Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: GR Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
NOx	1A3bii	22591	23516	22707	22591	22367	19781	19449	19209	18952	18641	17796	17325	16736	16252	15970	15020	14856	14858	14961	12875	11470	9340	7909	8724	9066	8371
NMVOC	1A4cii	9038	9452	8979	8910	8931	8731	8769	8766	8766	8766	8766	8677	9075	7500	6762	6578	6452	6265	6068	5543	4941	2997	12957	3513	1368	1402
SOx	1B2aiv	8935	7954	8322	6938	8685	9214	11129	11286	11474	9962	12039	11837	11441	11870	11558	11534	11704	11889	11131	10622	12014	10224	12696	12332	12831	13451
NH3	3B4gi	2398	2446	2444	2481	2491	2464	2473	2509	2519	2606	2630	2435	2551	2471	2594	3091	2680	2566	2471	2376	2094	2397	2612	2874	2678	2681
CO	1A4cii	44117	46049	43924	43701	43768	43123	43245	43234	43234	43234	43234	42650	44235	34680	31698	30629	29598	29304	28356	26656	23774	12503	72740	19098	6807	6916
CO	3F	29027	40384	33041	31719	34488	32372	31858	32259	30143	29645	31322	32090	31066	28803	32083	32436	29814	29067	34958	33416	29977	30637	30048	29912	28369	27904

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
PM2.5	11B	2150	227	22	32	85	72	214	2818	439	478	203	87	320	24	16	62
PM2.5	1A2e	2472	2370	2509	2350	2052	2005	1928	1904	2055	1806	1718	1640	1455	1157	1380	1569
PM2.5	1A3dii	1690	2359	2047	2135	2531	2285	2512	2408	2068	3912	2967	1849	2184	1707	1775	2132
PM10	11B	2628	278	26	40	104	88	261	3444	536	584	248	106	391	30	19	76
PM10	1A3dii	1858	2594	2250	2349	2787	2513	2763	2650	2274	4317	3271	2035	2408	1880	1956	2350
TSP	1A3dii	1858	2594	2250	2349	2787	2513	2763	2650	2274	4317	3271	2035	2408	1880	1956	2350
BC	11B	194	20	2	3	8	6	19	254	39	43	18	8	29	2	1	6
BC	1A3ai(ii)						69	73	77	79	77	73	1572	68	69	80	72
BC	1A3aii(ii)						4	4	5	5	7	7	457	6	5	6	6

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A2b	995071	1219655	1218190	1193274	1150354	1173983	1229067	1216646	1361776	1490817	1513319	1511409	1561142	1580475	1512932	1200046	1274482	1234791	1097867	750099	654733	574190	54268	35766	52112	19129
Pb	1A2c	1405711	1120471	950458	988691	875669	1088567	1566186	1508319	1473584	1001490	1179539	1072296	918797	1123616	1570812	1225264	1243178	973969	1042831	1096327	1263892	727361	417689	69864	133676	106226
Pb	1A2e	1566027	1613838	1635682	1676209	1605278	1648479	1944641	1799591	1896881	1659203	1838901	1739795	1823841	1836319	1419256	1170826	1216311	1167966	1100634	896774	806815	685263	804277	890832	1037711	1043816
Pb	1A3bi	315783372	296429850	275932861	261369968	250472475	245339632	246605893	238881758	233719838	217529960	201796898	878226	922285	974134	1005032	1060344	1095172	1152560	1123380	1168244	1275554	1099876	908725	925117	899139	927093
Pb	1A3bii	120835791	116068935	107464859	98836996	94977821	89555216	86089465	81094168	77163816	68448333	60967551	374328	381852	391019	383028	382925	381175	400968	393284	370313	316233	279352	227252	259920	258516	242303
Pb	1A3biii	646132	734888	732691	754408	760301	784845	805863	810214	857992	866773	858976	856684	865704	940965	918632	907744	935238	950323	925349	1188618	815446	735376	542953	630952	640086	596506
Pb	1A3biv	12794239	13053873	10446199	12505784	13279397	13400010	13322238	12908564	13326929	13151625	12945369	93926	103619	108712	109052	112313	102524	102625	110003	112820	118036	117094	119686	115605	118273	123632
Pb	1A3di(i)	437640	399100	454770	533260	564390	600960	532700	534570	602180	533140	619140	607500	543690	560870	566980	507480	548720	562250	550770	465960	484640	496080	405840	380690	331860	315230
Pb	5C1biii	11160	11160	11160	11160	11160	11160	11160	11160	11160	11160	11160	11160	30504	58218	72540	138334	167416	227292	268013	918749	469761	414815	256364	282558	770560	665499
Cd	1A1a	297093	292874	307292	307702	318203	313631	306358	325780	335974	333928	355550	355541	349300	360297	360734	368253	346830	360908	357179	332959	348369	349459	319074	282912	861442	755189
Cd	1A2e	21036	21678	21972	22516	21563	22144	110830	109603	111087	109576	130504	126822	135609	117642	116097	129138	117656	118602	139581	127832	124917	125483	97043	58840	72061	91781
Cd	1A3di(i)	46360	42060	47610	56060	59150	62480	55740	55970	63540	56100	65460	64780	57970	60110	60900	54680	59200	60850	59690	465960	52320	53760	43920	41050	35700	33670
Cd	1B2aiv	73496	65428	68457	57069	71441	75796	91545	92835	94381	81942	99032	97369	94115	97640	95074	94875	96278	97798	91565	87373	98823	84099	104433	101444	105544	110644
Cd	2G	585861	597836	610036	622530	654959	693212	1262356	1284824	1307269	1776014	239903	838705	558253	466542	448899	365626	344034	165503	315594	511305	449266	142733	263925	97428	104632	148057
Cd	3F	382966	532808	435927	418486	455018	427095	420319	425600	397685	391113	413241	423377	409865	380004	423287	427948	393355	383498	461215	440872	395497	404207	396433	394635	374280	368145
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1902443	2088387	2044645	2000618	2076378	2113915	2714227	2760079	2760879	3208870	1786168	2379409	2034734	1901368	1935974	1906118	1853758	1685050	1905447	2091971	1971893	1618570	1687749	1397657	2029481	1987742
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	1902443	2088387	2044645	2000618	2076378	2113915	2714227	2760079	2760879	3208870	1786168	2379409	2034734	1901368	1935974	1906118	1853758	1685050	1905447	2091971	1971893	1618570	1687749	1397657	2029481	1987742
Hg	1A1a	697429	670959	715922	712993	747587	719209	700532	763695	800079	789905	841194	855515	840755	855051	878808	882564	816587	854853	1433946	1406306	1886617	1915372	1915113	1696272	1053669	914237
Hg	1A2b	58665	71905	71819	70350	67819	69212	72460	71728	80410	88481	90106	89912	93000	94407	90444	72159	76273	74083	66071	45488	40043	35308	8091	9423	8834	6722
Hg	1A2c	82874	66064	56042	58296	51753	64262	92416	89016	88058	59223	69744	63428	54567	66729	93254	73431	74134	58313	63323	66846	77404	46942	28921	7083	10641	10014
Hg	1A2f	584377	593630	574995	545006	546488	629501	656354	664672	630380	564028	594814	608690	555693	512381	465686	644520	665785	650839	595102	459687	399538	260744	308439	282958	308174	296760
Hg	1A4cii	814150	861360	797340	777940	783760	727500	738170	737200	737200	737200	737200	746900	824500	901130	762420	765700	802750	713673	694450	546250	485450	518700	56050	88350	108300	117800
Hg	1B2aiv	73496	65428	68457	57069	71441	75796	91545	92835	94381	81942	99032	97369	94115	97640	95074	94875	96278	97798	91565	87373	98823	84099	104433	101444	105544	110644
Hg	3F	60926	84765	69352	66577	72389	67947	66869	67709	63268	62223	65743	67355	65206	60455	67341	68083	62579	61011	73375	70139	62920	64306	63069	62783	59545	58569
Hg	5C1biii	7740	7740	7740	7740	7740	7740	7740	7740	7740	7740	7740	7740	21156	40377	50310	95941	116111	157638	185880	637197	325802	287694	177801	195967	534421	461556

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
DIOX	1B2aiv	82143	73125	76511	63783	79846	84713	102315	103757	105484	91582	110683	108824	105188	109126	106259	106037	107605	109303	102338	97652	110449	93993	116719	113379	117962	123662
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	865614	825103	880947	862035	916352	887627	886842	961146	1002919	971705	1045926	1063714	1053812	1084707	1123479	1167792	1113378	1191555	1180502	1583865	1262093	1218957	1157721	1070118	1345644	1186373
DIOX	NTCOMPLIANCE	865614	825103	880947	862035	916352	887627	886842	961146	1002919	971705	1045926	1063714	1053812	1084707	1123479	1167792	1113378	1191555	1180502	1583865	1262093	1218957	1157721	1070118	1345644	1186373
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	2149653	2106552	2254567	2226658	2328300	2239413	2152979	2353714	2492437	2454864	2551745	2616697	2576249	2645340	2764000	2865845	2727131	2917571	2892954	3956721	3104830	3015273	2823631	2580544	3250818	2841662
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	2149653	2106552	2254567	2226658	2328300	2239413	2152979	2353714	2492437	2454864	2551745	2616697	2576249	2645340	2764000	2865845	2727131	2917571	2892954	3956721	3104830	3015273	2823631	2580544	3250818	2841662
PCB	1A2c	1783365	1421493	1205805	1254309	1110920	1381016	1986950	1913537	1869442	1270543	1496425	1360371	1165627	1425470	1992805	1554408	1577144	1235609	1322947	1390805	1603370	922666	529793	88556	169517	134667
PCB	1A2e	1986751	2047407	2075119	2126533	2036547	2091354	2237477	2051494	2174429	1868331	2046113	1926763	2012628	2077607	1537497	1177915	1268395	1202761	1058023	823807	714315	554154	786560	1003076	1158927	1113443
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	21923771	22213411	21465584	20856242	20240418	22482443	23616663	24211467	23748455	21206903	22486907	22899080	22964844	32467189	31621754	34920441	35977628	35491060	51985849	45002445	42987912	39113478	37684410	36387908	37338888	36589512
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	21923771	22213411	21465584	20856242	20240418	22482443	23616663	24211467	23748455	21206903	22486907	22899080	22964844	32467189	31621754	34920441	35977628	35491060	51985849	45002445	42987912	39113478	37684410	36387908	37338888	36589512