Da2a	12937	12550	9766	9736	9243	8636	8200	7974	7709	7951	7605	7537	7426	7627	7754	7297	7440	7069	6628	6749	6489	6319	6240	6012	5973	5882	5866	6015	5757
CO	2B10a	30624	18783	13479	17123	21468	27185	26735	24214	24088	20627	30004	24018	26794	28450	17779	17240	39110	34869	9037	52	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Pb	1A1a	500595	439526	586425	452983	378970	424742	420580	515079	645408	674167	400176	453475	493352	652543	426276	499926	477932	508475	491443	439512	287517	333831	275089	266963	252953	276361	300600	226668	258332
Pb	1A3aii(i)	328604	150608	27385	410738	109539	82157	11	54774	27393	328595	27391	54773	27391	328593	301215	301215	301213	301214	273835	273834	164303	164303	136920	136919	136920	109538	136920	136920	136921
Pb	1A3bi	406295138	289673348	233606803	233936116	254428424	238787254	189842192	171534803	163661959	159890362	129250176	98913734	53537690	17688183	10976593	6145404	3564666	3685409	3510295	3506722	3307564	3249218	3027996	2990671	2791091	2833449	2876147	2786111	2657130
Pb	1A3bii	25652795	20192247	16002314	10695503	14604446	11108558	8815508	7913764	8262669	6394356	6138118	2724984	1989776	715654	478060	321242	217672	214616	207646	197649	184985	175411	143822	130308	115875	119106	119846	148040	146965
Pb	1A3bvi	521990	392341	384871	420647	448133	456854	499856	562094	580248	626152	626073	559214	621602	675422	697937	720231	771545	822983	795033	801099	773074	753647	723000	773105	749545	788407	810890	899132	868721
Pb	1A4bi	1785183	1687254	1282927	1331241	1181274	1236142	1382287	1266375	1291322	1279930	1133345	1211290	1172332	1360400	1309428	1410132	1278934	1214329	1222836	1266076	1378232	1332992	1328190	1325783	1162260	1327016	1289383	1250532	1239226
Pb	1B2aiv	410044	286375	223376	302640	276703	289903	230771	230220	294605	340675	451828	398147	408945	406199	439616	452865	372858	446516	346375	431107	337216	271701	294895	244946	204224	216736	215716	243019	187322
Pb	2C1	76393384	28560824	265054	192613	164723	117962	118960	181727	268330	197280	181067	146039	85251	106449	223873	191464	209342	198254	361050	120286	268910	249358	2696	288624	380810	315987		10026	353015
Pb	2G	555856	555856	555856	555856	555856	951776	1401008	1384544	938448	762832	554288	1300656	6500928	9005808	4861584	2174032	1636992	1153264	802816	357504	141904	122304	8542	1140554	812224	784000	1001952	1057616	1277136
Cd	1A2c	1887	1560	82	1243	1415	1275	379	327	18317	17352	49316	45090	36666	45339	53303	67346	92194	10394	13847	15505	2887	247	1197	1887	3209	324	66	50	58
Cd	1A2f	63747	56321	51725	48790	43041	42348	43600	53763	51868	47449	50593	48590	46798	51616	52132	50583	57009	56467	51383	50640	49912	41776	44540	48006	39793	33620	27525	35541	34275
Cd	2C1	236756	99279	20389	14816	12671	9074	9151	13979	20641	15175	13928	11234	6558	8188	17221	14728	16103	15250	27773	9253	20685	19181	207	22202	29293	24307		771	27155
Cd	2G	66341	61702	68161	61913	27272	65760	63811	63013	66383	76171	74114	97895	111362	119979	86160	83128	80969	80990	84703	61884	71974	63222	60194	53982	46769	45528	45966	51120	67439
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1123771	1028394	820556	851986	746731	818476	874249	829885	875978	871058	858758	914858	897363	1010750	990320	1035018	995830	909661	900923	905728	934128	889457	872526	870343	786634	852098	809753	809981	843503
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1123771	1028394	820556	851986	746731	818476	874249	829885	875978	871058	858758	914858	897363	1010750	990320	1035018	995830	909661	900923	905728	934128	889457	872526	870343	786634	852098	809753	809981	843503
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	1123771	1028394	820556	851986	746731	818476	874249	829885	875978	871058	858758	914858	897363	1010750	990320	1035018	995830	909661	900923	905728	934128	889457	872526	870343	786634	852098	809753	809981	843503
Hg	1A1a	54801	38202	51460	43349	11880	22323	15079	50148	50045	42954	118309	119273	164496	184823	174454	185601	170430	183493	188890	135078	183289	196224	176175	190560	186661	177886	198611	110858	105763
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1124980	1086108	1111324	313921	287811	283795	274402	320226	343946	370302	474188	481784	526547	554557	560406	580414	554916	587645	562045	498111	521190	501480	474808	488075	476058	470985	479976	416271	400982
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1124980	1086108	1111324	313921	287811	283795	274402	320226	343946	370302	474188	481784	526547	554557	560406	580414	554916	587645	562045	498111	521190	501480	474808	488075	476058	470985	479976	416271	400982
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	1124980	1086108	1111324	313921	287811	283795	274402	320226	343946	370302	474188	481784	526547	554557	560406	580414	554916	587645	562045	498111	521190	501480	474808	488075	476058	470985	479976	416271	400982