Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: GR Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
NOx	1A2gviii	17867	17174	17126	15120	14992	18370	17859	17855	15049	10475	11893	12831	10067	6765	4240	14586	16277	16164	13860	10026	8073	6807	8110	4019	4305	4606	5100	5256	5346
NOx	1A3bii	22591	23516	22707	22591	22367	19781	19449	19209	18952	18641	17796	17325	16736	16252	15970	15020	14856	14858	14961	12875	11470	9340	7909	8724	9066	8371	8469	8820	9557
NOx	3Da1	16960	16320	15600	12280	11440	12640	12920	12280	12320	11720	10800	10400	10120	9880	10200	8960	8400	9187	7822	6301	8257	7042	6815	7093	6662	6361	7206	7446	7177
NMVOC	1A3bv	32854	32515	31109	29572	29311	28623	26915	26457	25974	23584	20355	19912	19450	20640	19760	17707	14597	13842	12445	13934	14385	13878	16137	15705	15562	14709	14112	13633	10928
NMVOC	1A4bi	18058	18233	18220	18213	18202	18164	18227	18293	18165	17947	17989	17973	17761	17728	17773	17715	17445	18542	14923	12926	10875	14663	17329	15282	15136	15713	13548	13963	13019
NMVOC	1A4cii	9038	9452	8979	8910	8931	8731	8769	8766	8766	8766	8766	8677	9075	7500	6762	6578	6452	6265	6068	5543	4941	2997	12957	3513	1368	1402	1085	1998	973
NH3	1A4bi	2121	2121	2121	2121	2121	2121	2121	2121	2124	2121	2121	2121	2121	2121	2121	2121	2091	2222	1775	1539	1340	1796	2142	1873	1837	1896	1640	1689	1581
NH3	3Da1	29477	28364	27113	21343	19883	21968	22455	21343	21412	20369	18770	18075	17589	17171	17728	15573	14599	15167	14065	10119	13876	11893	10889	11983	10348	10876	11052	10507	10128
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	90431	88233	86033	80266	77083	80530	81564	80776	80811	80668	77506	76716	76612	76062	78879	77061	74809	74908	71995	67477	72971	72071	69923	69645	66503	65218	64771	63859	62964
NH3	NTCOMPL(NECD)	90431	88233	86033	80266	77083	80530	81564	80776	80811	80668	77506	76716	76612	76062	78879	77061	74809	74908	71995	67477	72971	72071	69923	69645	66503	65218	64771	63859	62964
NH3	NTCOMPLIANCE	90431	88233	86033	80266	77083	80530	81564	80776	80811	80668	77506	76716	76612	76062	78879	77061	74809	74908	71995	67477	72971	72071	69923	69645	66503	65218	64771	63859	62964
CO	1A4bi	125470	127153	126975	126882	126792	126587	128356	129183	128140	126041	126837	127088	125288	126052	126134	125683	125028	133493	110013	96442	83511	113117	134028	117846	118474	125460	108025	110761	103069
CO	1A4cii	44117	46049	43924	43701	43768	43123	43245	43234	43234	43234	43234	42650	44235	34680	31698	30629	29598	29304	28356	26656	23774	12503	72740	19098	6807	6916	5296	10477	4619
CO	2C3	18000	18256	18404	18166	17893	16295	17803	16840	18675	20511	21776	21429	21815	22317	22418	22044	22413	22783	22397	18728	19147	23616	23437	24236	24949	26099	26273	26336	26796

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
PM2.5	11B	2150	227	22	32	85	72	214	2818	439	478	203	87	320	24	16	63	182	81	60
PM2.5	1A3dii	1690	2359	2047	2135	2531	2285	2512	2408	2068	3912	2967	1849	2184	1707	1775	2132	2142	2192	2323
PM2.5	1A4bi	23454	23452	23283	23284	23312	23267	22860	24207	19400	16765	14271	19120	22572	19729	19408	20054	17315	17838	16650
PM10	1A3dii	1858	2594	2250	2349	2787	2513	2763	2650	2274	4317	3271	2035	2408	1880	1956	2350	2359	2414	2601
PM10	1A4bi	24043	24041	23869	23870	23898	23853	23435	24817	19888	17186	14622	19593	23132	20222	19894	20555	17748	18284	17066
TSP	1A4bi	25242	25238	25049	25046	25078	25027	24588	26040	20869	18033	15338	20554	24265	21217	20875	21570	18623	19187	17909
BC	1A2e	463	448	477	425	402	428	397	398	456	413	400	397	319	211	256	314	245	256	264
BC	1A2gvii	245	242	248	263	241	258	263	238	229	230	197	127	95	132	176	182	162	158	168
BC	1A3ai(ii)	76	71	66	68	71	69	73	77	79	77	73	1572	68	69	80	72	77	83	100
BC	1A3aii(ii)	5	4	4	4	5	4	4	5	5	7	7	457	6	5	6	6	6	6	7
BC	1A3dii	571	785	697	704	808	756	830	783	691	1138	898	608	659	529	551	658	676	692	748
BC	1A4bi	1939	1939	1929	1930	1931	1928	1918	2057	1668	1461	1276	1729	2074	1833	1825	1912	1651	1699	1588

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Pb	1A2f	4766590	5116470	4783541	4748211	4629262	4637049	4272047	4109437	4314436	3519410	3821892	3975559	2901140	2314487	2296548	1666834	1378711	2146243	1477020	547036	1025969	475267	369627	343810	387002	333842	260881	355550	863716
Pb	1A3bi	315783372	296429850	275932861	261369968	250472475	245339632	246605893	238881758	233719838	217529960	201796898	878226	922285	974134	1005032	1060344	1095172	1152560	1123380	1168244	1275554	1099876	908725	925117	899139	927093	922608	949500	945641
Pb	1A3bii	120835791	116068935	107464859	98836996	94977821	89555216	86089465	81094168	77163816	68448333	60967551	374328	381852	391019	383028	382925	381175	400968	393284	370313	316233	279352	227252	259920	258516	242303	246851	258700	273131
Pb	1A3biii	646132	734888	732691	754408	760301	784845	805863	810214	857992	866773	858976	856684	865704	940965	918632	907744	935238	950323	925349	1188618	815446	735376	542953	630952	640086	596506	644050	690600	688410
Pb	1A3biv	12794239	13053873	10446199	12505784	13279397	13400010	13322238	12908564	13326929	13151625	12945369	93926	103619	108712	109052	112313	102524	102625	110003	112820	118036	117094	119686	115605	118273	123632	111287	111360	107308
Pb	1A3di(i)	437640	399100	454770	533260	564390	600960	532700	534570	602180	533140	619140	607500	543690	560870	566980	507480	548720	562250	550770	465960	484640	496080	405840	380690	331860	315230	303330	379742	390395
Pb	1A4bi	916788	963813	960681	958804	955692	944866	957831	974877	935187	881315	891339	885726	827889	815113	827869	811120	802893	866593	726557	631367	656152	867389	1030565	881121	864065	918005	794361	810650	763989
Cd	1A1a	5713280	5461509	5853282	5821079	6125439	5855755	5699370	6251880	6563489	6446727	6850952	6997930	6872551	6959867	7196886	7200221	6613852	6911413	6698156	6628908	2986239	3028808	2704844	2395289	2689536	699043	636486	802609	760850
Cd	1A2e	1148	933	1021	955	994	614	88021	88878	88140	89859	108911	106489	114370	95717	99872	117259	104649	106064	128562	119399	117639	119707	88852	48339	59927	80100	56492	59273	61952
Cd	1A3di(i)	46360	42060	47610	56060	59150	62480	55740	55970	63540	56100	65460	64780	57970	60110	60900	54680	59200	60850	59690	465960	52320	53760	43920	41050	35700	33670	32330	40683	41942
Cd	1A4bi	383584	384127	384090	384068	384032	383910	384080	384280	384244	383203	383325	383267	382604	382475	382617	382426	382326	412271	334407	294266	306915	405709	494802	421806	408428	427220	371001	378738	358435
Cd	1B2aiv	73496	65428	68457	57069	71441	75796	91545	92835	94381	81942	99032	97369	94115	97640	95074	94875	96278	97798	91565	87373	98823	84099	104433	101444	105544	110644	118249	122555	124069
Cd	2G	585861	597836	610036	622530	654959	693212	1262356	1284824	1307269	1776014	239903	838705	558253	466542	448899	365626	344034	165503	315594	511305	449266	142733	263925	97428	104632	148057	142001	88035	102779
Hg	1A1a	1708036	1635376	1750750	1741735	1831160	1753315	1706815	1869447	1962072	1930494	2053173	2094919	2057929	2086466	2154367	2157342	1985952	2077113	2025528	1993688	1886617	1915372	1915113	1696272	1053669	931405	710833	775810	739000
Hg	1B2aiv	73496	65428	68457	57069	71441	75796	91545	92835	94381	81942	99032	97369	94115	97640	95074	94875	96278	97798	91565	87373	98823	84099	104433	101444	105544	110644	118249	122555	124069
Hg	5C1biii	2090	2090	2090	2090	2090	2090	2090	2090	2090	2090	2090	2090	5712	10902	13584	25904	31350	42562	50188	172043	87967	77677	48006	52911	61721	70532	54020	48188	48985
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	2234586	2197993	2273730	2254602	2352381	2276765	2225282	2387438	2491770	2391790	2554950	2617230	2524568	2520730	2603820	2601801	2422689	2568053	2486639	2501359	2331831	2308957	2282708	2040937	1404261	1297442	1063059	1142717	1132499
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	2234586	2197993	2273730	2254602	2352381	2276765	2225282	2387438	2491770	2391790	2554950	2617230	2524568	2520730	2603820	2601801	2422689	2568053	2486639	2501359	2331831	2308957	2282708	2040937	1404261	1297442	1063059	1142717	1132499
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	2234586	2197993	2273730	2254602	2352381	2276765	2225282	2387438	2491770	2391790	2554950	2617230	2524568	2520730	2603820	2601801	2422689	2568053	2486639	2501359	2331831	2308957	2282708	2040937	1404261	1297442	1063059	1142717	1132499

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
DIOX	1A4bi	24535	24827	24800	24786	24769	24721	24936	25063	24867	24505	24612	24624	24294	24341	24383	24296	23708	24889	19983	17145	14706	19484	22674	19492	19041	19619	17013	17562	16377
HCB	1A4bi	147549	147773	147758	147749	147734	147683	147743	147824	147795	147378	147425	147398	147122	147060	147121	147041	147002	158525	128586	113149	118017	156011	190275	162218	157075	164302	142679	145655	137848
HCB	5C1biii	18000	18000	18000	18000	18000	18000	18000	18000	18000	18000	18000	18000	49200	93900	117000	223119	270025	366600	432279	1481853	757679	669057	413491	455738	531623	607507	465291	415058	421924