Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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TIME SERIES

Party: GR      Submission year: 2014

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2012
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2012
PMs: 2000 - 2012

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key

 

Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012
NOx1A2fi150751498214795146121471717377171351740616026148741612917017166741426515096236962142821687202151648013705902212111
NOx1A3bi1442701462731467411504431518431445601461011483091496551512991512331531211516841514221520611471441488291469711419681364631036838544768103
NOx1A4ci4233743941406833966939959370963766737614376143762237631381224202345806388304087240879366563520927751246712633514234
NOxNATIONALTOTAL325888335683342108339745348341328840332826346314368997367520359217382080383189393316398879416536412722414070392186379515319434296029258600
NMVOC1A4ci977810163956394359455906591499118911991639203916396959264815474837533688966005618503247602578
NMVOC1B2aiv2222321602228082202323387253142587826475273662649728576282792920730009289633175833245348833369033470308872811030580
NMVOC2A62235924442257572729227730327723321033649378143880044500453774724040335453773025139677332105140540773294841260510851
SOx1A1b2256323635220881896123424236562557824289272602633631257279552797828310347992570537366311413435537497370743088518757
NH31A3bi1502904305707108509901130127014101550169018301970211022502390253026702810210019932127
CO1A4ci8798691534876448745787385866448684586643866538701787458856928762967960632954315643532426664078139569356852377612859
CO4F2705737930308572954032226302592965129972281282761829209299122891026686298043009327642269443242631080304693157432076