Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: GR Submission year: 2019

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2017
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2017
PMs: 2000 - 2017

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
NOx	1A3bii	22591	23516	22707	22591	22367	19781	19449	19209	18952	18641	17796	17325	16736	16252	15970	15020	14856	14858	14961	12875	11470	9340	7909	8724	9066	8371	8469
NMVOC	1A4cii	9038	9452	8979	8910	8931	8731	8769	8766	8766	8766	8766	8677	9075	7500	6762	6578	6452	6265	6068	5543	4941	2997	12957	3513	1368	1402	1085
CO	1A4cii	44117	46049	43924	43701	43768	43123	43245	43234	43234	43234	43234	42650	44235	34680	31698	30629	29598	29304	28356	26656	23774	12503	72740	19098	6807	6916	5296

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
PM2.5	11B	2150	227	22	32	85	72	214	2818	439	478	203	87	320	24	16	63	182
PM2.5	1A3dii	1690	2359	2047	2135	2531	2285	2512	2408	2068	3912	2967	1849	2184	1707	1775	2132	2142
PM2.5	2A1	1569	1577	1517	1528	1528	1618	1592	1565	1477	1124	1030	594	761	899	940	852	921
PM10	11B	2628	278	26	40	104	88	261	3444	536	584	248	106	391	30	19	77	223
PM10	1A3dii	1858	2594	2250	2349	2787	2513	2763	2650	2274	4317	3271	2035	2408	1880	1956	2350	2359
BC	1A2gvii	245	242	248	263	241	258	263	238	229	230	197	127	95	132	176	182	162
BC	1A3ai(ii)	76	71	66	68	71	69	73	77	79	77	73	1572	68	69	80	72	77
BC	1A3aii(ii)	5	4	4	4	5	4	4	5	5	7	7	457	6	5	6	6	6

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Pb	1A2f	4985020	5338974	5007954	4973228	4847702	4860199	4326429	4165438	4365168	3565461	3868623	4021922	2942133	2344468	2323248	1688957	1399818	2168373	1497846	564464	1045944	504468	391121	361695	412137	356498	278775
Pb	1A3bi	315783372	296429850	275932861	261369968	250472475	245339632	246605893	238881758	233719838	217529960	201796898	878226	922285	974134	1005032	1060344	1095172	1152560	1123380	1168244	1275554	1099876	908725	925117	899139	927093	922608
Pb	1A3bii	120835791	116068935	107464859	98836996	94977821	89555216	86089465	81094168	77163816	68448333	60967551	374328	381852	391019	383028	382925	381175	400968	393284	370313	316233	279352	227252	259920	258516	242303	246851
Pb	1A3biii	646132	734888	732691	754408	760301	784845	805863	810214	857992	866773	858976	856684	865704	940965	918632	907744	935238	950323	925349	1188618	815446	735376	542953	630952	640086	596506	644050
Pb	1A3biv	12794239	13053873	10446199	12505784	13279397	13400010	13322238	12908564	13326929	13151625	12945369	93926	103619	108712	109052	112313	102524	102625	110003	112820	118036	117094	119686	115605	118273	123632	111287
Pb	1A3di(i)	437640	399100	454770	533260	564390	600960	532700	534570	602180	533140	619140	607500	543690	560870	566980	507480	548720	562250	550770	465960	484640	496080	405840	380690	331860	315230	303330
Pb	5C1biii	11160	11160	11160	11160	11160	11160	11160	11160	11160	11160	11160	11160	30504	58218	72540	138334	167416	227292	268013	918749	469761	414815	256364	282558	770560	665499	727499
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	461774789	438250703	406334126	385259700	371342170	360720590	358082962	345090166	336680628	310749286	287974852	13873094	12692478	12195237	12409164	11972541	11452445	12480037	11734992	11628903	10798072	9848032	9006496	8696947	9973515	9226018	8556267
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	461774789	438250703	406334126	385259700	371342170	360720590	358082962	345090166	336680628	310749286	287974852	13873094	12692478	12195237	12409164	11972541	11452445	12480037	11734992	11628903	10798072	9848032	9006496	8696947	9973515	9226018	8556267
Cd	1A1a	297093	292874	307292	307702	318203	313631	306358	325780	335974	333928	355550	355541	349300	360297	360734	368253	346830	360908	357179	332959	348369	349459	319074	282912	861442	468998	380111
Cd	1A2e	1148	933	1021	955	994	614	88021	88878	88140	89859	108911	106489	114370	95717	99872	117259	104649	106064	128562	119399	117639	119707	88852	48339	59927	80100	56492
Cd	1A3di(i)	46360	42060	47610	56060	59150	62480	55740	55970	63540	56100	65460	64780	57970	60110	60900	54680	59200	60850	59690	465960	52320	53760	43920	41050	35700	33670	32330
Cd	1B2aiv	73496	65428	68457	57069	71441	75796	91545	92835	94381	81942	99032	97369	94115	97640	95074	94875	96278	97798	91565	87373	98823	84099	104433	101444	105544	110644	118249
Cd	2G	585861	597836	610036	622530	654959	693212	1262356	1284824	1307269	1776014	239903	838705	558253	466542	448899	365626	344034	165503	315594	511305	449266	142733	263925	97428	104632	148057	142001
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1768132	1955466	1912520	1877101	1954014	1970077	2550338	2593467	2602968	3062617	1632540	2228665	1882103	1746724	1797662	1733674	1669661	1519453	1746696	1958870	1859272	1540834	1605240	1330666	1923690	1589512	1449812
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	1768132	1955466	1912520	1877101	1954014	1970077	2550338	2593467	2602968	3062617	1632540	2228665	1882103	1746724	1797662	1733674	1669661	1519453	1746696	1958870	1859272	1540834	1605240	1330666	1923690	1589512	1449812
Hg	1A1a	697429	670959	715922	712993	747587	719209	700532	763695	800079	789905	841194	855515	840755	855051	878808	882564	816587	854853	1433946	1406306	1886617	1915372	1915113	1696272	1053669	931405	730490
Hg	1A4cii	814150	861360	797340	777940	783760	727500	738170	737200	737200	737200	737200	746900	824500	901130	762420	765700	802750	713673	694450	546250	485450	518700	56050	88350	108300	117800	97850
Hg	1B2aiv	73496	65428	68457	57069	71441	75796	91545	92835	94381	81942	99032	97369	94115	97640	95074	94875	96278	97798	91565	87373	98823	84099	104433	101444	105544	110644	118249
Hg	5C1biii	7740	7740	7740	7740	7740	7740	7740	7740	7740	7740	7740	7740	21156	40377	50310	95941	116111	157638	185880	637197	325802	287694	177801	195967	534421	461556	504556

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
DIOX	1B2aiv	82143	73125	76511	63783	79846	84713	102315	103757	105484	91582	110683	108824	105188	109126	106259	106037	107605	109303	102338	97652	110449	93993	116719	113379	117962	123662	132160
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	850519	810165	866098	848154	902600	871462	868420	942418	985168	955263	1028655	1046767	1036653	1067321	1107930	1148407	1092683	1172939	1162656	1568902	1249431	1210218	1148446	1061668	1336306	1229542	1125380
DIOX	NTCOMPLIANCE	850519	810165	866098	848154	902600	871462	868420	942418	985168	955263	1028655	1046767	1036653	1067321	1107930	1148407	1092683	1172939	1162656	1568902	1249431	1210218	1148446	1061668	1336306	1229542	1125380
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	2103239	2060619	2208908	2183974	2286015	2189709	2096352	2296148	2437880	2404338	2498670	2564618	2523519	2591915	2716218	2806268	2663528	2860358	2838107	3910739	3065923	2988417	2795122	2554562	3222170	2815157	2541027
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	2103239	2060619	2208908	2183974	2286015	2189709	2096352	2296148	2437880	2404338	2498670	2564618	2523519	2591915	2716218	2806268	2663528	2860358	2838107	3910739	3065923	2988417	2795122	2554562	3222170	2815157	2541027