Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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Time series

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TIME SERIES

Party: GE      Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NOx	2B2						940	1552	1686	1236	2159	2262	901	1866	2068	2241	2262	2726	3076	1962	3624	3803	3910	3874	3940	3922	4146	3209	3693	3960	4249
NMVOC	1A3bi	6448	5563	4228	3540	2360	1237	6835	5267	3086	2830	2068	3235	3337	3400	3036	3546	3513	4363	3808	3725	3689	4146	4476	4195	6470	7000	8081	7551	7145	6942
NMVOC	1A4bi	8916	9639	15423	24339	4435	16005	22909	18416	16830	15920	15124	15056	15030	15054	15056	7725	8317	8831	8403	8402	7920	6711	6572	11941	11528	9868	9644	9076	6732	6130
NMVOC	1B1a	2091	1515	362	167	98	95	52	7	24	19	12	8	10	13	13	8	8	15	47	135	214	282	337	323	239	245	237	214	110	12
NMVOC	1B2av	1216	1040	770	676	434	230	1356	1044	606	550	394	622	646	656	580	668	656	818	702	700	700	798	848	747	761	846	1193	1125	1078	1099
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	58306	57782	54588	59664	35476	42591	56203	49108	43138	42265	40669	41103	41422	42077	42207	36010	35261	37086	36821	35897	36676	37012	37516	37690	38770	37571	38658	36969	34657	33528
NMVOC	NTCOMPL(NECD)	58306	57782	54588	59664	35476	42591	56203	49108	43138	42265	40669	41103	41422	42077	42207	26269	35261	37086	36821	35897	36676	37012	37516	37690	38770	37571	38658	36969	34657	33528
NMVOC	NTCOMPLIANCE	58306	57782	54588	59664	35476	42591	56203	49108	43138	42265	40669	41103	41422	42077	42207	36010	35261	37086	36821	35897	36676	37012	37516	37690	38770	37571	38658	36969	34657	33528
SOx	1A1a	82047	54534	34824	23329	19409	25089	5541	4901	4032	3374	3306	203	222	222	318	489	177	179	44	136	110	29	6	5	6	7	779	1061	638	7
SOx	1A2a	7550	3808	1897	1278	976	149	150	123	199	5	5							16	350	388	157	709	1042	4038	3716	3474	3191	3538	3770	3791
SOx	1A2e	268	146	73	55	50	12	17	18	21	16	19	23	22	28	18	3	3	2	13	14	7	25	35	133	123	116	107	118	126	220
SOx	1A3c	1945	2030	523	519	2191	4561	849	6	986	776	304	2	2	2	3	2	2	3	2	4	5	4	4	5	8	6	8	7	7	4
SOx	1A4ai	1339	1138	1000	881	908	146	44	65	141	79	61	10	10	10	10	20	20	71	194	740	175	137	280	38	60	92	73	64	19	10
NH3	1A4bi	1004	1093	1764	2804	456	1866	2672	2146	1961	1856	1751	1751	1751	1751	1751	894	964	1023	970	967	914	777	753	1386	1339	1145	1117	1051	778	707
CO	1A2a	8008	4184	2126	1447	1094	191	208	167	236	34	34							39	387	427	189	776	1120	4188	3857	3610	3316	3678	3918	3942
CO	1A3bi	53592	46138	34838	29520	19494	10243	57561	44341	25919	23701	17234	27019	27924	28424	25315	29468	29129	36214	31470	30936	30712	34637	37244	34376	48660	52891	63483	59430	56382	55356
CO	1A4bi	61155	65679	104341	163863	31375	106860	152876	122996	112530	106394	101398	100669	100369	100596	100621	51809	55730	59214	56434	56496	53234	45085	44365	80022	77183	66165	64745	60975	45326	41372
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	148874	142785	162234	213997	70036	133566	226898	182457	153782	144205	132459	139739	140481	141113	138746	94800	99059	110808	108249	106033	108379	113908	113761	124847	137210	130489	139975	132429	113445	108593
CO	NTCOMPL(NECD)	148874	142785	162234	213997	70036	133566	226898	182457	153782	144205	132459	139739	140481	141113	138746	94800	99059	110808	108249	106033	108379	113908	113761	124847	137210	130489	139975	132429	113445	108593
CO	NTCOMPLIANCE	148874	142785	162234	213997	70036	133566	226898	182457	153782	144205	132459	139739	140481	141113	138746	94800	99059	110808	108249	106033	108379	113908	113761	124847	137210	130489	139975	132429	113445	108593

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
PM10	2A1	95	114	119	139	180	291	288	381	412	54	114	220	270	270	321	327	288	296	278	330
BC	1A2e	65	65	65	65	65	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	1	3	5	3	5	5
BC	1A4ai	28	23	23	23	23	44	46	77	81	77	59	65	76	17	18	19	13	12	8	6
BC	1A4cii	32	13	15	11	17	27	31	40	36	6	15	42	45	9	5	10	16	13	11	10

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A1a	789095	523577	338298	228408	191346	244301	52991	46870	38544	32251	32493	5568	5904	5905	8335	13010	4709	4717	3486	11459	9372	2108	34	29	33	37	6938	9451	5681	36
Pb	1A2a	1116736	560363	279239	187447	143448	21057	21064	17234	28700	18	19							1925	51637	57372	22957	105178	154886	600369	552570	516247	474183	525807	560224	564363
Pb	1A2e	56760	29458	14584	19809	36844	11161	20965	27214	30969	33817	39261	40509	40201	41506	39435	543	544	225	2642	2907	1219	5208	7534	29373	27049	26476	25487	26910	29715	49721
Pb	1A2f	87367	54821	32938	19522	6782	3067	3832	3891	11662	19041	19816	23941	25010	29194	37750	60966	60299	79870	86309	22578	47941	92121	113251	112968	134498	136749	120620	124039	116507	138309
Pb	1A4ai	173501	154282	155384	128389	187496	50162	33926	35481	22007	16814	18229	13854	13852	13854	13856	26707	27829	52663	74120	158185	60660	57663	85909	12993	15138	16897	12491	10761	5650	3815
Pb	1A4bi	443220	474394	736428	1137612	312378	719960	1030619	830963	759546	715904	700245	684702	678479	684688	684689	357238	381270	406978	392833	397935	368268	305787	312026	536577	518605	443513	435443	408220	301294	273920
Pb	1A4cii	974936	1919642	1118532	929590	831341	846456	1012725	823783	778437	559266	72086	29829	32314	24857	38528	60900	69600	88243	80786	12429	32314	94457	52400	10435	10435	1304	11739	16957	14348	11739
Pb	1B1b	353780	256120	65360	24548	10488	13262	6270	114
Pb	2A3	340000	246500	299200	193800	96900	61200	40800	54400	40800	42500	52700	59500	62900	66300	78200	81600	73100	78200	56100	23800	32300	44200	40800	49300	86700	95200	115600	134300	99983	101786
Pb	2C1	6748200	6748200	3560400	1040980	556600	412620	391920	478860	258060	32200	465							609639	573254	720482	479900	721206	953769	1155538	655034	729099	481592	795498	1286840	1186555
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	11289390	11163321	6764738	4052529	2502602	2417907	2761214	2428331	2037561	1511580	947505	871424	872986	880961	915612	619842	650120	1373081	1364808	1469895	1085587	1458001	1745595	2540864	2043273	2013725	1742667	2122941	2485110	2392499
Pb	NTCOMPL(NECD)	11289390	11163321	6764738	4052529	2502602	2417907	2761214	2428331	2037561	1511580	947505	871424	872986	880961	915612	619842	650120	1373081	1364808	1469895	1085587	1458001	1745595	2540864	2043273	2013725	1742667	2122941	2485110	2392499
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	11289390	11163321	6764738	4052529	2502602	2417907	2761214	2428331	2037561	1511580	947505	871424	872986	880961	915612	619842	650120	1373081	1364808	1469895	1085587	1458001	1745595	2540864	2043273	2013725	1742667	2122941	2485110	2392499
Cd	1A1a	198152	130869	84856	59273	50701	64312	13978	12364	10166	8506	8642	1758	1860	1860	2622	4098	1482	1483	1161	3824	3128	699	6	5	5	6	834	1136	683	6
Cd	1A2a	15011	7538	3757	2523	1930	284	285	233	387	1	1							27	695	772	309	1414	2082	8065	7423	6936	6371	7064	7527	7582
Cd	1A2e	856	448	223	4846	14193	4714	9408	12532	14103	16166	18773	18792	18787	18807	18776	8	9	4	40	44	19	79	114	441	406	903	1393	909	1456	1266
Cd	1A3bi	6828	5878	4437	3762	2483	1305	7339	5654	3304	3021	2196	3444	3559	3623	3226	3755	3711	4614	4009	3942	3914	4415	4746	4377	6166	6704	8064	7550	7164	7038
Cd	1A4bi	187073	203555	328262	521418	86174	346635	496213	398619	364223	344674	325462	325280	325207	325279	325279	166157	179186	190103	180373	179912	170003	144299	140007	257414	248734	212637	207480	195135	144538	131288
Cd	1A4ci	611	10245	11790	11660	14582	50	52	7	50	5	4	2	2	1	2	4	6215	350	306	474	2	6	6	23	11	23	23	36	26	12
Cd	2C1	29340	29340	15480	4526	2420	1794	1704	2082	1122	140	2							2651	2492	3133	2087	3136	4147	5024	2848	3170	2094	3459	5595	5159
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	510679	445379	502027	647560	219395	441860	548248	451935	402287	383566	368460	362845	363426	364219	366491	199030	215634	235454	225150	220648	206249	186511	188267	296210	291985	257845	253343	244297	192180	178692
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	510679	445379	502027	647560	219395	441860	548248	451935	402287	383566	368460	362845	363426	364219	366491	199030	215634	235454	225150	220648	206249	186511	188267	296210	291985	257845	253343	244297	192180	178692
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	510679	445379	502027	647560	219395	441860	548248	451935	402287	383566	368460	362845	363426	364219	366491	199030	215634	235454	225150	220648	206249	186511	188267	296210	291985	257845	253343	244297	192180	178692
Hg	1A2a	69382	37507	19501	13340	9996	1908	2209	1740	2229	539	527							547	3517	3860	1862	7009	9934	35593	32795	30700	28219	31320	33328	33650
Hg	1A2f	43684	27411	16469	9761	3391	1534	1916	1945	5831	9521	9908	11971	12505	14597	18875	30483	30150	39935	43154	11289	23971	46060	56625	56484	67249	68375	60310	62019	58253	69154
Hg	2C1	146700	146700	77400	22630	12100	8970	8520	10410	5610	700	10							13253	12462	15663	10433	15678	20734	25120	14240	15850	10469	17293	27975	25795
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	444600	363273	241677	163608	117041	100719	88133	82995	80062	74418	74859	72321	71299	73589	78706	84205	82960	109675	114538	95056	90882	120251	140537	172259	169138	168954	165559	166803	172640	183239
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	444600	363273	241677	163608	117041	100719	88133	82995	80062	74418	74859	72321	71299	73589	78706	84205	82960	109675	114538	95056	90882	120251	140537	172259	169138	168954	165559	166803	172640	183239
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	444600	363273	241677	163608	117041	100719	88133	82995	80062	74418	74859	72321	71299	73589	78706	84205	82960	109675	114538	95056	90882	120251	140537	172259	169138	168954	165559	166803	172640	183239

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
DIOX	1A4bi	11942	12910	20608	32504	6088	21349	30553	24568	22464	21240	20198	20090	20045	20083	20084	10313	11098	11789	11226	11231	10576	8945	8770	15896	15352	13136	12838	12073	8949	8141
DIOX	2C1	4401	4401	2322	679	363	269	256	312	168	21	0							398	374	470	313	470	622	754	427	475	314	519	839	774
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	18991	18966	24046	34035	7493	21969	31068	25151	22858	21449	20417	20291	20245	20286	20285	10419	11254	12415	11941	12185	11101	9765	9878	17717	16819	14639	14142	13648	10788	9943
DIOX	NTCOMPL(NECD)	18991	18966	24046	34035	7493	21969	31068	25151	22858	21449	20417	20291	20245	20286	20285	10419	11254	12415	11941	12185	11101	9765	9878	17717	16819	14639	14142	13648	10788	9943
DIOX	NTCOMPLIANCE	18991	18966	24046	34035	7493	21969	31068	25151	22858	21449	20417	20291	20245	20286	20285	10419	11254	12415	11941	12185	11101	9765	9878	17717	16819	14639	14142	13648	10788	9943
HCB	1A4bi	71962	78302	126267	200557	33187	133320	190850	153315	140085	132565	125183	125109	125080	125109	125109	63909	68919	73119	69379	69203	65389	55500	53854	99003	95665	81782	79798	75050	55589	50492
HCB	2C1	44010	44010	23220	6789	3630	2691	2556	3123	1683	210	3							3976	3739	4699	3130	4704	6220	7536	4272	4755	3141	5188	8392	7738
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	201187	188004	196652	231793	63172	146049	202886	167411	149517	142010	135986	135977	135998	136228	136628	71633	79214	89444	86488	83935	77546	72295	74581	6616542	12905654	19197269	22834227	21094048	6715874	5287722
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	201187	188004	196652	231793	63172	146049	202886	167411	149517	142010	135986	135977	135998	136228	136628	71633	79214	89444	86488	83935	77546	72295	74581	6616542	12905654	19197269	22834227	21094048	6715874	5287722
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	201187	188004	196652	231793	63172	146049	202886	167411	149517	142010	135986	135977	135998	136228	136628	71633	79214	89444	86488	83935	77546	72295	74581	6616542	12905654	19197269	22834227	21094048	6715874	5287722