Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: HR Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NOx	1A3di(i)	2764	1816	1975	2925	3534	2598	2931	1882	2060	1662	1453	2273	1871	1756	1865	2015	1557	1939	1721	554	499	1934				118
NOx	1A3dii	1654	1344	2116	1918	775	1388	2411	1863	1236	1156	1101	1256	1653	1632	1117	1221	1271	1321	1666	1798	1495	1502	1437	1478	1613	1582
NOx	1A4cii	7905	6314	2628	1791	5349	4261	4608	4154	6301	6671	8397	9105	8235	7833	7218	6848	6644	6242	6153	5535	5032	4706	4071	3683	3429	3114
NMVOC	1B2av	3554	1769	2332	2319	2605	2911	3002	3087	3213	3569	3401	3348	3321	3289	3322	3146	3113	3365	3003	3246	2935	2635	2373	2315	1994	2204
NMVOC	2D3a	11128	7247	4747	4583	5271	4700	4834	4441	4102	3697	3657	3860	4112	3563	3951	3880	3417	3066	3482	2804	2834	2677	2350	2008	1838	2110
NMVOC	2D3d	5489	3468	2286	2266	2699	2771	3484	3751	3868	3798	3777	4198	3793	3833	3964	4098	4330	5024	4929	3796	4099	4154	3566	3155	3545	3639
NMVOC	2H2	22358	19506	11599	10439	7309	7754	9421	7955	7331	7159	6769	6277	7004	6547	7009	7967	7699	5619	5429	4706	4840	5534	5048	4900	5604	4422
NMVOC	3B1b	1501	1453	1026	1224	952	961	963	965	1006	1028	1028	1167	1090	1247	1574	1570	1682	1576	1609	1636	1845	1866	1958	1992	1930	2201
SOx	1A2f	35648	18916	14408	17781	18377	13130	9065	10157	12267	9571	8029	3396	4383	2974	1985	3123	2980	3226	2877	3004	2980	1586	1844	1905	1559	1896
SOx	1A3bi	1082	856	1976	1097	995	1098	1822	1552	1537	1694	2177	1916	1714	2387	2313	1983	2047	1632	992	1247	921	257	15	14	13	14
SOx	1A3biii	2424	1268	1504	2332	1693	1125	2142	1540	1588	1846	1700	1182	1600	1877	1615	1132	1145	777	860	608	546	144	4	6	4	4
NH3	3B1a	12914	12456	12014	11587	11175	10777	10393	10023	9665	9320	8987	8666	8355	8056	7767	7489	7220	6960	6606	6602	6182	6107	5678	5382	5331	5223
NH3	3B1b	4326	3989	2689	3069	2288	2219	2139	2064	2077	2051	1983	2226	2057	2326	2906	2866	3039	2818	2847	2864	3199	3213	3348	3383	3237	3711
CO	1A2f	20774	14279	10792	9779	9967	9660	9540	10324	10175	9794	9823	8627	8204	7799	8588	8976	9370	10049	9790	8462	8500	7215	7544	7920	7802	8434
CO	2B10a	30624	18783	13479	17123	21468	27185	26735	24214	24088	20627	30004	24018	26794	28450	17779	17240	39110	34869	9037	52	0	0	0	0	0	0

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pb	1A1a	463035	399743	543352	410312	285164	303776	323582	446866	566319	589912	363815	437697	479960	638516	409780	485245	465476	497950	483118	431182	278434	308010	260573	240663	226451	228756
Pb	1A2f	642785	434817	348508	301769	319838	287819	284195	320370	309918	325121	348326	335991	331205	326523	340682	343601	371340	389246	350934	326579	361222	304842	310279	334244	327741	306405
Pb	1A3aii(i)	25	13696	27386	410744	27396	82160	12	54777	27396	54778	27394	54776	27393	54775	301217	301219	301218	301219	273840	273844	164315	164316	136932	136931	136931	109549
Pb	1A3bi	433273204	323920187	278878882	268711466	293622611	303995351	252608290	252846923	257302509	261874933	251172700	222741182	136970602	57066980	49378634	45212566	3867789	3992120	3838180	3864866	3671306	3620819	3446507	3382134	3113066	3118508
Pb	1A3bii	17310450	15721885	14308683	9443786	13404354	11069452	9242456	9540633	11080915	9322807	11146615	5649815	4790102	1841754	1844852	862132	123703	120729	108723	102344	92764	86040	63756	58938	59311	59130
Pb	1A3biv	3697259	3914919	3016104	3013198	2892976	4323037	4949477	6463986	5706061	6350688	7650326	7666900	4891209	2619665	3047879	1719112	109136	120229	140361	141504	135696	130136	116846	111578	116242	114722
Pb	1A4bi	1785183	1687254	1282927	1331241	1181274	1236142	1382287	1266375	1291322	1279930	1133345	1211290	1172332	1360400	1309428	1410132	1278934	1214329	1222836	1266076	1378232	1332992	1328190	1325739	1162260	1327016
Pb	1B2aiv	410044	286375	223376	302640	276703	289903	230771	230220	294605	340675	451828	398147	408945	406199	439616	452865	372858	446516	346375	431107	337216	271701	294895	183820	178788	171829
Pb	2A3	468333	429991	244637	228502	275771	283577	261394	216449	252158	231647	236395	255580	269516	317854	358112	387277	388744	393518	410973	402579	393669	418130	386359	427690	470155	404262
Pb	2C1	76393384	28560824	265054	192613	164723	117962	118960	181727	268330	197280	181067	146039	85251	106449	223873	191464	209342	198255	361049	120286	268910	249358	15330	169671	454012	386316
Cd	1A2c												45090	36666	45339	53303	67346	92194	10394	13837	15484	2887	247	1197	1886	3209	3209
Cd	1A2f	85960	68808	57444	54715	48892	48373	48397	58857	56691	50238	51673	48590	46798	51616	52132	50583	57009	56467	46090	46418	49926	41759	44544	46317	39735	33419
Cd	2A3	35814	32882	18708	17474	21088	21685	19989	16552	19283	17714	18077	19544	20610	24306	27385	29615	29727	30093	31427	30785	30104	31975	29545	32706	35953	30914
Cd	2C1	236756	99279	20389	14816	12671	9074	9151	13979	20641	15175	13928	11234	6558	8188	17221	14728	16103	15250	27773	9253	20685	19181	1179	13052	34924	29717
Cd	2D3i	65291	60653	67111	60863	26222	63963	61166	60399	64611	74731	73067	95440	99090	102978	76982	79024	77879	78813	83187	61209	71707	62991	60178	51829	45236	44048
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1180457	1067448	864381	906040	780703	849902	910507	874071	897874	896302	854699	942116	916447	1025940	1012804	1067056	1028066	945093	929137	940045	979410	925592	906741	881540	818343	880360
Hg	1A1a	59616	43140	56915	50429	14452	24719	18925	55691	54804	48432	124630	120372	165527	185901	175483	186718	171414	184525	190036	136204	184589	196918	176107	191152	187002	177637
Hg	1A4bi	57813	50711	38094	39063	35261	38212	43413	41575	42322	43934	38918	41691	41048	47219	45874	49519	45571	42951	44756	46044	49159	46581	44817	44006	38597	42425
Hg	1B2b	701040	768250	804490	2280	2040	2350	2800	1990	2930	1980	1930	2090	730	750	780	760	710	710	50	42	39	41	41	41	41	41
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1164415	1121957	1145077	351945	320859	316043	306683	354438	375546	401241	504888	509418	554017	581642	587893	609013	583056	615959	589932	527074	551927	529721	501891	500626	499144	483918

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
HCB	1A1a	3950	2826	4046	3005	604	1523	875	3635	3628	3119	9009	10034	12802	13675	12557	13524	12764	13607	14051	9742	13550	15048	13176	14416	14170	13522