Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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TIME SERIES

Party: GR      Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key

 

Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
NOx1A2gviii1550214982147951461214717173771713517406160261487416129170171667414265150962369621428216872021516480137059022121111339213579 
NMVOC1A4ci96551016395639435945590569149911891199163920391639695926481547302769368496621563350324760595323801703 
SOx1A3di(i)1474701323041475821753881837961887341710341719941988921744642058602077581858761949781985181755441894562016601984061664021724561787201455404386038340 
SOx1B2aiv8935795483226938868592141112911286114749962120391183711441118701155811534117041188911131106221201410224126961233212831 
NH31A3bi150290430570710850990113012701410155016901830197021102250239025302670281021001993212715301522 
NH33B27887766778899101111121415161718191180011900 
NH33B3116471162211642116911178211867119031193111955120031209112139121441201011891118141181611888118931186411834118221181055305540 
NH33B4a715571627182723073017387745774977517753475577582757475047393729572477157707469896908685168192019 
NH33B4d36433932030429027626525424623823422922522021821721622222322221921921868206830 
NH33B4f63536354639264406425636863466357632762556116604659876001602059465865569656565621559255545532320330 
NH3NATIONALTOTAL84688830408132073655718197424375328739587436773277708316963568953689486989267524664776815764577620516439761602612326057060791 
CO1A1a35982344193647936587383863675535764392864183842102454484627345687465304816648175447394816946324449404304744693449183978636458 
CO1A4ci877439153487644874578738586594868458664386653870178745885692876296796063295445574564342578408053958635685237761056073195015549 
CO3F28753402053273531362341603201531470318602980929319310213178630746284783177432111294702872734622330713251333662341963449235148