Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: HR Submission year: 2014

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2012
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2012
PMs: 2000 - 2012

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
NOx	1A2fii	6898	3594	2006	2235	2519	2257	2340	2882	3009	2611	3382	3479	3407	4520	4710	5615	6302	6803	7565	5772	5179	4980	4559
NOx	1A3dii	1730	1363	1977	1611	824	1240	1919	1526	1210	1175	1151	1228	1481	1486	1237	1351	1407	1462	1773	1955	1479	1504	1424
NOx	1A4bi	3689	2670	2218	2227	2299	2386	2815	2954	2755	2732	2796	2684	2820	3265	3193	3176	3031	2664	2763	2904	3100	3256	3177
NOx	1A4cii	10342	8068	3285	2193	6427	5035	5362	4768	7148	7510	9386	10181	9532	9507	9210	9205	9507	9567	10070	9678	9341	9346	8702
NMVOC	1A4bi	10132	6464	5397	5025	5363	5503	6788	6707	6301	5866	6675	5140	5211	6733	6555	6296	6300	5305	5501	5846	6711	8003	8455
NMVOC	1B2av	4387	2417	2076	3032	3142	3613	3802	3878	4057	4531	4360	4235	4252	4202	4207	4087	4029	4211	3865	4032	3702	3419	3077
SOx	1A3	7206	5262	6505	7761	5381	4818	7682	5996	5878	5833	6722	5854	7084	8397	8909	10232	9397	10047	8368	7368	3469	3517	819
SOx	1A3bi	1082	856	1976	1097	995	1098	1822	1851	1537	1694	2262	2094	2005	2722	3164	3919	3830	4546	2353	3292	1344	1095	329
SOx	1A3bii	907	852	945	1332	797	625	958	859	1030	1088	1363	869	1368	1693	1800	2401	1910	1951	2434	1504	639	510	124
SOx	1A3biii	2424	1268	1504	2332	1693	1125	2142	1240	1588	1846	1798	1339	1986	2181	2333	2253	2168	2163	2063	1630	793	629	151
SOx	1A4ai	6650	2910	1284	2223	1980	1048	918	1552	1152	1030	1372	1448	1998	1767	1601	1308	1208	949	849	1080	921	831	777
NH3	2B5a	3483	3472	4475	3093	3469	3521	3522	3575	4005	2865	3334	2556	2703	3399	4362	3546	2367	2489	1984	1413	3838	2404	2591
NH3	4B9d	2770	2551	1661	1674	1629	1234	914	1008	705	1225	1032	1489	1140	1193	1023	1110	1149	1189	1135	965	685	282	689
CO	1A2fi	34734	28700	25593	26009	26064	24714	24976	27104	59878	48335	21160	21389	20358	21527	22870	21379	21627	17800	18227	19097	18599	16818	14552
CO	1A2fii	2492	13515	9283	9058	9596	13388	15799	17760	14074	12904	12404	12733	12412	15002	16702	12071	12886	13492	14182	12270	9249	8590	7710
CO	1A4bi	193921	122725	101214	94153	100409	102886	126815	125233	117826	109659	124831	95729	97122	125693	122203	117485	117459	98828	102452	108845	125138	149387	157897
CO	1A4bii	5972	11944	2389	11347	11496	11645	13885	9406	11048	18811	18065	15676	12242	12093	10749	12093	12541	12541	13287	12690	12242	12242	11496
CO	2B5a	30624	18783	13479	17123	21468	27185	26735	24214	24087	20627	30003	24018	26794	28450	17779	17240	39110	34869	9037	52

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Pb	1A3bii	17310450	15721885	14308683	9443786	13404354	11069452	9242456	9540633	11080915	9322807	11146615	5649815	4790102	1841754	1844852	862132	1444440	1279157	1069911	893488	710732	616366	187697
Pb	1A3biv	3697259	3914919	3016104	3013198	2892976	4323037	4949477	6463986	5706061	6350688	7650326	7666900	4891209	2619665	3047879	1719112	3274073	3606872	4210824	4245143	4070880	3904092	3505377
Pb	2C1	76393384	28560824	265052	192613	164715	117965	118960	181823	268328	199763	184655	150782	88013	112788	223881	179143	209342	198255	361049	141089	268910	249356	2696
Cd	1A1a	123777	129714	141875	136467	293090	377807	302944	213273	250832	240872	114525	45219	45316	49365	51995	47252	41363	36940	28515	28423	29253	30033	19334
Cd	1A3	16436	11691	11072	11765	12797	13565	14552	15675	16618	17444	17383	17290	18301	19601	20096	20907	22141	23701	23341	23084	22209	21921	21441
Cd	1A4ai	72869	30990	10021	10933	12682	5584	5864	12982	6072	6184	6426	11861	18105	16552	14017	13208	10305	8982	8243	13455	12656	13623	13329
Cd	1A4bi	219895	138026	99248	117626	125637	103330	123190	136025	120169	103047	116960	104448	119521	141090	132152	126395	120269	100463	97981	109649	122668	144633	151185
Cd	2A7d	35814	32882	18708	17474	21088	21685	19989	16552	19283	17714	18077	19544	20610	24306	27385	29615	29727	30093	31427	30785	30104	31975	29545
Cd	2C1	236756	99279	20389	14816	12670	9074	9151	13986	20641	15366	14204	11599	6770	8676	17222	13780	16103	15250	27773	10853	20685	19181	207
Cd	GRIDTOTAL	1315979	878005	667019	698189	866158	920703	848912	726786	828069	748928	645694	597962	604470	636387	620825	599352	581764	509332	467599	452854	415209	422116	379444
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1315979	878005	667019	698189	866158	920703	848912	726786	828069	748928	645694	597962	604470	636387	620825	599352	581764	509332	467599	452854	415209	422116	379444
Cd	UNFCCCTOTAL	1314892	877789	666839	698010	865563	920112	848355	726184	827414	748303	645158	597425	603954	635876	620232	598636	581037	508581	466758	452135	414443	421317	378623
Hg	1A1a	54831	38216	51487	43555	10945	21019	14239	49860	49533	42452	118515	119187	164433	184757	174351	185531	170374	183462	188901	135086	183296	195762	175002
Hg	1A2fi	269883	157857	137819	124017	117789	113670	131487	131418	137593	115543	114408	131769	133299	257921	446028	331345	239948	282706	292859	244480	286285	250285	240487
Hg	1A4bi	254469	161321	131481	122468	130313	133448	164568	162441	153072	142440	162025	124354	126231	163304	158635	152478	152593	128381	133320	141602	162782	194273	205146
Hg	1B2b	701040	768250	804490	2280	2040	2350	2800	1990	2930	1980	1930	2090	730	750	780	760	710	710	50	42	39	41	41
Hg	GRIDTOTAL	1456106	1261540	1241899	430166	392894	396635	423291	456177	469868	437827	554656	522345	572811	754888	937502	828861	707093	756756	760705	683832	770553	762592	744964
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1456106	1261540	1241899	430166	392894	396635	423291	456177	469868	437827	554656	522345	572811	754888	937502	828861	707093	756756	760705	683832	770553	762592	744964

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
DIOX	1A4bi	144069	91098	74772	69543	74248	75884	93635	92366	86840	80445	92069	70132	71193	92390	89755	85946	86165	72313	74921	79690	91840	110308	116820
DIOX	GRIDTOTAL	154593	99024	84914	80801	79201	83290	106392	102725	94282	87044	98767	72810	80483	101077	94893	91104	91722	78603	82671	87814	98280	117132	123346
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	154593	99024	84914	80801	79201	83290	106392	102725	94282	87044	98767	72810	80483	101077	94893	91104	91722	78603	82671	87814	98280	117132	123346
HCB	1A3dii	3385	2720	4150	3717	1591	2720	4616	3587	2482	2344	2248	2520	3249	3221	2324	2540	2644	2747	3428	3674	2779	2827	2676
HCB	1A4bi	117159	74855	64687	60297	65022	66607	82284	81264	76014	70223	80704	61673	62374	80959	78985	75308	75764	63804	66018	70386	80909	97422	103286
HCB	GRIDTOTAL	157704	107575	94398	88376	84566	88814	105544	110938	104435	93564	110734	92200	94919	116171	115477	108628	110705	100308	101857	103315	116672	132252	138553
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	157704	107575	94398	88376	84566	88814	105544	110938	104435	93564	110734	92200	94919	116171	115477	108628	110705	100308	101857	103315	116672	132252	138553