Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: GR Submission year: 2023

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2021
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2021
PMs: 2000 - 2021

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
NOx	1A2gviii	17867	17174	17126	15120	14992	18370	17859	17855	15049	10475	11893	12831	10067	6765	4240	14586	16277	16164	13860	10026	8073	6807	8110	4019	4305	4606	5100	5256	5346	4240	3871	3390
NOx	1A3ai(ii)	9476	8788	10348	10481	10964	10390	9887	10448	10634	11522	11657	10892	10154	10431	10839	10571	11384	12186	12234	11467	10818	11260	9939	10368	11937	11552	12419	14137	15426	16294	5148	9320
NOx	1A3bii	22591	23516	22707	22591	22367	19781	19449	19209	18952	18641	17796	17325	16736	16252	15970	15020	14856	14858	14961	12875	11470	9340	7909	8724	9066	8371	8469	8820	9557	10369	9014	9182
NMVOC	11B	2322	880	2548	2656	2319	1522	628	1837	5755	366	7085	749	71	107	280	236	704	9285	1445	1574	667	285	1054	80	52	208	601	268	197	4877	411	6351
NMVOC	1A3bv	32854	32515	31109	29572	29311	28623	26915	26457	25974	23584	20355	19912	19450	20640	19760	17707	14597	13842	12445	13934	14385	13878	16137	15705	15562	14709	14112	13633	10928	10846	10173	10553
NMVOC	1A4bi	18058	18233	18220	18213	18202	18164	18227	18293	18165	17947	17989	17973	17761	17728	17773	17715	17445	18542	14923	12926	10875	14663	17329	15282	15136	15713	13548	13963	12782	12409	11534	12830
NMVOC	1A4cii	9038	9452	8979	8910	8931	8731	8769	8766	8766	8766	8766	8677	9075	7500	6762	6578	6452	6265	6068	5543	4941	2997	12957	3513	1368	1402	1085	1998	973	1307	1942	1297
NMVOC	1B1a	10768	10934	11423	11375	11759	11965	12405	12210	12633	12876	13257	13766	14622	14172	14534	14400	13388	13791	13637	13465	11728	12173	13063	11189	10550	9596	6772	7829	7571	5680	2916	2573
SOx	1A3dii	28050	27930	29910	25090	29540	29820	26630	35320	55460	58970	26500	37050	32070	33560	39910	35900	39470	37900	32460	47900	28400	13120	22590	15780	15020	17720	19870	20958	21805	23230	3490	3645
NH3	1A4bi	2121	2121	2121	2121	2121	2121	2121	2121	2124	2121	2121	2121	2121	2121	2121	2121	2091	2222	1775	1539	1340	1796	2142	1873	1837	1896	1640	1689	1555	1505	1402	1552
NH3	3B2	3435	3448	3438	3454	3492	3518	3529	3524	3543	3551	3567	3621	3593	3571	3502	3488	3503	3529	3526	3543	3532	3536	3482	3416	3364	3470	3443	3445	3534	3538	3543	3548
NH3	3Da1	29596	28480	27223	21429	19964	22058	22546	21429	21499	20452	18847	18149	17660	17241	17800	15636	14659	15847	14561	10854	14474	12366	11423	12726	11144	12023	12517	12487	11660	12063	12744	11470
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	90890	88323	85922	80217	76069	79864	80783	79971	79817	79360	76545	75596	75057	74715	77338	75151	72946	73904	70312	66034	71474	70250	68182	68033	65311	64074	64001	63569	63221	63136	63721	62838
NH3	NTCOMPL(NECD)	90890	88323	85922	80217	76069	79864	80783	79971	79817	79360	76545	75596	75057	74715	77338	75151	72946	73904	70312	66034	71474	70250	68182	68033	65311	64074	64001	63569	63221	63136	63721	62838
NH3	NTCOMPLIANCE	90890	88323	85922	80217	76069	79864	80783	79971	79817	79360	76545	75596	75057	74715	77338	75151	72946	73904	70312	66034	71474	70250	68182	68033	65311	64074	64001	63569	63221	63136	63721	62838
CO	1A1a	20488	20074	21151	21150	21948	21502	20988	22479	23413	23473	25154	25266	24881	25614	25872	26268	24814	26117	25771	24056	21011	21354	17604	15616	15657	17289	14022	15360	15639	13337	6650	6505
CO	1A4bi	125470	127153	126975	126882	126792	126587	128356	129183	128140	126041	126837	127088	125288	126052	126134	125683	125028	133493	110013	96442	83511	113117	134028	117846	118474	125460	108025	110761	103069	102068	95345	105141
CO	1A4cii	44117	46049	43924	43701	43768	43123	43245	43234	43234	43234	43234	42650	44235	34680	31698	30629	29598	29304	28356	26656	23774	12503	72740	19098	6807	6916	5296	10477	4619	6578	9561	6260
CO	2C3	18000	18256	18404	18166	17893	16295	17803	16840	18675	20511	21776	21429	21815	22317	22418	22044	22413	22783	22397	18728	19147	23616	23437	24236	24949	26099	26273	26336	26796	26491	27410	26647

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
PM2.5	11B	2150	227	22	32	85	72	214	2818	439	478	203	87	320	24	16	63	182	81	60	1480	125	1927
PM2.5	1A3dii	1690	2359	2047	2135	2531	2285	2512	2408	2068	3912	2967	1849	2184	1707	1775	2132	2142	2192	2323	2298	2244	2086
PM2.5	1A4bi	23454	23452	23283	23284	23312	23267	22860	24207	19400	16765	14271	19120	22572	19729	19408	20054	17315	17838	16304	15757	14672	16267
PM2.5	2A5b	3509	3617	3800	3321	3653	2736	3270	2772	3999	3168	2311	1019	718	921	1279	1341	1691	1340	952	1133	1289	1158
PM10	11B	2628	278	26	40	104	88	261	3444	536	584	248	106	391	30	19	77	223	99	73	1809	153	2356
PM10	1A3dii	1858	2594	2250	2349	2787	2513	2763	2650	2274	4317	3271	2035	2408	1880	1956	2350	2359	2414	2601	2666	2511	2336
PM10	1A4bi	24043	24041	23869	23870	23898	23853	23435	24817	19888	17186	14622	19593	23132	20222	19894	20555	17748	18284	16711	16150	15037	16673
PM10	2A5b	35090	36166	38002	33214	36533	27357	32700	27717	39995	31680	23109	10193	7182	9214	12791	13410	16910	13402	9523	11325	12888	11583
TSP	11B	4062	429	41	61	161	135	404	5323	829	902	383	164	604	46	30	119	344	154	113	2796	236	3641
TSP	1A4bi	25242	25238	25049	25046	25078	25027	24588	26040	20869	18033	15338	20554	24265	21217	20875	21570	18623	19187	17534	16944	15775	17494
TSP	2A5b	117452	121052	127192	111152	122274	91547	109441	92765	133873	106039	77348	34115	24037	30841	42817	44888	56607	44863	31875	37909	43140	38770
BC	1A2e	463	448	477	425	402	428	397	398	456	413	400	397	319	211	256	314	245	256	264	249	277	210
BC	1A3ai(ii)	76	71	66	68	71	69	73	77	79	77	73	1572	68	69	80	72	77	83	100	101	38	76
BC	1A3aii(ii)	5	4	4	4	5	4	4	5	5	7	7	457	6	5	6	6	6	6	7	7	3	6
BC	1A3dii	571	785	697	704	808	756	830	783	691	1138	898	608	659	529	551	658	676	692	748	772	629	680
BC	1A4bi	1939	1939	1929	1930	1931	1928	1918	2057	1668	1461	1276	1729	2074	1833	1825	1912	1651	1699	1579	1547	1442	1596

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Pb	1A1a	47249247	45121559	48392094	48115089	50659485	48380693	47082967	51700022	54307894	53321620	56661516	57916292	56877970	57566955	59588114	59578007	54682185	57150212	55348793	54881875	24582242	24955204	22247686	19699497	21869119	5244445	4766382	6136580	4557207	2415563	1065632	981067
Pb	1A2f	4766590	5116470	4783541	4748211	4629262	4637049	4272047	4109437	4314436	3519410	3821892	3975559	2901140	2314487	2296548	1666834	1378711	2146243	1477020	547036	1025969	475267	369627	343810	387002	333842	260881	355550	863716	685668	764444	955110
Pb	1A3bi	315783372	296429850	275932861	261369968	250472475	245339632	246605893	238881758	233719838	217529960	201796898	878226	922285	974134	1005032	4944	5112	5335	5152	5309	4736	4480	3676	3419	3298	3253	3454	3287	3202	3153	2694	3113
Pb	1A3bii	120835791	116068935	107464859	98836996	94977821	89555216	86089465	81094168	77163816	68448333	60967551	374328	381852	391019	383028	883	883	931	908	853	854	730	599	681	678	818	859	626	677	740	625	683
Pb	1A3biv	12794239	13053873	10446199	12505784	13279397	13400010	13322238	12908564	13326929	13151625	12945369	93926	103619	108712	109052	417	381	378	401	408	481	487	493	489	495	507	450	426	434	422	356	404
Pb	1A3di(i)	437640	399100	454770	533260	564390	600960	532700	534570	602180	533140	619140	607500	543690	560870	566980	507480	548720	562250	550770	465960	484640	496080	405840	380690	331860	315230	303330	379742	390395	449390	284083	316332
Pb	1A4bi	916788	963813	960681	958804	955692	944866	957831	974877	935187	881315	891339	885726	827889	815113	827869	811120	802893	866593	726557	631367	656152	867389	1030565	881121	864065	918005	794361	810650	763989	740416	694581	749561
Cd	1A1a	5713280	5461509	5853282	5821079	6125439	5855755	5699370	6251880	6563489	6446727	6850952	6997930	6872551	6959867	7196886	7200221	6613852	6911413	6698156	6628908	2986239	3028808	2704844	2395289	2689536	699043	636486	802609	630771	397401	216230	207860
Cd	1A2e	1148	933	1021	955	994	614	88021	88878	88140	89859	108911	106489	114370	95717	99872	117259	104649	106064	128562	119399	117639	119707	88852	48339	59927	80100	56492	59273	61952	57590	68527	45533
Cd	1A3di(i)	46360	42060	47610	56060	59150	62480	55740	55970	63540	56100	65460	64780	57970	60110	60900	54680	59200	60850	59690	465960	52320	53760	43920	41050	35700	33670	32330	40683	41942	48230	30044	33443
Cd	1A4bi	383584	384127	384090	384068	384032	383910	384080	384280	384244	383203	383325	383267	382604	382475	382617	382426	382326	412271	334407	294266	306915	405709	494802	421806	408428	427220	371001	378738	358435	346402	326306	352396
Cd	2G	585861	597836	610036	622530	654959	693212	1262356	1284824	1307269	1776014	239903	838705	558253	466542	448899	365626	344034	165503	315594	511305	449266	142733	263925	97428	104632	148057	142001	88035	100462	149902	106649	124650
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	7519069	7305785	7674961	7649369	7987978	7750526	8187261	8768314	9108499	9433706	8353886	9105022	8701801	8663987	8897453	8871880	8267282	8423997	8300024	8389297	4644407	4459251	4318220	3739884	4023829	2061625	1967580	2085724	1899642	1687578	1449430	1517252
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	7519069	7305785	7674961	7649369	7987978	7750526	8187261	8768314	9108499	9433706	8353886	9105022	8701801	8663987	8897453	8871880	8267282	8423997	8300024	8389297	4644407	4459251	4318220	3739884	4023829	2061625	1967580	2085724	1899642	1687578	1449430	1517252
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	7519069	7305785	7674961	7649369	7987978	7750526	8187261	8768314	9108499	9433706	8353886	9105022	8701801	8663987	8897453	8871880	8267282	8423997	8300024	8389297	4644407	4459251	4318220	3739884	4023829	2061625	1967580	2085724	1899642	1687578	1449430	1517252
Hg	1A1a	1708036	1635376	1750750	1741735	1831160	1753315	1706815	1869447	1962072	1930494	2053173	2094919	2057929	2086466	2154367	2157342	1985952	2077113	2025528	1993688	1886617	1915372	1915113	1696272	1053669	931405	710833	775810	852632	716509	324392	300722
Hg	5C1biii	2090	2090	2090	2090	2090	2090	2090	2090	2090	2090	2090	2090	5712	10902	13584	25904	31350	42562	50188	172043	87967	77677	48006	52911	61721	70532	54020	48188	41251	35051	31578	34585
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	2273426	2223002	2303247	2298334	2382416	2306072	2252147	2414684	2523836	2423937	2591570	2656519	2574667	2566281	2651594	2711971	2567543	2716061	2618396	2648207	2458703	2438046	2405252	2188037	1557671	1422608	1225959	1288352	1375792	1209342	808128	846231
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	2273426	2223002	2303247	2298334	2382416	2306072	2252147	2414684	2523836	2423937	2591570	2656519	2574667	2566281	2651594	2711971	2567543	2716061	2618396	2648207	2458703	2438046	2405252	2188037	1557671	1422608	1225959	1288352	1375792	1209342	808128	846231
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	2273426	2223002	2303247	2298334	2382416	2306072	2252147	2414684	2523836	2423937	2591570	2656519	2574667	2566281	2651594	2711971	2567543	2716061	2618396	2648207	2458703	2438046	2405252	2188037	1557671	1422608	1225959	1288352	1375792	1209342	808128	846231

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
DIOX	1A4bi	24535	24827	24800	24786	24769	24721	24936	25063	24867	24505	24612	24624	24294	24341	24383	24296	23708	24889	19983	17145	14706	19484	22674	19492	19041	19619	17013	17562	15905	15240	14234	15685
HCB	1A4bi	147549	147773	147758	147749	147734	147683	147743	147824	147795	147378	147425	147398	147122	147060	147121	147041	147002	158525	128586	113149	118017	156011	190275	162218	157075	164302	142679	145655	137848	133218	125485	135523
HCB	5C1biii	18000	18000	18000	18000	18000	18000	18000	18000	18000	18000	18000	18000	49200	93900	117000	223119	270025	366600	432279	1481853	757679	669057	413491	455738	531623	607507	465291	415058	355309	301904	271985	297893