Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: HR Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
NOx	1A3biii	10031	5701	6572	8101	8560	7360	8669	9431	8876	10043	8572	8566	10775	10858	11581	9886	10826	10406	9200	9413	10017	9347	8150	11211	9237	9233	8925
NOx	1A3di(i)	2764	1816	1975	2925	3534	2598	2931	1882	2060	1662	1453	2273	1871	1756	1865	2015	1557	1939	1721	554	499	1934				118	212
NOx	1A3dii	1654	1344	2116	1918	775	1388	2411	1863	1236	1156	1101	1256	1653	1632	1117	1221	1271	1321	1666	1798	1495	1502	1437	1478	1613	1582	1605
NOx	1A4cii	7777	6210	2583	1760	5257	4192	4539	4096	6217	6538	8189	8824	8101	7692	7077	6741	6565	6192	6094	5478	4979	4668	4067	3709	3467	3099	2818
NMVOC	1B2av	3604	1807	2360	2352	2642	2953	3039	3127	3256	3608	3441	3390	3363	3331	3350	3169	3136	3392	3013	3239	2908	2679	2402	2360	2088	2275	2250
NMVOC	2D3e	10149	5969	3975	4027	4534	16091	12323	4323	4271	4194	4269	4092	4158	4167	4522	4373	4594	4818	4755	4562	4672	4421	4361	3051	3006	3008	2961
SOx	1A2f	35648	18916	14408	17781	18377	13130	9065	10157	12267	9571	8029	3396	4383	2974	1985	3123	2980	3226	2877	3004	2980	1586	1844	1905	1650	1974	1786
SOx	1A3bi	1082	856	1976	1097	995	1098	1822	1552	1537	1694	2177	1916	1714	2387	2313	1975	2047	1632	1474	1247	921	257	15	14	13	19	40
SOx	1A3biii	2424	1268	1504	2332	1693	1125	2142	1540	1588	1846	1700	1182	1600	1877	1615	1132	1145	777	695	608	546	144	4	6	4	6	17
NH3	3B1a	11707	11299	10904	10523	10154	9798	9454	9122	8802	8492	8193	7904	7625	7356	7096	6844	6602	6368	6046	6046	5664	5596	5204	4934	4888	4791	4597
CO	1A4bii	3210	6315	1242	5798	5807	5833	6914	4656	5437	9246	8869	7689	5999	5926	5268	5931	6156	6178	6587	6370	6219	6294	5926	5711	6195	5817	5743
CO	2B10a	30624	18783	13479	17123	21468	27185	26735	24214	24088	20627	30004	24018	26794	28450	17779	17240	39110	34869	9037	52	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A1a	463035	399743	543352	410312	285164	303776	323582	446866	566319	589912	363815	437697	479960	638516	409780	485245	465476	497950	483118	431182	278473	324556	281245	264273	250972	273849	298151
Pb	1A3aii(i)	328605	150608	27385	410738	109540	82157	11	54774	27393	328595	27391	54773	27391	328593	301215	301215	301214	301215	273835	273834	164303	164303	136920	136920	136920	109538	136920
Pb	1A3bi	433273204	323920187	278878882	268711466	293622611	303995351	252608290	252846923	257302509	261874933	251172700	222741182	136970602	57066980	49378634	43836648	3867789	3992120	3838180	3864866	3671306	3620819	3446507	3382134	3113066	3118508	3145069
Pb	1A3bii	17310450	15721885	14308683	9443786	13404354	11069452	9242456	9540633	11080915	9322807	11146615	5649815	4790102	1841754	1844852	1645889	123703	120729	108723	102344	93260	87407	65832	61540	59311	59130	55557
Pb	1A3biv	3697259	3914919	3016104	3013198	2892976	4323037	4949477	6463986	5706061	6350688	7650326	7666900	4891209	2619665	3047879	3194190	109136	120229	140360	141505	135696	130136	116846	111579	116242	114722	113662
Pb	1A4bi	1785183	1687254	1282927	1331241	1181274	1236142	1382287	1266375	1291322	1279930	1133345	1211290	1172332	1360400	1309428	1410132	1278934	1214329	1222836	1266076	1378232	1332992	1328190	1325739	1162260	1327016	1289383
Pb	1B2aiv	410044	286375	223376	302640	276703	289903	230771	230220	294605	340675	451828	398147	408945	406199	439616	452865	372858	446516	346375	431107	337216	271701	294895	183820	178788	171829	170381
Pb	2C1	76393384	28560824	265054	192613	164723	117962	118960	181727	268330	197280	181067	146039	85251	106449	223873	191464	209342	198255	361049	120286	268910	249358	15330	169671	454012	386316	61413
Pb	2G	555856	555856	555856	555856	555856	951776	1401008	1384544	938448	762832	554288	1300656	6500928	9005808	4861584	2174032	1636992	1153264	802816	357504	141904	122304	8542	1140554	812224	784000	1001952
Cd	1A2c												45090	36666	45339	53303	67346	92194	10394	13837	15484	2887	247	1197	1886	3209	324	66
Cd	2C1	236756	99279	20389	14816	12671	9074	9151	13979	20641	15175	13928	11234	6558	8188	17221	14728	16103	15250	27773	9253	20685	19181	1179	13052	34924	29717	4724
Cd	2G	66341	61702	68161	61913	27272	65760	63811	63013	66383	76171	74114	97895	111362	119979	86160	83128	80969	80990	84703	61884	71974	63222	60194	53982	46769	45528	45966
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1183130	1069618	867450	908198	783143	853379	914846	878260	901289	899469	857449	946169	930222	1044669	1023414	1072644	1032627	948682	931935	942225	981127	928812	909733	886832	822041	888710	845707
Hg	1A1a	59616	43140	56915	50429	14452	24719	18925	55691	54804	48432	124630	120372	165527	185901	175483	186718	171414	184525	190036	136204	184590	197368	176669	191794	187668	178863	199528
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1166043	1123108	1147135	353086	322275	317783	308481	356104	377250	402999	506624	511103	555985	584001	589668	610636	584632	617445	591347	528363	553126	531484	503699	502491	500397	492016	499677

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
HCB	1A1a	3950	2826	4046	3005	604	1523	875	3635	3628	3119	9009	10034	12802	13675	12557	13524	12764	13607	14051	9742	13559	19064	18193	20146	20121	24467	33582