Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: HR Submission year: 2016

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2014
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2014
PMs: 2000 - 2014

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
NOx	1A2gvii	4654	2468	1413	1619	1870	1707	1808	2278	2432	2118	2741	2778	2660	3413	3421	3901	4168	4189	5138	3642	2995	2698	2513	2073	3655
NOx	1A3bii	2672	2641	2600	2707	2613	2530	2457	3098	3459	3381	3724	2794	3708	4052	4271	4727	4499	4418	6239	4110	3841	3605	3096	2882	2143
NOx	1A4bi	2963	2238	1854	1732	1771	1974	2295	2401	2288	2397	2368	2312	2387	2742	2699	2724	2599	2334	2446	2555	2741	2819	2753	2634	4617
NOx	1A4cii	7905	6314	2628	1791	5349	4261	4608	4154	6301	6671	8397	9105	8235	7833	7218	6848	6644	6242	6153	5535	5032	4706	4071	3683	3436
NOx	3Da1	2793	2827	3245	2375	2520	2429	2558	3207	2476	2746	3068	3337	3132	2954	3057	3154	2907	3241	3150	2808	2588	2979	2805	2301	1854
NMVOC	1A4bi	11387	7227	5811	5403	5744	5876	7254	7179	6759	6292	7183	5477	5573	7242	7033	6779	6575	5341	5358	5486	6102	7022	7120	6427	15682
NMVOC	1B2av	4387	2417	2076	3032	3142	3613	3802	3878	4057	4531	4360	4235	4252	4202	4207	4087	4029	4211	3865	4032	3702	3419	3077	3062	2702
NMVOC	2D3a	11128	7247	4747	4583	5271	4700	4834	4441	4102	3697	3657	3860	4112	3563	3951	3880	3417	3066	3482	2804	2834	2677	2350	2008	1838
NMVOC	2D3d	5489	3468	2286	2266	2699	2771	3484	3751	3868	3798	3777	4198	3793	3833	3964	4098	4330	5024	4929	3796	4099	4154	3566	3155	3545
NMVOC	2H2	22358	19506	11599	10439	7309	7754	9421	7955	7331	7159	6769	6277	7004	6547	7009	7967	7699	5619	5429	4706	4840	5534	5048	4900	5604
NMVOC	5A	920	934	956	1003	1057	1149	1229	1322	1425	1523	1464	1571	1680	1789	1897	2006	2259	2511	2700	2774	2476	2439	2156	2204	2041
SOx	1A1b	22489	11896	13701	17400	18771	12878	10180	10007	11963	12229	10599	10193	14285	12585	10777	11915	10844	12757	8913	10906	10700	6820	6073	2677	2290
SOx	1A3biii	2424	1268	1504	2332	1693	1125	2142	1540	1588	1846	1700	1182	1600	1877	1615	1132	1145	777	860	608	546	144	4	6	7
SOx	1A4ai	6884	2962	1408	2675	1914	1355	1154	1870	1593	1374	1660	1508	2100	1918	1659	1465	1396	916	878	1135	954	894	851	189	121
NH3	1A4bi	1370	877	767	715	773	792	979	969	903	833	959	733	741	961	939	893	873	712	714	735	815	946	963	871	2161
NH3	3B1a	12914	12456	12014	11587	11175	10777	10393	10023	9665	9320	8987	8666	8355	8056	7767	7489	7220	6960	6606	6602	6182	6107	5678	5385	5259
NH3	3Da1	7003	7124	8699	6732	6473	6266	6910	8852	6140	7043	8166	10835	9722	8761	9211	8924	8038	9233	9318	8084	7927	9711	9739	7124	5082
CO	1A2f	20774	14279	10792	9779	9967	9660	9540	10324	10175	9794	9823	8627	8204	7799	8588	8976	9370	10049	9790	8462	8500	7215	7544	7920	7688
CO	1A2gvii	2897	9547	6691	6992	7096	7763	8772	9641	7558	6833	6634	6731	6487	7826	8614	6350	6710	6937	7572	6508	4874	4543	4128	3947	4555
CO	1A4bi	98967	61082	47067	43542	45749	46683	57342	56679	53538	50076	56654	43131	44054	56984	55083	53329	51331	41540	41694	42550	47495	54222	54868	49704	120084
CO	1A4bii	4109	7848	1495	6751	6519	6344	7356	4843	5524	9357	8939	7719	5999	5926	5268	5931	6156	6176	6580	6359	6205	6276	5907	5691	6172
CO	2B10a	30624	18783	13479	17123	21468	27185	26735	24214	24088	20627	30004	24018	26794	28450	17779	17240	39110	34869	9037	52	0	0	0	0	0

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
PM2.5	1A4bi	9016	6886	6996	9088	8842	8495	8081	6420	6274	6254	6740	7507	7329	6336	14745
PM2.5	NATIONALTOTAL	15373	13531	13812	16302	16000	15505	15338	13779	13195	12712	12711	12849	12356	10913	19226
PM10	1A4bi	9247	7062	7176	9322	9069	8714	8289	6584	6434	6414	6913	7697	7514	6495	15113
PM10	3Da1	1155	1179	1188	1169	1152	1198	1210	1164	1181	1190	1140	1136	1187	1187	1028
TSP	1A4bi	9716	7417	7538	9795	9526	9158	8708	6915	6759	6736	7263	8086	7894	6825	15877
TSP	3Da1	1155	1179	1188	1169	1152	1198	1210	1164	1181	1190	1140	1136	1187	1187	1028
BC	1A4bi	996	760	770	998	973	929	895	720	712	721	789	897	896	793	1911

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Pb	1A1a	463035	399743	543352	410312	285164	303776	323582	446866	566319	589912	363815	437697	479960	638516	409780	485245	465476	497950	483118	431182	278434	308010	260573	240663	249787
Pb	1A2f	642785	434817	348508	301769	319838	287819	284195	320370	309918	325121	348326	335991	331205	326523	340682	343601	371340	389246	350934	326579	361222	304842	310279	334244	320870
Pb	1A3aii(i)	25	13696	27386	410744	27396	82160	12	54777	27396	54778	27394	54776	27393	54775	301217	301219	301218	301219	273840	273844	164315	164316	136932	136931	136931
Pb	1A3bi	433273204	323920187	278878882	268711466	293622611	303995351	252608290	252846923	257302509	261874933	251172700	222741182	136970602	57066980	49378634	45212566	3867789	3992120	3838180	3864866	3671306	3620819	3446507	3382134	3106508
Pb	1A3bii	17310450	15721885	14308683	9443786	13404354	11069452	9242456	9540633	11080915	9322807	11146615	5649815	4790102	1841754	1844852	862132	123703	120729	108723	102344	93260	87407	65832	61540	56855
Pb	1A3biv	3697259	3914919	3016104	3013198	2892976	4323037	4949477	6463986	5706061	6350688	7650326	7666900	4891209	2619665	3047879	1719112	109136	120229	140361	141505	135696	130136	116846	111579	116242
Pb	1A4bi	1161645	666411	391360	355839	345597	344575	419521	408828	403886	388363	423785	305872	322561	422420	393561	402654	383236	308911	323736	334171	399671	461594	485227	466292	1155729
Pb	1B2aiv	410044	286375	223376	302640	276703	289903	230771	230220	294605	340675	451828	398147	408945	406199	439616	452865	372858	446516	346375	431107	337216	271701	294895	183820	178788
Pb	2A3	468333	429991	244637	228502	275771	283577	261394	216449	252158	231647	236395	255580	269516	317854	358112	387277	388744	393518	410973	402579	393669	418130	386359	427690	425714
Pb	2C1	76393384	28560824	265052	192613	164715	117965	118960	181823	268328	199763	184655	150782	88013	112788	223881	179143	209342	198255	361049	141089	268910	249356	2696	286161	387114
Cd	1A2c												45090	36666	45339	53303	67346	92194	10394	13837	15484	2887	247	1197	1886	3209
Cd	1A2f	85960	68808	57444	54715	48892	48373	48397	58857	56691	50238	51673	48590	46798	51616	52132	50583	57009	56467	46090	46418	49926	41759	44544	46317	36520
Cd	1A4bi	258600	164644	140927	131308	141310	144687	178698	176829	165236	152790	175405	133893	135540	175963	171516	163788	164575	138466	143313	152691	175674	211317	223988	212275	549562
Cd	2A3	35814	32882	18708	17474	21088	21685	19989	16552	19283	17714	18077	19544	20610	24306	27385	29615	29727	30093	31427	30785	30104	31975	29545	32706	32555
Cd	2C1	236756	99279	20389	14816	12670	9074	9151	13986	20641	15366	14204	11599	6770	8676	17222	13780	16103	15250	27773	10853	20685	19181	207	22012	29778
Cd	2D3i	65291	60653	67111	60863	26222	63963	61166	60399	64611	74731	73067	95440	99090	102978	76982	79024	77879	78813	83187	61209	71707	62991	60178	51829	45236
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	878772	574841	434164	435283	377271	419398	445850	460078	469469	465990	512120	505369	506393	573643	570719	579914	595665	507898	495088	491733	507631	505244	499085	475923	804312
Hg	1A1a	59616	43140	56915	50429	14452	24719	18925	55691	54804	48432	124630	120372	165527	185901	175483	186718	171414	184525	190036	136204	184589	196918	176107	191152	187002
Hg	1A4bi	44881	29538	19602	18832	17929	19720	23445	23789	23916	25442	24201	22912	23424	27765	26879	28623	26993	24172	26108	26716	28862	28508	27333	26180	39782
Hg	1B2b	701040	768250	804490	2280	2040	2350	2800	1990	2930	1980	1930	2090	730	750	780	760	710	710	50	42	39	41	41	41	41
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1151259	1100613	1126442	331543	303365	297374	286555	336490	356977	382616	490064	490555	536276	562133	568727	587709	564298	596984	571103	507960	531532	511522	484042	484924	500572

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
DIOX	1A4bi	16874	10558	8247	7643	8070	8240	10149	10038	9471	8836	10052	7644	7799	10121	9802	9472	8955	7082	6920	6872	7429	8223	8012	6946	16007
DIOX	2C1	531	366	306	222	190	136	137	210	310	230	213	174	102	130	258	207	242	229	417	163	310	288	3	330	447
HCB	1A1a	3950	2826	4046	3005	604	1523	875	3635	3628	3119	9009	10034	12802	13675	12557	13524	12764	13607	14051	9742	13550	15048	13176	14416	14170
HCB	1A2f	34921	27612	23843	22571	20816	20092	20297	24668	24104	22431	23334	22813	22055	23945	24385	23900	26645	26492	22268	21520	22602	19144	20091	21080	17489
HCB	1A3dii	3385	2720	4150	3717	1591	2720	4616	3587	2482	2344	2248	2520	3249	3221	2324	2540	2644	2747	3428	3730	3059	3079	2941	3075	3435
HCB	1A4bi	98142	62615	53977	50307	54222	55537	68604	67899	63387	58568	67294	51413	52006	67504	65849	62798	63164	53184	55032	58666	67446	81200	86086	81570	211330
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	155805	110889	100925	94888	92340	94984	109534	116503	112638	106211	123915	111561	112520	127605	126344	122549	126488	119220	113669	114880	115435	127307	135846	127897	254050